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Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee? Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?

12-04-2011 , 12:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
He doesnt need a strong decrease. A continuing steady fall with 50-200k jobs created every month will be enough provided stuff like the Fed loans to banks doesnt get hung round his neck.
Fed loans to banks is not a story and clearly had nothing to do with Obama.
12-04-2011 , 12:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Murphy
The analysis I've read says Newt might have some staying power at the top as opposed to the other flavors of the month.
People here seem to be somewhat misreading...
WHY Newt has soared to the lead...
And WHY he will have some staying power.

It's not some random, flavor-of-the-month event...
Chance has nothing to do with it.

There is a STRONG case to be made AGAINST Obama...
But Obama and his team are so good at Orwellian propaganda...
And the mainstream media is so in-the-tank for Obama...
And the GOP is so co-opted by Trojan Horse RINOs...
Like McCain, Huntsman, etc...
That GOP has TOUGH uphill battle to ARTICULATE that case.

Newt has shown that he can ARTICULATE it the best by far...
No one is even close, not Romney, not Paul...
This 1995 article by Arianna Huffington "Why Newt Must Run"...
Explains precisely why Newt is winning today...
And why Newt will defeat Obama in 11 months.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Conten...7/009pomwg.asp

The #1 word in the above essay is "articulate".
12-04-2011 , 12:24 AM
Actually if the economy does pick up the uneployment rate will RISE. There are so many working age people that don't count as looking for a job, that when they start to be counted because they are looking, the precentage of unempoyed will go up.

Let's not forget for every one new job during this good (for Obama) unempoyment report, 2.5 people gave up looking for work altogether.

If the same precentage of people were counted as they were the day Obama was elected, the new unemployment rate would be 11%.

Reported numbers aren't going to mean a thing. People are going to have to feel and see the improvement. Reagan had months with over a million new jobs with a smaller population.
12-04-2011 , 12:38 AM
I'm thinking that Newt's White Southern Male advantage has been severely underrated this whole time.
He has little going for him IMO if you peel back the first layer of angry-white-guy-like-me-hates-gubt appearance.
12-04-2011 , 12:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by peetar69
Huntsman is not being supported by but one handful out of 100 republican primary voters. There is no reason for him to be discussed in a "who will be the R nominee thread". Ron Paul isn't going to win, but he has four times the support and some original ideas so it's cool to bring him up here.

I beleive you folks are underestimating how Newt will do vs Obama as much as you underestimated his stategy for the primaries.

Newt knows how to exploit Obamas' weakness the right way. He has the guts to do it also. Remember how Tpaw went after Rommney in interveiws, and then couldn't follow through when they were on the same stage? I am confident that Newt not only has the stones to follow through, but knows how to get max value by having his strongest point being in reponse to Obamas response to him. This isn't just in the debates, he knows how to play the overall campaign game.
Im curious how you expect Newt to exploit the weaknesses of Obama.

Newt: Yo, that Obamacare is bad
Obama: what is the worst bit?
Newt: The individual mandate which i invented
Obama: Zing?

Newt: yo, we need more drilling, energy independence!
Obama: ive issued more on shore drilling permits than any other president, i support off shore drilling however given the disaster of Deep Horizon i put a stop to some off shore drilling until the risks can be evaluated as we cannot afford to have another disaster like that
Newt: err, yeah, i agree

Newt: yo, illegal immigrants are bad
Obama: ive deported more illegals than any other president but we need to realise as Ronald Reagan did that there needs to be a logical solution to workers that allows some to become legal in the country
Newt: yes, thats exactly what i said, oh, wait, boo i guess?

Newt: war is pretty chill, we need to show our enemies we arent to be underestimated
Obama: dude, i got that **** covered and SEAL team six and drone assassination is just the stuff i can admit on camera
Newt: wait, are you sure you are a democrat?
Obama:
12-04-2011 , 12:44 AM
50-200k/mo is ridiculous phil. At 50k UER goes up. at 200K it plummets
12-04-2011 , 12:53 AM
I was just spitballing a random range. The point is a constant stream of good news to point to is more than enough to lock victory, esp against someone like Newt.
12-04-2011 , 12:55 AM
lol thanks for that insight.
12-04-2011 , 01:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
I was just spitballing a random range. The point is a constant stream of good news to point to is more than enough to lock victory, esp against someone like Newt.
Yeah your internal mock debate was random spitballing of nonsense too.
12-04-2011 , 01:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the steam
That's like saying if someone doesn't buy fire insurance there's a longshot chance their house could burn down and they could end up getting some type of govt assistance so they are costing taxpayers money by not purchasing fire insurance.
Except it's really not like that at all. If you don't purchase fire insurance there is a very good chance you will just lose your house and move on with no help from anyone. If you get really sick or in a serious accident with no health insurance, there is a 100% chance you are still going to get adequate care on everyone else's dime (unless you're independently wealthy).
12-04-2011 , 01:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
Yeah your internal mock debate was random spitballing of nonsense too.
You could say that. You could also suggest what weakness Obama has that Newt could exploit.
12-04-2011 , 01:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
You could say that. You could also suggest what weakness Obama has that Newt could exploit.
How bout historically low approval numbers? Nobody with these numbers has ever been reelected. It is all about the economy and if it improves Obama wins if it doesn't he loses.
As to your specifics that you through out Obamacare is supported by less than 50 percent of the electorate and if Gingrich says he will get rid of it Obama's potential response of "i learned it from you Newt" is irrelevant. Your point on oil permits misses the point. The r's advocate opening new oil fields for drilling at the administration has not done that. Agree that Newt and Obama have similar positions on immigration and Obama has been running the republican play book on foreign policy.
As to the specifics you didn't mention the dramatic run of the debt and Obama's failure to articulate a plan to fix is telling. The guy can't even pass a full year budget.
12-04-2011 , 01:15 AM
Pretty LC, but DVaut comes out of retirement again to lol @ Sparty:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...84&postcount=5
12-04-2011 , 01:28 AM
Obama can parry those attacks pretty easily. If anything his approval numbers give a distorted view because the GOP candidates can attack him relentlessly without any comeback at the moment.
12-04-2011 , 01:31 AM
I've watched enough of these debates to conclude that Obama is going to have a pretty easy time handling any of these clowns.
12-04-2011 , 01:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofball
I've watched enough of these debates to conclude that Obama is going to have a pretty easy time handling any of these clowns.
Well goofball your not exactly impartial. I would hazard a equally partial guess that debate experts would give Gingrich an edge. He thinks on his feet more quickly imo and Obama isn't much of an off the cuff speaker.
12-04-2011 , 01:37 AM
well, I meant in the general election in it's entirety. Gingrich is probably the most formidable debater of the field but his poisonous character and personal history will irreparably harm him outside the demographic of Republican Primary Voters
12-04-2011 , 01:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungle survivor
Obama can parry those attacks pretty easily. If anything his approval numbers give a distorted view because the GOP candidates can attack him relentlessly without any comeback at the moment.
What, you think the POTUS doesn't have a platform to speak? Please. He has the biggest microphone in the world he just doesn't have anything to say.
12-04-2011 , 01:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofball
well, I meant in the general election in it's entirety. Gingrich is probably the most formidable debater of the field but his poisonous character and personal history will irreparably harm him outside the demographic of Republican Primary Voters
That very well may be true. Obama is going to bash the living **** out of whoever he is running against and offer very little policy initiatives.
12-04-2011 , 01:46 AM
Why do you people insist on talking about general election matchups at this point?

A month ago, some of you were talking about Cain vs. Obama and how the debates would go, who would win, how black people would vote, would the KKK run a 3rd party candidate, etc.

Do we really need to do the whole thing over again with Gingrich? Perhaps we should hold off until a primary is held.
12-04-2011 , 01:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
What, you think the POTUS doesn't have a platform to speak? Please. He has the biggest microphone in the world he just doesn't have anything to say.
I did not say the POTUS lacks a speaking platform. Rather, Obama defending himself from GOP attacks is not nearly as visible now as it will be when it becomes a one-on-one campaign in the general election. The media balance right now is weighted towards Republican criticism of Obama.
12-04-2011 , 01:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion5
Why do you people insist on talking about general election matchups at this point?

A month ago, some of you were talking about Cain vs. Obama and how the debates would go, who would win, how black people would vote, would the KKK run a 3rd party candidate, etc.

Do we really need to do the whole thing over again with Gingrich? Perhaps we should hold off until a primary is held.
Well **** we wouldn't have anything to talk about.
12-04-2011 , 01:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion5
Why do you people insist on talking about general election matchups at this point?

A month ago, some of you were talking about Cain vs. Obama and how the debates would go, who would win, how black people would vote, would the KKK run a 3rd party candidate, etc.

Do we really need to do the whole thing over again with Gingrich? Perhaps we should hold off until a primary is held.
It's entirely relevant to the primary process to imagine what happens if these people win the primary. That's the whole point, really. Electability is an important factor.
12-04-2011 , 02:07 AM
Newt being a "great debater" assumes presidential "debates" are actually "debates". They arent. Its a stream of short soundbites prepracticed and preprepared on specific subjects that will come up. Its a question of likeability whilst delivering these soundbites which is key, something Obama is entirely world class at, and something Newt is completely 100% terrible at.
12-04-2011 , 02:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Except it's really not like that at all. If you don't purchase fire insurance there is a very good chance you will just lose your house and move on with no help from anyone. If you get really sick or in a serious accident with no health insurance, there is a 100% chance you are still going to get adequate care on everyone else's dime (unless you're independently wealthy).
In my state if you make over 32k a year you are not eligble for any help from govt with your medical bills (unless you are a govt employee). If I had developed a serious illness it would have been on my dime not everybody elses. Now I do have catastrophic insurance only.

      
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