this is one of the better places in the internet to handicap this

YES, Obama appoints a justice
-275

No
+275

What do you think?

More instances:

- 1932, Oliver Wendell Holmes steps down in January; Hoover nominates Benjamin N. Cardozo, who is confirmed in March. FDR beats Hoover in the election later that year
- 1888, Morrison Waite dies in March; Cleveland nominates Melville Fuller on April 30, he's confirmed in July. Cleveland wins the popular vote in November but loses to Benjamin Harrison thanks to the electoral college
- 1892, Joseph P. Bradley dies in January; Harrison nominates George Shiras Jr. in July, he's confirmed a week later, and later that year Cleveland takes the WH back from Harrison
- in 1880 a justice died after the election, in which Republicans had the presidency both before and after, so not that interesting
- 1872 same thing, justice died after Grant already won re-election
- 1860, Peter Vivian Daniel dies in May; his replacement was not nominated until 1862??? Civil War didn't start until 1861 (1860 was Lincoln's election), so I'm very confused as to why there was such a long delay here but wikipedia doesn't note why

1852: John McKinley dies in July; Millard Fillmore, our nation's last Whig president, makes three nominations to fill the vacancy, all of which are rejected by the Democratic Senate. Democrat Franklin Pierce wins the November election, and nominates John Archibald Campbell to succeed McKinley in March of 1853. This would be the closest precedent to what Republicans are about to do, I guess.

1844:: Henry Baldwin dies in April; John Tyler (Whig? though Wikipedia says independent) makes two nominations to replace him, Senate rejects both, that fall Democrat James K. Polk wins the presidency, and Polk's third nomination (Robert Cooper Grier) attempt finally goes through in 1846.

There are like 4 more who died in the early 1800s in election years but I've had my fill of looking through this stuff now.

jade helm sleeper cell...

I meant mavericky in the sense that they would vote in favor of an Obama nominee.

Assuming "appoints" means the judge has to get nominated _and_ confirmed, I take "no" at those odds, but I don't know what a good line would be

honestly think no should be a favorite

Both cruz and rubio saying "next President" must nominate someone to take his place

,

I have no idea but feels like there's no way no can be a favorite. Republicans blocking a **** ton of nominees seems like shooting themselves in the foot in an election year.

Obama could find 14 moderate republican senators to get cloture if nominates a centrist.

The senate isn't the house.

Ted Cruz would be awesome, too. He's crazy, but so was Scalia, so you aren't losing anything. But it keeps him out of politics, guarantees trump wins the nom, The dems win the general and then get 2 SC nominations anyway

The thought of Hillary nominee replacing one of the most conservative justices there has ever been will drive republicans bat **** crazy. I don't know what to tell you if you actually think this won't motivate conservatives to turn out in droves. Gun nuts, racists, pro-lifers, states rights libertarians, fiscal conservatives, and big business all have a huge stake in making sure scalia's vote remains conservative.

Someone should check on Clarence Thomas

I'd say it's >90% that Obama nominates someone. I can't think of a single reason why he wouldn't. He's still president for 11 months. It's not like he's packing it in already.

I'd say it's maybe 30% or less that the Senate confirms that person, but I really don't know. Getting to 50 votes to confirm is challenging enough, but getting to 60 votes to overcome a filibuster is just a massive challenge. But I think that this will be Obama's one last ride wherein he will see the fight as a way of putting a bow on his presidency, and he will give the fight absolutely everything that he has to get a center-left type of justice confirmed.

We'll see, though.

Lol

This should induce them to quickly approve any centrist that Obama nominates.

Yes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsucc..._United_States

Cruz or Rubio personally obstructing would be shooting themselves in the foot - I would hope. (although Rubio could be out of the race by the time it matters)

??????

Not a chance. Republicans think they have a good shot at winning. Obama isn't hugely popular, and Hillary isn't exactly loved by anyone, and Bernie is an admitted socialist. They will fight for a centrist next year is dems hold the whitehouse. They aren't going to go for it this year.

grunching.

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOO

I think the Senate confirming Obama's nominee is a favorite.

BO nominating himself would be the most legendary move ever.

Oh man is this a real thing that can happen theoretically?