But at any rate Iowa State poll was included in the RCP average last time so count it IMO. Amused that out of 377 likely caucus goers, precisely one has Huntsman as their second choice, and no one as their first choice.

The timing of Paul's rise is similar to Huckabee's in 2008. Huckabee broke 20% for the first time in a CBS News/NY Times poll conducted 11/2-11/12.

Also, I bet no one had the Paul hitting 20% before Gingrich does in Iowa three days ago.

Updated RCP Iowa Average:

22% Cain
17% Romney
15% Paul
14% Gingrich
7% Perry
7% Bachmann
4% Santorum
1% Huntsman

Colbert Report segment on Pin-Ups for Ron Paul Calendar 11/16/11

Intrade: Odds to win Iowa

Romney 36%
Paul 26%
Gingrich 19%
Cain 12%
Bachmann 6%
Perry 4%

max, you must be getting a little nervous about the RP primary bets you've made considering the buzz around his Iowa chances?

Have you considered the fact that the reason you keep getting temp banned is the same reason you would get crushed in a debate?

Well, I certainly could lose the bet. I didn't make it because I thought it was free money....I thought it was close to even money at the time and it would be a fun sweat (which it has been...though it will be less fun if I lose on the first freaking primary ).

If I had bet significantly more money I certainly would be worried....but probably would have been worried the whole way.

It's pretty much win or lose in Iowa tbh. I didn't see that months ago, but now I believe it to be true. Really low chance that he gets a close 2nd in Iowa and somehow gains enough momentum to win a caucus state like Nevada or Minnesota.

Yeah...I could see something like this being accurate.

Though maybe if Romney ends up having the nomination locked down really early (by winning Iowa) nobody but Paul puts forth any effort in Nevada/Minn as everybody else stops trying and Romney focuses on Obama. So maybe Paul could sneak one out with very low voter turn out. With Iowa, you can't really get a cheap victory due to indifference.

tbh this paragraph is what i made my bet based on...looking like it might get a lot easier though with the Iowa polling.

God Fox News is so ridiculous.

So despite his strong second, they don't even mention his name when discussing the Iowa State poll. Despite the fact he just got second and around 20% in two straight Iowa polls this week, they didn't utter Ron or Paul throughout the entire segment.

<insert Max Raker>

5:1 for the scenario I outlined might be reasonable. But adding in the present chances of an Iowa win or just an Iowa bump from doing well there probably makes it closer to 2 or 3 to 1 overall now.

Well....yeah. What you posted probably won't break into the top 100 most ridiculous things said on Foxnews today.

you can buy out for $400

I'd rather sell more at 2:1

a combination of sarcastic personal attacks and nitty politics mods would get me crushed in a debate? that's an odd supposition.

have you been enjoying RP's surging poll numbers?

SELL MORE MORE LIKE SMELL MORE AMIRITE

i'm just trying to get rid of this bet before the racist newsletter story comes out again.

Anyone have numbers for how many people caucused in Iowa last time around?

Just curious what kind of numbers we'll be seeing, if they'll be close to statistically significant odds and whatnot. (i.e. will there be more than 1k participating)

120,000 attended last time around, almost certainly going to be significantly higher without competing Democratic caucuses.

I don't know why you were banned...I assumed it was frequent low substance high insult posts which typically isn't a good debate strategy.

Mods here do a pretty good job and if you make alot of high quality posts and slip up and insult somebody they are more forgiving than if you just post badly all the time.

Can someone please tell me why Iowa is so important here? Do people like me in California vote don't matter for the primaries? I apologize I don't know how primaries work

While I have said that CA R primaries don't matter, other people have probably proved that I'm wrong. You should probably listen to them.

Mostly cuz it's first. Sometimes the race is effectively over by the time californians get to vote. It is a silly system...they should really just have everybody vote the same day like they do in real elections.

Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are very important to shaping the national storyline because they go first. There simply isn't enough money for eight candidates to campaign nationally, so they start with small states where it's possible for candidates with relatively low budgets like Santorum to visit every county and get his message out to a large percentage of voters. These states take it upon themselves to pay more attention to the race and the candidates than the average American. Last time around, Huckabee took Iowa, McCain took New Hampshire, and Romney took Michigan setting up a three way race. Huckabee's failure to topple McCain in South Carolina pretty much ended his chances at the nomination. By not competing for any of those early states, Giuliani, Thompson, and Paul were rendered irrelevant. When McCain beat Romney in Florida, the race was over.