The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. - Page 5245 - Politics and Economics

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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

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12-12-2018 , 08:21 PM

#131101

SirOsis

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 29,516

Look at these *******s (more in thread)

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1072588457845972993

12-12-2018 , 08:21 PM

#131102

TheHip41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 27,049

Setting aside NSA considerations

I don’t want him to die

I want humiliation.

Impeachment. Family goes to jail. We find out he’s broke

**** that guy.

12-12-2018 , 08:27 PM

#131103

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 59,884

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

Winning an open seat in Arizona against a strong candidate is at least as good an indicator as losing an incumbent seat in Florida against an inexplicably popular sitting governor imo.

It's an indication that Arizona may be more likely to go blue than Florida in the near term.

I'd argue that very few resources should be spent in Florida in 2020. There's not even a down ballot senate race that year unless Scott or Rubio die/resign unexpectedly in the next two years.

12-12-2018 , 08:33 PM

#131104

synth_floyd

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Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,074

Trump won Florida by 1.2% in 2016. In 2018, Scott won by 0.12%, DeSantis won by 0.4%.

Not sure how comparable they are but it doesn't seem like the state has gone more red since 2016. It's still a tossup.

12-12-2018 , 08:47 PM

#131105

AllTheCheese

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Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

My response is:

Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

This + re-enfranchisement of former felons, which probably favors Democrats (cue rightwinger quoting my post with some hurrr durrr comment).

12-12-2018 , 09:14 PM

#131106

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 75,322

12-12-2018 , 09:28 PM

#131107

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 59,884

Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

In the most important midterm election of my lifetime, the state of Florida said: "Let's throw out our incumbent who is largely opposing the Trump agenda. I want the Trumpist."

R+1.2 in 2016 to R+0.1 in 2018 is PATHETIC for an incumbent.

PA/WI/MI/ME/MN all had D incumbent senators in states that were also very close for Trump in 2016. All of them won reelection by at least 5 points.

NV and AZ flipped. OH/MT/WV went big time for Trump 2016, but still kept their D incumbents.

Florida is a pretty unique failure here.

12-12-2018 , 09:47 PM

#131108

Hellmuth was right

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 5,816

Does nobody here remember 2010?

12-12-2018 , 09:52 PM

#131109

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 85,617

Florida has a lot of olds, uneducated and rurals

12-12-2018 , 09:58 PM

#131110

AllTheCheese

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Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

It is unique in that Donald Trump has negative net approvals in all the other states you mention, but not Florida where he is like +2 net approval. That goes to your point, but that number is not even close to insurmountable. You're writing off Florida because of your feels, basically. We're talking about recent electoral margins all within about 1 point.

When you say "don't spend any money on Florida," (1) being outspent is probably why Bill Nelson lost, and (2) you're saying the money we would spend in Florida is worth more than the ~10+ expected value of electoral votes gained by running a serious campaign there.

12-12-2018 , 10:01 PM

#131111

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 75,322

there are worse options

12-12-2018 , 10:05 PM

#131112

Money2Burn

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Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 12,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

Meh, not really the same. An incumbent lost in Florida. That did not happen in AZ/OH/MT/WV.

Rick Scott was basically an incumbent, too.

12-12-2018 , 10:06 PM

#131113

grando1.0

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Lmao I laughed pretty hard lol yeswecanseco

12-12-2018 , 10:10 PM

#131114

jmakin

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 27,807

literally everything, everything from the last two years was worth it if Hannity ends up behind bars. He's the real whale here.

12-12-2018 , 10:11 PM

#131115

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 75,322

who's gonna tell her?

12-12-2018 , 10:16 PM

#131116

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 59,884

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

I'll confess that's probably part of it. But certainly not the whole story.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

When you say "don't spend any money on Florida," (1) being outspent is probably why Bill Nelson lost, and (2) you're saying the money we would spend in Florida is worth more than the ~10+ expected value of electoral votes gained by running a serious campaign there.

Yes, I'm saying exactly that.

Remember, we not only need the presidency to get anything serious done, we need to take the senate too. To maximize what we need to get done, focus should be on close states where we could get both a senate seat and electoral votes.

I'm not saying spend absolutely no money in Florida, but it should be considerably down the priority list. Certainly behind all of CO/IA/AZ/ME/NC. Maybe even GA too.

12-12-2018 , 10:21 PM

#131117

jmakin

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 27,807

Obamacare got through without control of both legislatures

12-12-2018 , 10:31 PM

#131118

m_reed05

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Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 8,611

Ohio Senate seat wasn't seriously contested by the gop. Ohio governors race is a better barometer of the current environment in Ohio, and the R won handily.

FL is significantly more likely to go blue in 2020 than Ohio.

12-12-2018 , 10:42 PM

#131119

Huehuecoyotl

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Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 29,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominic

there are worse options

Guaranteed, in two years, we'd have the swollest cabinet in the world.

12-12-2018 , 10:43 PM

#131120

Clovis8

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 16,503

Lawyers,

Why is the judge today in Cohen’s sentencing still saying individual one when it’s been formally linked to trump in other legal proceedings?

Why do they keep up the facade?