Trent Lott says that he would have given Obama's SCOTUS nominee a hearing and that he supports John Kasich for President. If that doesn't tell you how much the Republican party has moved, nothing will.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/07/politi...les/index.html

Rules vary, but when the Rubio delegates come unbound many of the trump delegates become unbound too

Some % of Rubio's delegates get unbound *before* the first ballot if Rubio isn't on the ballot (same for Kasich/Carson). I don't know exactly how many. This does bring up the point that I have no idea what the rules for being placed on the ballot are or whether they can be changed on the spot.

e: actually, this is the eight state rule, isn't it...which means unless they change the rule at the convention itself none of the three will even be on the first ballot. This brings up the question of whether a bound Rubio delegate can vote at all and whether an invalid vote is counted as part of the 50% requirement. I suspect that the answer for most of them is they'll be unbound from the beginning.

How could Rubio not be on the first ballot?

I'm a little skeptical that the brokered convention scenario leads to Terrible Consequences for the GOP if they pick Kasich or Ryan or someone. To be clear, the only nightmare scenario for the GOPe is if popular rage leads to a collapse in the downballot races. There's not going to be an actual revolution, and even if there are riots, well that's what gated communities are for, right?

So the question is, if the GOPe uses arcane rules-lawyering to give the nomination to someone boring and establishment-friendly, what do the rubes actually do? Do they stay home and not vote against Hillary? Maybe, but they didn't do that when they got Romney instead of Herman Cain. Also, having Paul Ryan as candidate will probably do less for Dem turnout than either Trump or Cruz. If they have FNC and some of the other brainwashing apparatus in their corner, it seems like they ought to be able to limit the damage. And then hope for 2020 that Trump turns out to have been a uniquely talented demagogue and no one else is able to replicate his success at suborning their suckers.

wait wut

Out of curiosity, how do you know this? Did your family immigrate recently?

FWIW, I was born in the US, but I found out a while ago that my family came into the US undocumented and without vetting, they just came in without even a tourist visa. perhaps you think my parents and I get should be kicked out of the country?

Rule 40(b) of the RNC.

That's easy. Lots of them'd break third party. Most of the rest are gonna ask everybody running under the GOP banner for litmus tests - are you pro Cruz/Trump or against Cruz/Trump? - and then refuse to vote for anyone who picks the wrong side. Also, lots of opportunists who see the writing on the wall would immediately center their campaign around running against the elites imposing the candidate on them from above. Democrats would probably get 1984 GOP numbers out of this. Total slaughter.

I bet there are a bunch of GOPe types who are hopeful this means that he will win California

Rubio's secret plan is literally to saw off Florida into the sea

I'll sign on to that

But people voting for the Natural Law Party for president presumably vote for GOP down-ballet, don't they? The more obvious danger is that the GOPe nominee is so despised that nobody bothers to show up, but GOP seems to do well in low-turnout election, and there's the Hillary factor, so that seems to present less of a downside. All the other catastrophe scenarios seem to require the racist rubes to vote for someone with a D after their names, which seems like a bit of a stretch.

Rule 40 doesn't seem to ban him from the first ballot, and it is easily changed

I like this

Isn't disproven by Minnesota either

Is it illegal to straight up give unbound delegates cash? Asking for a friend.

is Trump going to a 3rd party (or independent) a realistic option if he decides he wants to do that in July? would he have enough time to get on ballots, etc?

So Rubio is basically a water-type Pokemon.

At this point it's looking like the more likely outcome is Rubio or Mitt launching a third party to stop Trump.

Is this actually a reality show?

Is the media paying Trump?

3rd party run will get good ratings.

Why is everyone ascribing ID to Cruz? Is there a poll I haven't seen? It's a primary, and if nothing else, the counties in Nevada that abut Idaho were very strongly Trump.

Also, HI is a caucus, but anyone can sign up for the Republican party at the door and participate. Not as bad for Trump, although I don't see what few Republican Hawaiians there are as actually being as rile-up-able about things when living on an island paradise, granted.

I do know they came through Ellis Island

He doesn't have to get on too many ballots to completely hose the GOP.

Rubio breaking his pledge would be awful for him

Yeah, it's funny, the pledge was supposed to be a trap to stop TRUMP from going 3rd party, but if he wins outright, it will wind up snaring the establishment guys.

right, just won't know if he would bother if he doesn't have a path to actually winning.

like yeah if he just gets on Florida and Ohio and Pennsylvania ballots he could guarantee the Democrats win but what's his incentive for doing so? spite?