Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
UK Politics Thread UK Politics Thread

03-07-2019 , 06:54 AM
As an empiricist, proving a link (or the lack of a link) between (knife) crime and police numbers is incredibly hard. To write a paper that, say, provided an answer good enough to get in a decent peer reviewed journal ... don't know where I'd start.

Instinct says "it's all about police numbers" is highly reductive and it's a combination of factors. I suspect it's probably a "fad", these stabbings are in the news so they're seen as cool - combined with increased poverty and so on, police numbers are only a small to zero factor. (That's just my instinct and I wouldn't be surprised if I was way wrong.)
03-07-2019 , 06:59 AM
Obviously there are social factors at play too, alluded to earlier with references to gang culture and grooming of children (often those excluded from schools), but these new influences demand a greater police presence (and a better, more responsible and accountable police force).
03-07-2019 , 07:05 AM
On the subject of which...


Black advisers claim they were 'targeted' by Met Police

Quote:
Ken Hinds, the chair of the Haringey Independent Stop and Search Advisory Committee, has worked for decades to promote community cohesion.

In April, he was arrested after intervening in the search of a young black man near his home in north London.

He told the BBC: "This officer pushed me out of the way. I asked him not to put his hands on me.

"The next thing I know I'm under arrest for obstruction and assault, accused of head-butting."
Tallies 100% with my own experiences of living in in Haringey, where on one occasion a friend and I witnessed two young sightly pissed people removed from a pub by police officers (plus two police vans), sat upon on the pavement and put into a neck hold so strong that the boy was screaming they were breaking his neck.

All for being a little loud and friendly in a public house one afternoon (after the landlady decided she didn't want them there and called the police).
03-07-2019 , 07:19 AM


(not holding my breath)
03-07-2019 , 07:30 AM
It's not exactly institutional if it's a very recent phenomenon in the Labour party and is only exhibited by a relatively small number of (very vocal) members. If you get rid of the loony fringes of Momentum you've pretty much cut the cancer out.

cf McPherson report into institutionalised racism in the Metropolitan Police, where racism was found to be alive and kicking in all strata of the force, and was embedded as a value throughout.
03-07-2019 , 07:32 AM
So the EHRC are opening an investigation into a loony fringe. Gotcha.
03-07-2019 , 07:38 AM
"The Equalities and Human Rights Commission said it was considering launching a formal investigation into anti-Semitism in the party." (BBC)

I can't find any reference to the EHRC investigating institutional racism in the Labour party, the party that organised opposition to Mosley's march through the Jewish East End and has consistently stood up for the rights of ethnic minorities and supported the anti-racist movements (against the NF) of the 70s. Where was your preferred political party then? Hiding its institutional racism, I guess.

As far as I can see the "institutional" accusation emanates from none other than Chuka Umunna. I wonder why he may have wanted to popularise that idea?
03-07-2019 , 07:53 AM
The BBC or some random unaccountable Buzzfeed "journalist". Hmmm, it's a tricky one.
03-07-2019 , 10:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK
As an empiricist, proving a link (or the lack of a link) between (knife) crime and police numbers is incredibly hard. To write a paper that, say, provided an answer good enough to get in a decent peer reviewed journal ... don't know where I'd start.

Instinct says "it's all about police numbers" is highly reductive and it's a combination of factors. I suspect it's probably a "fad", these stabbings are in the news so they're seen as cool - combined with increased poverty and so on, police numbers are only a small to zero factor. (That's just my instinct and I wouldn't be surprised if I was way wrong.)
This sums up my thoughts well. It would certainly be easier to find an association between stop and search and knife crime, as by definition stop and search is an intervention.

However, even if a direct association were found, that doesn't mean it's the most important factor, or that it isn't mediated by other factors.
03-07-2019 , 02:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK


(not holding my breath)


NEC member...
03-07-2019 , 02:50 PM
Rudd lets slip the "coloured" word when describing Dianne Abbott, a word not in common use since the death of the apartheid regime that spawned it.

I doubt it'll do her leadership chances any harm at all when it comes to attracting support from the right wing of her party.
03-07-2019 , 02:59 PM
Meanwhile her colleague Karen Bradley, NI Secretary (who infamously admitted she didn't realise that people in NI tend to vote along sectarian lines) has made another awful blunder, saying that deaths caused by police and military were not crimes.
03-07-2019 , 02:59 PM
The authoritarian impulses of the current Labour leadership is terrifying. Don't like MPs? Force them to have a by-election. Don't like what someone is doing with their house? The government can confiscate their house! Don't like a business? Nationalise it! Don't like an anti-racism NDPB? Abolish that too! Like a foreign government that's domestically extremely unpopular? n.p if they abolish elections. Viva Fidel! Viva Maduro!

It's a much bigger concern than their anti-Semitism. There's a real chance these Stalinists could form the next government. I think they'd only do so with a small majority, and with enough non-tankie Labour MPs to prevent full blown Stalinism but the cabinet and no. 10 would be stocked with hardcore authoritarians and we'd need some luck to avoid a significant democratic backslide.
03-07-2019 , 03:00 PM
Andrea Leadsom's suggesting Islamophobia is a matter for the foreign office is significantly worse than Rudd's faux pas. Othering is inexcusable.
03-07-2019 , 03:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
A statistician will be looking at a link between police numbers and the likelihood of an outbreak of knife crimes.

That's because knife crime is like an infection with knife carriers making it more likely others will carry knives. It's much harder to treat the infection that prevent the infection becoming serious so it's quite likely a simplistic look at any data would show more police is correlated with more knife crime.

That's assuming there is enough data to show anything this specific which is quite unlikely. Treat knife crime as one of many possible crime related infections and it might become more obvious. The best question to examine is probably that of how infectious carrying knives is.

[I'm ignoring all the other factors which are also obviously important]
I agree that knife crime is an infection.

The biggest factors in knife crime are boredom and a sence off inadequacy, with longer working hours off parents being a factor and poorer wages. Hence the reasons for our crime getting reduced in our city, by building new homes, providing better employment and helping to run community organisations. Before you think about reducing the police, unfortunately with austerity happening most city's have not be given responsibility or resources to do so.

Obv there is other factors too, but a small investment into community spirit helps loads.
03-07-2019 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Rudd lets slip the "coloured" word when describing Dianne Abbott, a word not in common use since the death of the apartheid regime that spawned it.

I doubt it'll do her leadership chances any harm at all when it comes to attracting support from the right wing of her party.
I just listened to the clip and it's a big fat 'meh' from me:

1) she used the word to describe the awful abuse Abbott gets.
2) saying 'person of colour' or 'woman of colour' is not only acceptable, but is probably the most politically correct phrase for it at the moment. I really feel you have to cut people from a different generation a degree of slack here.
03-07-2019 , 05:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smacc25
Lmao... Stop and search was useless up here, what did help was actual old style policing with specific community officers helping to sett up clubs, interaction with the young kids and annonamous help lines.

Stop and search caused the kids to avoid the police like the plague, causing them to hide tools everywhere around the scheme and a whole load of resentments.

https://www.theguardian.com/membersh...g-young-people
It was used as part of the strategy to reduce knife crime, along with the 'social health' aspect, and there were far more stop and searches in Scotland than there were in England.
03-07-2019 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337
I just listened to the clip and it's a big fat 'meh' from me:

1) she used the word to describe the awful abuse Abbott gets.
2) saying 'person of colour' or 'woman of colour' is not only acceptable, but is probably the most politically correct phrase for it at the moment. I really feel you have to cut people from a different generation a degree of slack here.
agree with this. Rudd's slip is no big deal imo. The line for me would be using "coloureds" as a collective noun a la Gareth from the Office.
03-07-2019 , 06:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337
I just listened to the clip and it's a big fat 'meh' from me:

1) she used the word to describe the awful abuse Abbott gets.
2) saying 'person of colour' or 'woman of colour' is not only acceptable, but is probably the most politically correct phrase for it at the moment. I really feel you have to cut people from a different generation a degree of slack here.
Person of colour is the phrase chosen by the non white community; coloured is a phrase chosen by white supremacists in apartheid South Africa. They may sound similar but they have very different contextual meanings for the people they're applied to.

It's similar to how homosexuals were referred to by heterosexuals as bent or queer before they chose the word gay for themselves.

I can understand some members of the public not getting the coloured/of colour thing, but for senior politicians not to get it, if that's the case, shows an alarming lack of knowledge and I'm surprised that Rudd, one of the less obnoxious of the leading Tories, isn't familiar with important and sensitive terms.

But then with these Tories I really shouldnt be so easily surprised when the NI secretary repeatedly shows an arrogant disregard for such minor trifles as knowledge and facts.

Last edited by jalfrezi; 03-07-2019 at 06:50 PM.
03-07-2019 , 07:38 PM
Yes I understand the difference myself, but my point is, when it's so cosmetic, there's probably a limit to how angry you're entitled to get about it.
03-07-2019 , 08:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Husker
It was used as part of the strategy to reduce knife crime, along with the 'social health' aspect, and there were far more stop and searches in Scotland than there were in England.
It may have been but my point still stands, it was mostly used for minor drug offences.
Having seen 1st hand that most if not all them who got caught, were out in less then 24 hours and back at it because that's there life.
It made almost no difference in reduction of violence or violent crime and actually caused more suffering because gangs adapt.

This is only my personal experience though by being able to speak to both sides and their experiences.

A hands on approach is usually best, but as I believe as it is in London there is not a lot of trust between communities and the police so a lot of work is needed especially as the violence is getting to be as bad as it was here.

Stop & Talk worked a lot better.
03-08-2019 , 03:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337
Yes I understand the difference myself, but my point is, when it's so cosmetic, there's probably a limit to how angry you're entitled to get about it.
I haven't seen anyone get angry about it. For me it's only significant because Rudd didn't realise she'd slipped up, which says a lot about this generation of politicians, hence the tie-in with the clueless Bradley.

Also, as I'm in the same age bracket as Rudd I don't think her age entitles her to a free pass for her ignorance.
03-08-2019 , 04:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smacc25
It may have been but my point still stands, it was mostly used for minor drug offences.
Having seen 1st hand that most if not all them who got caught, were out in less then 24 hours and back at it because that's there life.
It made almost no difference in reduction of violence or violent crime and actually caused more suffering because gangs adapt.

This is only my personal experience though by being able to speak to both sides and their experiences.

A hands on approach is usually best, but as I believe as it is in London there is not a lot of trust between communities and the police so a lot of work is needed especially as the violence is getting to be as bad as it was here.

Stop & Talk worked a lot better.
Most of the time they may have ended up confiscating drink or drugs but it was mainly about deterring knife crime. When the policy around the VRU came into being stop and search increased over the next few years in Strathclyde by over 300% and I wouldn't be surprised if the increase in Glasgow alone was even higher. At the time stop and search was being used 4 times as much in Scotland as it was in England and the difference was even more stark if you looked at certain areas, i.e. Strathclyde was 10 times higher than Greater Manchester. While the idea around the VRU was about getting young people involved with the gangs etc to move away from that life it was also backed up by a crackdown by the police.
03-08-2019 , 07:29 AM
03-08-2019 , 09:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Husker
Most of the time they may have ended up confiscating drink or drugs but it was mainly about deterring knife crime. When the policy around the VRU came into being stop and search increased over the next few years in Strathclyde by over 300% and I wouldn't be surprised if the increase in Glasgow alone was even higher. At the time stop and search was being used 4 times as much in Scotland as it was in England and the difference was even more stark if you looked at certain areas, i.e. Strathclyde was 10 times higher than Greater Manchester. While the idea around the VRU was about getting young people involved with the gangs etc to move away from that life it was also backed up by a crackdown by the police.
Yes you are correct, the police was stopping every teenager most chance the got, in the poorer areas of Strathclyde police (that includes Glasgow).

      
m