Victor has been popping in with these takes the last few months.

Here is one from August:

No.

This thing where you guys take any statement that implies a confidence different from what the great PREDICTIT.COM says and immediately offer bets is ridiculous and pathetic.

Then when Victor makes an obvious joke making fun of this absurd practice, spending a page discussing what the consequences for his SERIOUS TRANSGRESSION should be just makes you all look like busto losers.

The fact that this is on gambling forum where peoples ought to be able to discern what a real bet looks like makes it a million times worse.

Down 300 aorn

masonlahhhhhhhh

eh, Victor's an OK guy for an OSUbr0

It’s mostly pegged to inflation. Or, more specifically, to the Employment Cost Index. Inflation was largely down during the Obama years and has been rising since Trump was elected.

I would like to see a poll of "WOAT Trump thread derails" but some poor soul would have to go through and make a list of them. Maybe a draft then?

.

Just going through Amazon looking for some books to buy and I found 'It can't happen here' by Sinclair Lewis in my recommendations

The blurb sounds rather outlandish...

Yeah, Sinclair Lewis was pretty spot on in that book.

What? This is silly.

Predictit says Trump has a 29% chance to win in 2020. This is a thinly traded market and there's a huge error bar on it. The error bar is so big that it's pretty reasonable to think that Trump's chances are actually 15% or 45%. In fact, if you said "Trump has a 45% chance to win", I doubt anyone would call you out on it (I mistakenly said he was 40% yesterday and no one called me on it).

Alternatively, you can state some legitimate reasons why you think a market is wrong. "I live in district X and congressional candidate Y is turning out the black vote better than expected; I think the market might be misvaluing this" is good analysis! Note, "Russians" and "riggage" are not valid reasons why a market could be wrong.

What's destructive to the conversation is when people say "TRUMP IS A LOCK" with no real (or, very low level) analysis to back it up. When this happens, the fact that they can be called on their bull**** by having a bet proposed to them is absolutely a figure and not a bug. It deters morons from posting any old hot take. If ESPN made Skip Bayless back up all of his hot takes with his wallet maybe it would be somewhat watchable.

Finally LOL @ you calling people trying to scoop action "busto losers", rep was taking a (admittedly long) shot at $7k in EV for like 10 seconds of work, I'm sure you're rich enough to not care about that kind of money though.

"Feature not a bug" is obviously what I meant. Edit isn't working for me at the moment.

lol. He could win OH, and FL, but if he loses PA/MI/WI he still loses. He barely won them in 2016, and all 3 swung hard blue in 2018. They all have democratic governors now, making riggage a lot harder.

I agree that OH is turning more deplorable each cycle. It's electorally looking a lot more like it's surrounding states of IN/KY/WV that it is the bluer parts of the midwest. It's never been part of the blue wall needed for democrats to win the electoral college.

While it gets redder, other parts of the country are getting bluer. AZ and NC are in play to flip. FL is still in play, and GA is getting there as well.

Of course the market can be wrong and if Victor believes that he can go to any number of sites and bet on it instead of offering 100-1 to a bunch of schlubs.

A 0% shot at 7k is not worth spending any amount of posts embarrassing yourself, but thanks for playing.

This is why it's not funny to name your wifi hotspot "FBI Surveillance Van"

I mean, thats exactly what I am saying. its very hard for dems to win when he takes ohio and florida. they would need to parlay a bunch of states that they lost in the last example and that have been instilling riggage for years.

its like, this forum has the shortest memory ever. remember what happened when he was a lock to lose in 2016? hes actually a bigger favorite than 2016 due to incumbency, riggage, and demographics in certain states turning more red.

hes gonna lose the popular by like 6m and win the EC.

Eh, I could care less about the bets. His dropping in and making those claims is annoying and/or trolling. Look at the post I quoted about the House victory chances in August. That aged well.

As a Gen-Xer, I enjoy being jaded as much as the next guy, but these doom-and-gloom “Trump is a lock to win!” posts are AIDS. Stop trying to demoralize people, stop making ludicrous claims that you can’t back up. We need to get the base hyped and motivated for 2020 and that’s not going to be easy.

Who knows?

It was as obviously not serious as some of DS's jokes.

Don't care to keep defending Victor and I agree he's being overly dramatic, but this seems nitpicky. Should I go dig up posts before the 2016 election and see how well those aged?

You can. I don't care though. My point was that Victor has been dropping in like this since last fall. That post and today's aren't the only times he's made these claims.

It's something higher than 0%. You can go back and look at my posting history, I got someone to offer me 15-1 for $100 on Trump a few days before the 2016 election.

Sadly I completely forgot the thread it was in and never quoted to book, lol me

Of course 100 to 1 against Trump losing doesn't count as a real offer to bet. I'm surprised this isn't booked at 1 cent to 1 dollar though just to make the nonsense complete. I won't escrow any $10k bets, but I offer to escrow at $.01/$1.

In other news, the pee tape is realer than Real Deal Holyfield:

Cell signal puts Cohen outside Prague around time of purported Russian meeting

Checks another Steele Dossier box if true.

In an amazing twist, it turns out that Cohen's passport cover may not have been as conclusive as we initially believed..