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Originally Posted by OmgGlutten!
i haven't looked any real polls yet but my gut reaction is that the immigration issues in the news now are going to be good for Trump.
OMG:
Since Trump has advised Republicans to "... quit wasting their time on immigration until we elect more Republicans [in November]," I suppose we'll find out. I suspect Trump has seriously miscalculated, but I also thought he would never be elected President, so what do I know?
Last night on MSNBC, Kris Kornacke took a look at the latest polling data for ten key Senate races. (These are the races where the Democratic incumbent is believed to be facing the toughest challenge from a Republican opponent.) In order for the GOP to achieve Trump's wet dream - a filibuster-proof (60 seat) majority - they need a net gain of nine Republican seats. (With the election of Democrat Doug Jones last December, the Senate now has 51 Republican senators - a razor thin majority.)
Kornacke started off with two Dem senators, (i.e. Missouri's Claire McKaskill and North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp), who may be in trouble. I can't remember McKaskill's number, but I think she was ahead (or behind) her opponent by less than 5 percent - well within the margin of error. The same was true of Heitkamp, although I believe she was trailing her opponent. Either way, it looks like two Democratic incumbents are in tough races.
West Virginia is interesting. Incumbent senator Joe Manchin, who the GOP is really hoping to knock off, may wind up in a three-way race as Don Blankenship - the former coal baron who was defeated in the Republican primary - is threatening to run as a third party candidate. Even without Blankenship in the race, Machin is running 5-7 percent ahead of his Republican opponent. (It will be interesting to see what happens when Trump starts showing up in "coal country" encouraging people to vote against Manchin.)
Florida is not a tight race. Republican Governor Rick Scott is taking on Bill Nelson. Nelson is presently polling at 50 percent to Scott's 40 percent. I can't remember all the rest of the races, but, IIRC, the Democratic incumbents were all ahead by double digits. So, at best, the GOP might pick up a maximum of 3-5 senate seats. That's not a filibuster proof majority. So Trump's dream of electing "a lot of Republicans" in the Senate, appears to be a pipe dream.
As for the House of Representatives, good luck there. Long time Republican consultant Mike Murphy believes "70 to 100" seats may be in play thanks to Trump's zero tolerance policy on immigration. If the Democrats pick up only half of that range, Trump will have to contend with Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Trump appears to believe that playing the immigration issue hard is the key to a winning political strategy. If he turns out to be wrong, his wings will be clipped. If the GOP picks up only one or two Senate seats - and loses the House by a margin of 50+ seats - Republicans will turn on Trump. If the loss is bad enough, Trump will no longer be feared - he'll be loathed.
All of this is speculation on my part - more hope than certainty. Hopefully, the Dems will get their messaging right this time around the track. With the "gift" Trump has given them of separating children from their parents, you can already visualize the election TV ads. It's going to get nasty ...
Last edited by Former DJ; 06-23-2018 at 07:53 AM.