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Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee? Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?

08-16-2011 , 10:48 PM
Yeah. No more magic money = automatic depression. Not a lot of political capital associated with the 'we're gonna be really ****ed for a while, but it's much better than total armageddon' position.
08-16-2011 , 11:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Not especially, the median wage is far more important. The % of min wage employed is included in the median wage.
What? That doesn't even make sense. It's hard to capture a distribution with a single statistic--conceded--but of all the reasons to claim that the median is the best choice here, claiming that it incorporates outliers well is fantastically wrong. It's usually selected for precisely the opposite reason.

Anyway, you can all now return to discussing politics.
08-16-2011 , 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman
I hate Perry, but you guys don't get to simultaneously argue 'lol Perry, Texas has the weakest executive office ever!' and 'lol thinking Texas is awesome, it actually sucks and its obviously because of their Governor!'
Anyone who says texas' economy sucks is just wrong, and they likely know it. There's a good reason why 750k people have moved there.

Re: Perry being awesome

It's all comparatively speaking. He's a very clear top tier candidate.
08-16-2011 , 11:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sholar
What? That doesn't even make sense. It's hard to capture a distribution with a single statistic--conceded--but of all the reasons to claim that the median is the best choice here, claiming that it incorporates outliers well is fantastically wrong. It's usually selected for precisely the opposite reason.

Anyway, you can all now return to discussing politics.
You're completely misreading the point. I was accused of cherrypicking data by using the median, which couldn't really be further from the truth.
08-16-2011 , 11:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
You're completely misreading the point. I was accused of cherrypicking data by using the median, which couldn't really be further from the truth.
I should have been more explicit but my last line in that comment was supposed to indicate that I wasn't responding to the surrounding political conversation, just the remark on using the median statistic as a measure of central tendency. It ignores the "information" in the tails of the distribution (like what percentage of the distribution takes the minimum value, for example).

Just being a nit, perhaps, but that comment struck me as I was skimming.
08-16-2011 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedManPlus
Perry is not some Fat Wonk like Gingrich...
It's gonna be Balls to the Wall...
He called out Bernanke as "treasonous"...
Which is arguably true...
And today Perry = "I stand by what I said"...
So the USD Printing Press is gonna slow down.

This is hardball, no gay apologies...
Perry will use Bernanke as his stalking horse to POTUS.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...80%9D-dc-style

seriously bro your avatar is scary
08-16-2011 , 11:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedManPlus
Perry is not some Fat Wonk like Gingrich...
It's gonna be Balls to the Wall...
He called out Bernanke as "treasonous"...
Which is arguably true...
And today Perry = "I stand by what I said"...
So the USD Printing Press is gonna slow down.

This is hardball, no gay apologies...
Perry will use Bernanke as his stalking horse to POTUS.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...80%9D-dc-style
Finally. For the last few months I've been worried that the candidates from which to choose have been much too liberal with their "gay apologies."

08-17-2011 , 12:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
I know man, right, cos he is just a 22 minute show 4 times a week with an audience more informed that any of the real news media he uses it as an excuse to not do hard hitting journalism showing the facts from both sides and exposing the truth.

I expect more from the comedy shows. Yeah, you won some Emmys Jon, but where are the undercover pieces where you send Sam Bee to Somalia to investigate the pirates there and why has Assif Mandvee not infiltrated Al Qaeda yet? And that Jon Oliver guy, why wasnt he out rioting last week winning the trust of the postcode gangs of London?

Just disgusting and its the youth of today they are letting down. And themselves.
Well done.
08-17-2011 , 12:32 AM
Odds for Republican Nominee (courtesy of Bodog sportsbook)

Rick Perry 7/5

Mitt Romney 2/1

Michele Bachmann 7/1

Jon Hunstman 10/1

Sarah Palin 10/1

Ron Paul 20/1

Rudy Giuliani 30/1

Herman Cain 40/1

Newt Gingrich 40/1

Gary Johnson 50/1

Rick Santorum 50/1
08-17-2011 , 12:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Anyone who says texas' economy sucks is just wrong, and they likely know it. There's a good reason why 750k people have moved there.
I know nothing about Texas' economy but this is obvious correlation != causation
08-17-2011 , 01:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
The only guy that really scares me as a democrat is Christie. I think he actually has enough charisma to overcome the incumbent/economy-not-totally-in-the-****ter disadvantage. The other candidates' only chance is major downturn in the economy. Even if the economy tanks some more between now and the election, as long as people feel like it's not collapsing, or has collapsed, Obama probably wins.
Rumors are circulating that Christie is re-considering a run. He has many high level people from different segments of the repub establishment pushing hard for him to get in. He is also being courted heavily by influential people not normally associated with the repub party which says a lot for his potential as a candidate. Money and organization will not be a problem for him so he has some time. I believe there is a better than average chance he enters the race.

If he enters the race he will be the repub nominee.

Last edited by henway; 08-17-2011 at 01:06 AM.
08-17-2011 , 01:15 AM
Christie debating Bachmann and Perry? Yes please.
08-17-2011 , 01:21 AM
Christiecorndog.jpeg one time!!!!!
08-17-2011 , 01:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerbobo
Christiecorndog.jpeg one time!!!!!
Dude probably takes three at a time.
08-17-2011 , 01:25 AM
Let's say Christie does enter, would it make the list of candidates > 2008?
08-17-2011 , 01:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
Dude probably takes three at a time.
nom nom nom
08-17-2011 , 02:43 AM
Rick Perry would roast that Kevin James looking mother****er in a debate and serve him rotisserie style.
08-17-2011 , 04:26 AM
I don't know about Christie. I live in New Jersey, and he's done an amazing job of doing the exact opposite of what he said to get elected and pissing a lot of people off. That could come back to bite him.
08-17-2011 , 04:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CzarOfNJ
I was told in the other thread I'm a moron for saying the federal government subsidizes Texas though...
What did/do you think "subsidizes" means?

Ninja edit: Nice ninja edit.
08-17-2011 , 04:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spladle
What did/do you think "subsidizes" means?

Ninja edit: Nice ninja edit.
I thought twice and decided to not go down that rabbit hole again.
08-17-2011 , 04:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CzarOfNJ
I thought twice and decided to not go down that rabbit hole again.
What rabbit hole? It seems a fairly straightforward subject resolvable by simply answering the question I posed. If subsidizes = "gives money to" then the federal government subsidizes Texas. If subsidizes = "gives more money to than it takes from" then it does not. The end.
08-17-2011 , 04:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spladle
What rabbit hole? It seems a fairly straightforward subject resolvable by simply answering the question I posed. If subsidizes = "gives money to" then the federal government subsidizes Texas. If subsidizes = "gives more money to than it takes from" then it does not. The end.
Ah. For me it's the former. Reason I use a word like subsidize is because Texas needs that money to run itself. Without it they'd be a lot worse off.
08-17-2011 , 04:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CzarOfNJ
Ah. For me it's the former. Reason I use a word like subsidize is because Texas needs that money to run itself. Without it they'd be a lot worse off.
This seems to be a fairly obvious observation. Why would anyone call you a moron for making it?
08-17-2011 , 05:17 AM
So is Romney actually done like some people have claimed or is this all just "a new serious challenger appears" excitement that will go away?
08-17-2011 , 05:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HorridSludgyBits
Utz, you say that TDS is nothing but a comedy show, then criticize it for being a comedy show. I think most people would agree that it's a comedy show, more specifically a comedy show parody of a newscast.

Most people will like TDS if they are left-leaning and agree with JS's slant on things. For example, even though I disagree with Limbaugh and don't like him, I have to admit he is very effective and skilled at what he does (i.e. simplifies life/politics down to a few attractive platitudes and reduces cognitive dissonance imo).
I think Stewart is hilarious. I just believe that he is able to use his show as a tool to convince many that conservatives are the enemy and do not have their best interests in mind, when the fact is, that neither side does.

The programs that the two sides promote make money for their particular special interests.

However, Stewart has just as sharp of forked tongue as your politicians. When Rep. Gifford was shot, he was all on the warpath about how repubs use rhetoric that is uncalled for. He pointed out Palin's map with the targets on it. I don't like Palin one bit, but found nothing wrong with the map. Those targets represented the politicians they thought they had the best chance of removing from office & therefore, they needed to concentrate their interests on them. Makes perfect sense to me.

But to really show how two faced he is, he used the analogy of the Teabaggers, whom I don't support, as hostage takers in a bank, who after getting all of their demands, say "Oh, yea....we get to shoot the hostages, too, right?"

Another example is when he showed a montage of guests on FOX that were touting their books attacking liberals......well, if you do the same search on CNN & CNBC, you're going to find just as many authors attacking conservatives.

What he does is serve up to his viewing audience what they want & expect to hear, in order to drive up his ratings & make him money.

I even believe this war between him and FOX goes on due to a concerted effort between the two, as they both benefit from it.

So, what I'm saying is, many of his followers believe he is telling the truth, just like Reverend Jones who convinced his followers to drink the cool-aid.

      
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