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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

10-30-2018 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Even Current Affairs faith in courts (' do the people who agree with this interpretation control the courts, or do the people who disagree with it control them') seems pretty naive. Courts are only meaningful if cops and the security state respect them. We've seen plenty of cases where everything from local cops to the FBI/CIA blatantly disregard court orders and the law and just do whatever the **** they want. The idea that courts are some final arbiter is a polite fiction, none of this operates without force in the end, as ACists used to point out.
You people are game planning for a significantly more popular and competent version of Trump. Embrace the farce.

The guy's base of support is literally the least economically and culturally relevant segment of society. He's not a dragon, he's a speed bump. The rascal scooters will not be able to catch the transexuals running for/or to the border.

Even people who are in favor of the deepstate underestimate its power.

A buracret Trump tried to remove just referred a cabinet member for prosecution. The amry won't even ban transgender people. The govt will be not be defining sex as 100% binary. The 14th amendment thing will be forgotten in a week. There is zero prospect for genocide and mentioning it is stupid. The SCt allowed the ungerrymandering of PA to stand, losing the GOP like 3 seats. Trump is empty calories. Smoke less pot in your dorm rooms. Even Kanye has been freed.

It's easy to cheat on taxes and launder money. They basically accept your word. It's really hard to force the government to do unconventional and unpopular things. Hell, confirming Kavanaugh was downright conventional and they has to kill the filibuster to do it. That will make a nice precedent for completely removing it to enact single payer.

Last edited by simplicitus; 10-30-2018 at 07:22 PM.
10-30-2018 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
The guy's base of support is literally the least economically and culturally relevant segment of society.
Is it?
10-30-2018 , 07:30 PM
I highly recommend clicking through to that and reading the thread. Comedy gold.
10-30-2018 , 07:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
The guy's base of support is literally the least economically and culturally relevant segment of society.
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-p...ction-results/

Check out the 8 or 9 precincts around Newport Beach. They are as much as 70% for Trump.

and..

People earning under $50k vote 53/41 Clinton
$50-$100k voted 46/49 Trump
$100k+ 47/47

Liberal white dude in OC making good money, you are in the minority.

Last edited by microbet; 10-30-2018 at 07:44 PM.
10-30-2018 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
It was a bad week. My sincere take is that I think we have to effectively write off the next 10-20 years as white Boomers have incredible amounts of wealth and social power, are very racist or minimally wound up for a protracted kulturkampf and the US political system is simply beholden to an entrenched minority with a lot of wealth.

I think the likely outcome is we'll slouch along for a generation, hopefully avoid like catastrophic destruction and civil war, hopefully not get aggressive abroad, and maybe by say the 2030s enough of the Boomers will have died off and been replaced by better people, we can reassess the long term future. Think the next 10-20 years, our mission is simply going to be to obstruct and protect what we can, it's going to be long and painful, there will be more weeks like this. Life in a failing democracy.
What about angels of mercy? Might be coverage for an accelerated time line.
10-30-2018 , 07:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by All-In Flynn
You'd nearly think it had gotten them control of all three branches of Federal government and the lion's share of governorships and state legislatures or something.
Yeah. This isn't a tactic that worked one time by dumb luck. Simplicitus may or may not be right about the long term trend, but there has been significant research about these kinds of strategies in the short term. The more you talk about race, the more conservative people get and the more they vote for republicans.

That said, I'm not sure how effective this particular tactic will be. For one, there are a lot of stories in the news right now, and this might get drowned out. Plus, it's such a transparent move that people might not engage with the question of whether or not birthright citizenship should exist. So far, the vast majority of discussion has centered around whether or not it's a good move politically, and whether or not it could be done legally.
10-30-2018 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-p...ction-results/

Check out the 8 or 9 precincts around Newport Beach. They are as much as 70% for Trump.

and..

People earning under $50k vote 53/41 Clinton
$50-$100k voted 46/49 Trump
$100k+ 47/47

Liberal white dude in OC making good money, you are in the minority.
I live in newport beach. You wouldn't think it to look at the campaign signs around here - almost all Rouda. I've actually tried to find a rohrbacher sign and have yet to see one, other than the "Republicans against Rohrbacher" signs.

Newport beach's political and cultural demographic has been noticeably changing, and I'm not really sure why. Most of the beach front properties are vacant 90% of the year, or air bnb'd. I think this has something to do with it, but again I'm not sure, just what I (and basically everyone I know) have noticed.

Balboa island in particular used to be a deep red sector of NB. Now it is a literal blue wave of rouda signs. My neighborhood I'd put in a similar category, and it went purple in 2016.
10-30-2018 , 07:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmakin
I live in newport beach. You wouldn't think it to look at the campaign signs around here - almost all Rouda. I've actually tried to find a rohrbacher sign and have yet to see one, other than the "Republicans against Rohrbacher" signs.

Newport beach's demographic has been rapidly changing, and I'm not really sure why. Most of the beach front properties are vacant 90% of the year, or air bnb'd.
They know it's socially frowned upon to broadcast that they vote for the lunatic bigots. My city went fairly strongly Clinton, but still the significant minority of Trump voters didn't put up any signs.

The LOUD Trump supporters may largely be from the living-in a-van class, but there are a lot of deplorable Kavanaugh types in the world too and they only scream and cry when they are testifying before the Senate.
10-30-2018 , 07:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Is there any evidence that George Soros has ever paid a dime to a protester or to someone trying to enter the country illegally?

I guess I am asking whether this stuff is 100% anti-Semitic conspiracy bull****, or 99.8% anti-Semitic conspiracy bull****.

I've always assumed the former.
George Sorros is the most low profile demo demon in history. I assume 999.9999% of soros decries could not identify him in a line up with Boy George, the Rock, Cindi Lauper, and John Cena.
10-30-2018 , 07:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmakin
I live in newport beach. You wouldn't think it to look at the campaign signs around here - almost all Rouda. I've actually tried to find a rohrbacher sign and have yet to see one, other than the "Republicans against Rohrbacher" signs.

Newport beach's political and cultural demographic has been noticeably changing, and I'm not really sure why. Most of the beach front properties are vacant 90% of the year, or air bnb'd. I think this has something to do with it, but again I'm not sure, just what I (and basically everyone I know) have noticed.

Balboa island in particular used to be a deep red sector of NB. Now it is a literal blue wave of rouda signs. My neighborhood I'd put in a similar category, and it went purple in 2016.
rohrbacher is nationally famous for being a russian collaborator. i'm nowhere near your district and i've heard audio of the house majority leader saying he believes putin pays him. and when people around the house majority leader nervously laughed, he cut them off and clarified that he was not joking by insisting, "i swear to god"

i don't think he had that kind of notoriety last time he was up for election
10-30-2018 , 08:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
They know it's socially frowned upon to broadcast that they vote for the lunatic bigots. My city went fairly strongly Clinton, but still the significant minority of Trump voters didn't put up any signs.

The LOUD Trump supporters may largely be from the living-in a-van class, but there are a lot of deplorable Kavanaugh types in the world too and they only scream and cry when they are testifying before the Senate.


I’m not saying you’re wrong I’m just saying times are changing quickly. I mean even rouda is about as blue blood Newport Beach is you could possibly get, part of the reason I liked his opponent more. But I ended up voting for him anyway because I thought he had a better chance at winning.
10-30-2018 , 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus

https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status...760707072?s=19
Lol wut?
10-30-2018 , 08:11 PM
Haha ye is a doof

Haha I love this Jacob stuff. Dude was playing 8d chess in his moms basement love it.




Last edited by fatkid; 10-30-2018 at 08:20 PM.
10-30-2018 , 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmakin
I’m not saying you’re wrong I’m just saying times are changing quickly. I mean even rouda is about as blue blood Newport Beach is you could possibly get, part of the reason I liked his opponent more. But I ended up voting for him anyway because I thought he had a better chance at winning.
I know Trump is an absolute lock with older white Christian males with no college, but rich white people are slightly red and the blame shouldn't all be cast in the rabble.
10-30-2018 , 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
I know Trump is an absolute lock with older white Christian males with no college, but rich white people are slightly red and the blame shouldn't all be cast in the rabble.


Rich whites are very much motivated by self interest, and while the tax cuts are undoubtedly popular with that group, i think a lot of the other stuff isn’t - especially the trade war stuff. Anyone with a small amount of education can immediately see how damaging a trade war is to their own economic interests, and with rapid inflation almost unquestionably on the horizon, they will certainly see their wealth shrink by a not insignificant factor. and it’s not like democrats have been entirely unfriendly to the wealthy’s interests either. I’m not trying to argue that they’ll vote blue, I just think trump’s main platforms are VERY much against their interests and I think a lot of them are aware of this on some level.

I’m obviously talking out of my ass and anecdotally so feel free to disregard anything I’m saying, I think CA48 is very much up for grabs and this demographic will play a part in it.
10-30-2018 , 08:44 PM
A world wide rise of far right authoritarianism is a speed bump? Even if we get around this, everywhere else isn't.
10-30-2018 , 08:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...84257494765568


https://twitter.com/daveweigel/statu...54314488414208
Isn't there too much credit being given here? Trump is simply a racist and it worked in his favor the first go round. There's no thought or planning, it's just who he is.
10-30-2018 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnEPark
Isn't there too much credit being given here? Trump is simply a racist and it worked in his favor the first go round. There's no thought or planning, it's just who he is.
I think everyone is saying Trump is just clicking buttons. Sometimes it will work, but no one seems too confident in what will happen next week.
10-30-2018 , 10:05 PM
I mean

10-30-2018 , 10:10 PM
This is the threat we are facing. It's time to panic. Genocide is just around the corner. #holidayinn


https://twitter.com/GideonResnick/st...659370498?s=19
10-30-2018 , 10:15 PM
Holy *uck NBC
10-30-2018 , 10:15 PM
Everything is fine because one really dumb guy who looks like he's dying of liver cirrhosis can't draw a crowd, seems legit.
10-30-2018 , 10:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Namath12
I mean

NBC News has become ****ing garbage. They did everything they could to squelch Ronan Farrow's groundbreaking #MeToo coverage, they hired Megyn Kelly to the tune of $60M, and the chairman Andrew Lack overlooked a bunch of internal sexual harassment scandals. They've surpassed the NYT editorial pages as America's premiere source of gaslighting agitprop.
10-30-2018 , 10:35 PM
Fox news draws enough viewers to reliably contribute $1 bn/yr to its parent company and to generously pay its hosts and contributors. If you were a politically agnostic but even semi-ambitious exec you would not mess with the formula much. Most of the true believers are now gone, and the only question is how to present "news" such that you don't lose too many eyeballs and have to answer tough questions about numbers from parent co's management.

But even though it makes money and is influential, there's no real reason to believe that amplifying its signal will allow you to win a midterm election. In fact, that'd be pretty damn amazing, given that most voters don't watch cable news, and the combined ratings of cnn and MSNBC are greater than fox (and MSNBC is, I think, greater in the demos advertisers pay for).

Trumps Fox strategy for the midterms, I believe, is like the drunk looking for his keys under the lamp post, not because he lost them there but because "that's where the light is." And I don't think that will work out.

      
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