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06-03-2017 , 09:00 AM
If the Tories formed a government but May got ousted who would replace her? Boris? Who else?
06-03-2017 , 09:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK
Corbyn is not going to win. A hung parliament where no party gets a majority of seats might.

Brexit will probably happen but it's not certain. At the moment it seems like ~52% of Britain still favours Brexit. The 48% are split roughly equally between those who want to stop Brexit & those who accept it. What happens if the numbers go from 52-48 to 45-55? How about 40-60? There's plenty of reason to think that could happen. Firstly, those aren't unprecedented swings - look at the movement to Labour in the past two weeks! Secondly, demographics. And if the British economy starts to significantly underperform the rest of the EU? That's the most important thing. Plus it seems likely that Brexit negotiations will be more complicated than most people think.

Imagine a stagnant British economy, a thriving EU economy & the threat of Scotland/N. Ireland leaving the union. Polls show a majority of Brits now want to stay in the EU. In such a scenario we could see the 29 March 2019 Brexit date getting "delayed" by a year "due to the complexity of the negotiations". And then someone floats some "dramatic" new EU constitution or EU-Britain deal which really isn't that different but allows Britain to save face. The Prime Minister says "Well that changes everything. I said Brexit means Brexit but I never anticipated such an amazing new deal." Now there's a new referendum between Brexit (along terms of the deal that has been negotiated over the previous three years) or staying in (based on the amazing new offer).
Given the vast majority of the establishment are opposed to brexit this is a real possibility. Ironically those who place brexit above all else would be better voting for JC as he has an ideological opposition to the EU as opposed to the puppet TM.
06-03-2017 , 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
From that document, and if what I'm looking at is correct, around 250k people need nursing or residential care, compared to 350k who need home care.

However, as those are cross sectional figures, it doesn't take into consideration the number of people who start off needing home care, and then regress to needing residential/nursing care (I would guess the vast majority).

Either way, your figures are wrong.

Going by those figures, 100k people will lose out by having to pay for care at home. Meanwhile, 250k people will benefit by being able to leave £100k instead of £23.5k.
By those numbers 350k (HSCIC estimate of those receiving long term government funded care at home) will definitely be worse off but 250k possibly better off and don't forget we already had the proposed cap of £72k that this government was supposed to implement last year but instead delayed til 2020 and until the U turn appeared to have scrapped.
The £100k with no cap on all care would have been a far far bigger earner.
The Health and Social Care information Centre estimate the number of pensioners receiving essential care allowing them to live independently at 850,000 - often in the form of family members acting as carers - nothing has been mentioned about carers allowance being included in the cost.
Likewise short term care after release from hospital.

Ill thought out,callous and arrogant.
But that's the tories for you.
06-03-2017 , 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
is Brexit 100% going to happen? if Corbyn were to win, would that change the equation?
It's not 100% whoever wins.

I'd love to see Labour do well enough to form at least a minority government but I'm also fervently anti-brexit and suspect the best hope would be a Labour led coalition with pro-remain coalition partners.
06-03-2017 , 09:30 AM
Leaving the EU is quite close to 100%

There are a degree of options scaling from a hard brexit to "remaining in all but name" that are all possible that the exact outcome of the election could determine.
06-03-2017 , 10:19 AM
06-03-2017 , 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK
If the Tories formed a government but May got ousted who would replace her? Boris? Who else?
Tory leadership elections are always highly unpredictable but you can expect the same motley crew of Bonkers Boris and some of Rudd/Davis/Gove/Fox to want to represent the right of the party and probably Hammond and AN Other the centre/left.
06-03-2017 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by epcfast
By those numbers 350k (HSCIC estimate of those receiving long term government funded care at home) will definitely be worse off but 250k possibly better off
Care at home is not free, and never has been. If you have more than £23500 in assets (including the value of your home) you have to pay. Once your assets are depleted to this level, you get it free. So they will not "definitely be worse off".

This is why so many relatives care for family members.

I agree it's ill thought out though. Where are all the additional careers going to come from, when relatives decide that with £100k guaranteed coming their way, they would rather pay someone else to look after a relative.
06-03-2017 , 12:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Care at home is not free, and never has been. If you have more than £23500 in assets (including the value of your home) you have to pay. Once your assets are depleted to this level, you get it free. So they will not "definitely be worse off".

This is why so many relatives care for family members.

I agree it's ill thought out though. Where are all the additional careers going to come from, when relatives decide that with £100k guaranteed coming their way, they would rather pay someone else to look after a relative.

The value of your home is not included in your assets for care at home.
That's why this was such a cash grab

Quote:
Care at Home means test

You can be charged for home care services if you have more than the amounts shown in the table below.

The value of your home is not taken into account when working how much you have to pay.

Each local authority should publish and make available details of its charging policy for home care, how they work out how much to charge you and how much as a minimum income you are allowed to keep for your own use.

How your assets and savings affect how much you pay for care

Region Local authority or trust helps pay for care costs if you have assets and savings of _
England £23,250
Scotland £25,250
Wales_ £30,000
Northern Ireland £23,250
Your local authority or trust will still expect you to contribute some of your income if you’re below these limits.
06-03-2017 , 01:25 PM
You might want to read the whole article next time you quote it.

What it's talking about there is the means test. So, when they are deciding how much you have to pay, they do not count the value of your home.

The last sentence is key:

Quote:
Your local authority or trust will still expect you to contribute some of your income if you’re below these limits.
The bottom line is that if the current system was the £100k floor, and Theresa May has just reduced it to £23500, opposition to her would still be ranting about a "dementia tax". In fact, I think they would be apoplectic - and not because they have even thought about or understand the change, but:

Quote:
Originally Posted by epcfast
Ill thought out,callous and arrogant.
But that's the tories for you.
I'm not sure either system is good, however I think the newer one is a slight improvement on the old one, as it removes the lottery of if you have someone who requires long-term care, watching their entire asset pool deplete to £23500 - the new system, you always get that £100k.
06-03-2017 , 02:03 PM
You're totally (and possibly deliberately) missing the point.

Currently for care in the home you are means tested and then asked to contribute. If you have assets not including your home of over £23,500 you will be asked to pay the full cost until your assets fall below that figure.If your assets are between £14,250 and £23,500 the council will contribute.
Below £14,250 and your assets are not counted. You pay what you can according to the means test.
Say you live in your own home worth £200,000 and have assets of £10,000 and a weekly income of £300 made up of state pension,disability premium and attendance allowance then you will be asked to pay a maximum based on means testing of roughly £50 regardless of the cost of your home care which would be between £15 and £20 an hour. Your home is safe regardless.
Under the proposed dementia tax your assets now include your home and as such you will be charged the full cost of your care until your assets of £10k are gone and your home is saddled with £100k of debt. There was no cap on the total contribution proposed.
Under the old system there was a cap.
06-03-2017 , 02:55 PM


Quote:
She said: “Theresa May has dropped the triple tax lock.

“Why would you take it out only to come back in and say there would be no tax rises? This is very confusing.”

IDS responded: “What we are trying to get away with in the manifesto - get away from, rather - is the idea that you set out every single thing in detail, saying ‘we won’t do this, we won’t do that’.”
06-03-2017 , 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by epcfast
You're totally (and possibly deliberately) missing the point.

Currently for care in the home you are means tested and then asked to contribute. If you have assets not including your home of over £23,500 you will be asked to pay the full cost until your assets fall below that figure.If your assets are between £14,250 and £23,500 the council will contribute.
Below £14,250 and your assets are not counted. You pay what you can according to the means test.
Say you live in your own home worth £200,000 and have assets of £10,000 and a weekly income of £300 made up of state pension,disability premium and attendance allowance then you will be asked to pay a maximum based on means testing of roughly £50 regardless of the cost of your home care which would be between £15 and £20 an hour. Your home is safe regardless.
Under the proposed dementia tax your assets now include your home and as such you will be charged the full cost of your care until your assets of £10k are gone and your home is saddled with £100k of debt. There was no cap on the total contribution proposed.
Under the old system there was a cap.
Quite. My family has recent experience of the system in operation. It's grim, and it costs, a lot, but it's reasonable. Now that the government is proposing to rip into the value of your home -- you're delusional if you think older people are going to vote for that. They aren't. And the Conservatives depend on the votes of older people.
06-03-2017 , 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by epcfast
Plus there's that.
06-03-2017 , 03:56 PM


Spoiler:


Spoiler:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
06-03-2017 , 04:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 57 On Red
Quite. My family has recent experience of the system in operation. It's grim, and it costs, a lot, but it's reasonable.
As has mine - both home care, and residential care.

Home care might cost around £5k a year for 1 hour a day, or £10k a year for 2 hours a day.*

Residential care is averaged at £30k a year for residential care; £40k if you need nursing.

The point I'm making is that if you're unlucky enough to need residential care, it would wipe out your entire assets down to £23500 in less than 5 years in Epcfast's example.

No one is going to argue that under the new system, people needing care at home are going to be better off - they are not. However, people needing residential care most probably are, and as I've pointed out earlier there is always going to be a relationship where people needing home care eventually need residential care - so they lose on home care, and gain on residential care.

Anyway, this is just my view having experienced the system. I'd personally rather know I'm guaranteed £100k, rather than face the care home lottery where I might get more, but I might also just get £23500.

Last edited by Elrazor; 06-03-2017 at 04:07 PM. Reason: * of course, family members can always help with care and avoid paying anything, as my family did.
06-03-2017 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
As has mine - both home care, and residential care.

Home care might cost around £5k a year for 1 hour a day, or £10k a year for 2 hours a day.*

Residential care is averaged at £30k a year for residential care; £40k if you need nursing.

The point I'm making is that if you're unlucky enough to need residential care, it would wipe out your entire assets down to £23500 in less than 5 years in Epcfast's example.

No one is going to argue that under the new system, people needing care at home are going to be better off - they are not. However, people needing residential care most probably are, and as I've pointed out earlier there is always going to be a relationship where people needing home care eventually need residential care - so they lose on home care, and gain on residential care.

Anyway, this is just my view having experienced the system. I'd personally rather know I'm guaranteed £100k, rather than face the care home lottery where I might get more, but I might also just get £23500.
It wouldn't because under the current scheme there is a cap of £72000 total that was supposed to come in last year but the tories delayed til 2020
The reason why they delayed it is to see if they could "get away with" this dementia tax unnoticed.
06-03-2017 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK


Spoiler:


Spoiler:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
First graph correct
gogogo
06-03-2017 , 04:30 PM
Fot the few not the many

06-03-2017 , 04:58 PM
Interesting article
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7770831.html


"Jeremy Corbyn is a right-wing Red Tory who offers no alternative to the Government"
06-03-2017 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by epcfast
It wouldn't because under the current scheme there is a cap of £72000 total that was supposed to come in last year but the tories delayed til 2020
The reason why they delayed it is to see if they could "get away with" this dementia tax unnoticed.
Thats hardly relevant to the current discussion, seeing as its never actually been implemented.

However much i and i expect most people dont agree with uncapped caring fees.
06-03-2017 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK
Corbyn is not going to win. A hung parliament where no party gets a majority of seats might.

Brexit will probably happen but it's not certain. At the moment it seems like ~52% of Britain still favours Brexit. The 48% are split roughly equally between those who want to stop Brexit & those who accept it. What happens if the numbers go from 52-48 to 45-55? How about 40-60? There's plenty of reason to think that could happen. Firstly, those aren't unprecedented swings - look at the movement to Labour in the past two weeks! Secondly, demographics. And if the British economy starts to significantly underperform the rest of the EU? That's the most important thing. Plus it seems likely that Brexit negotiations will be more complicated than most people think.

Imagine a stagnant British economy, a thriving EU economy & the threat of Scotland/N. Ireland leaving the union. Polls show a majority of Brits now want to stay in the EU. In such a scenario we could see the 29 March 2019 Brexit date getting "delayed" by a year "due to the complexity of the negotiations". And then someone floats some "dramatic" new EU constitution or EU-Britain deal which really isn't that different but allows Britain to save face. The Prime Minister says "Well that changes everything. I said Brexit means Brexit but I never anticipated such an amazing new deal." Now there's a new referendum between Brexit (along terms of the deal that has been negotiated over the previous three years) or staying in (based on the amazing new offer).
I mostly agree. The problem i see with that argument is just that the continental European and British (legal and political) culture is to different. At the moment it looks like the EU might be reformed if Macron and Merkel push for it a bit more, but whatever this reform will be, will mean more fiscal and political integration within the EU, which is exactly what the UK does not want.
06-03-2017 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Thats hardly relevant to the current discussion, seeing as its never actually been implemented.

However much i and i expect most people dont agree with uncapped caring fees.
Of course it's relevant,
You're comparing a new (capless until the u-turn)scheme that will come with the existing scheme which already includes a cap to come in by 2020.
You were completely wrong about care at home including your home as an asset under the present scheme and are now just nitpicking.
06-03-2017 , 05:27 PM
06-03-2017 , 05:33 PM
oh ffs

      
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