Don't you understand that "What did I say that was not true?" is the same thing as "hey, does CPI include food and fuel?" Copernicus just said I was wrong, I didn't know what I was wrong about or if in fact I was wrong, because he didn't specify or elaborate.

I "knew" that the CPI didn't include food and energy costs; I was wrong. You're reacting as if it's inconceivable I didn't understand the difference between core CPI and regular CPI, which is a technical distinction.

As far as the news bit, I'm pretty sure I've heard news about the inflation rate, with the caveat that it excludes food and fuel.

Instead of making fun of me and calling me an idiot, why not just point out my mistake? You don't need to be so adversarial.

Since "recession" has a very specific meaning with regards to what's going on in the economy, only someone very ignorant would conclude there is a recession based on such information.

Any adversarial tone in my replies is because the claim that CPI doesnt include fuel and food is made many times in this forum, and it usually isnt a "mistake", its intentionally done to mislead. Apologies, since apparently this was an honest mistake, though Barron's point that you might have done minimal research once the mistake was called out still stands.

I suppose you have evidence of this villainous behavior? No, I didn't think so.

Well, again, I'm pretty sure I've heard the core CPI reported on the news, because they included the caveat that the figure excluded food and fuel. But I guess that I'm not sure what convention most news organizations use; most likely it varies. Some probably use one, others the other, and some might report both. In any case, since the core CPI number is used in determining Fed policies, it is clearly of at least some significance. I'm not sure how significant it is, though, because it would seem that it would be unlikely that there would be a lasting gap between core CPI and CPI.

core CPI is rarely reported because it has such limited applicability and people dont understand what it is.

I think its a lousy stat anyway. Far better would be core CPI + a 6 month average of fuel and food increases (or some other period long enough to dampen volatility but not obscure real trends).

How are the weightings in the CPI determined?
Looks like the big groups are
Housing 42%... up 2.8%
Transportation 17% ... up 9%
Food 15%... up 4.5%

"Data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted in 2001 and 2002, involving a national sample of more than 30,000 information families, provided detailed information on respondents' spending habits. This enabled BLS to construct the CPI market basket of goods and services and to assign each item in the market basket a weight, or importance, based on total family expenditures."

BLS website

we live in one of the most luxurious set of circumstances in the history of human life

recession? haha
big whup

Yeah why would we want to keep progressing to a more luxurious state as quickly as possible?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/04/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

Don't worry though, Ike and Cop will be here soon to tell us there were 81K small business jobs created in the month.

Nah, it's all good, we didn't want those jobs anyway...

no, because the UE increased, but continue being a jerk!

I just wanted to highlight this from the article to enforce what I said earlier in this thread about needing adjustments for hours worked to really understand UE numbers.

Well, if you read the article, there is mention that UE would have increased in both January and February if the statistics were accurate.

Anyway, does this change your opinion on the direction the economy is heading?

no, because i think we are in a short term drop.

Avatar prop bet?

sure...

if the gdp drops for 4 consecutive quarters, you win.

why four?

isn;t a recession 2 quarters?

when is the last time 4 quarters of dropping GDP has happened?

No 2 quarters of negative growth is just a temporary dip.

-a recession is 2 quarters, but believe it or not, they are fairly common and are only a short term drop.

-don't know, but its been awhile

what you say, toafk?

Ok, fine. So what leads you to believe that is just a short term drop and not the beginning of a longer issue?

What things are we doing to correct the direction of job losses, devaluation of the dollar, etc etc?

LOL, nice double think. A recession is two quarters, but actually it isnt its something totally arbitrary that I have decided.

Prop bet is on two quarters of negative growth. Not some arbitrary measure that you alone have decided.

Real GDP per working-age person in the United States, 1900–2005


The US economy has been very robust to government economic policy.

The Great Depression, although not impossible to repeat, is far more unlikely given modern government involvement and the world market without some major catalyst to change the status quo.

Given the chart above, betting on the bottom falling out is a sucker's bet.

Forbes: FOCUS Economists say March payroll declines eliminate doubt of a recession