Quote:
Originally Posted by Cwocwoc
You highlight the danger from having nukes in the region. You think Israel's use of them in the past would have been reasonable.
I certainly never said that. I don't think there's ever been a reasonable time to drop a nuclear bomb, but then I've never had that decision to make, and I'm certain I'd have a hard time arguing against dropping a bomb in Wannsee ca. 1930s.
What I said was that Israel has - on several occasions - been in a hostile enough environment where a reasonable person might have concluded that a state in posession of nuclear weapons might have in fact used them. Israel has rejected every one of those opportunities, suggesting a very high standard of use (at least as high as, say, the US, France, or UK). Add to that the promise it has repeatedly made (and kept) never to introduce sych weapons, and it becomes reasonable to let sleeping dogs lie in terms of ambiguity.
Contrast this with the speech coming from the supposed representatives of the Iranian people (make no mistake, the Iranian people deserve way better than these nuts), with their fingers on the button. Constant threats against the Great Satan and promises to "wipe the regime in Jerusalem from history" (to use the exact translation). For all the economic and academic integration (despite the BDSers efforts and perpetual failure), Israel is enmeshed with the Western world. Iran's ties are to Russia, China, India, and the Arab world; the Iranian government may even understand MAD doctrine (I'd bet on it but its not 100%), but its terrorist proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza clearly do not. That's what the fear is really all about (as has been discussed). Say what you will about AIPAC (and I'll disagree anyway), they're not blowing themselves up on the streets or trying to hijack planes. The people that could get a nuke from Iran are indeed prepared to do these things. We don't need to go and carpet bomb the country and occupy it for 15 years, but Iran can not have a nuclear bomb for distribution.
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One day an Israeli leader might agree with you. I don't blame any neighbouring country for wanting a nuclear deterrent just in case for their own security.
The Arabs know Israel won't use it. Like I said, what they say and think are very different. They know they have nothing to fear from Israel as long as they don't poke the bear. They worry about keeping the real story of Israel out of the public awareness. They've spent decades telling their people that Israel is pure evil, because its better than the people demanding the democratic reforms and freedoms that Israelis, Jew and Arab, have.
Don't get me wrong (and I'm speculating here) they'd still much prefer those troublesome Jews out of there. But the fact is, a strong Israel is better for them because they keep the arab spring types thinking about Palestinians (who actually have above average
life expectancy and
quality of life) instead of their own despotic leaders.
Last edited by Gamblor; 03-15-2012 at 07:55 PM.