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Originally Posted by simplicitus
Very low. That's why Obama wanted to drastically reduce nukes.
With current nuke technology and protocols, I would put the half-life of the current form of civilization at like 60 years. If something is not done, maybe 500 million people will die, maybe 2 billion, maybe only 20 million. It may not be the end of civilization (though it may be), but it will not be a good time.
Getting rid of Trump would be a good start.
You know I've been thinking about the comparisons between nation-states having nuclear weapons and a family having a gun in the house.
The family "feels" safer, with a gun in the house, even though literally the data states that you're more likely to use it to commit suicide or kill your own family member accidentally than use it on an intruder.
And the nation-state "feels" safer, with a stockpile of nuclear weapons, even though their very existence threatens our civilization, the human race, and all life on Earth.
But just like when you approach the family regarding the gun, you get the, that won't happen to my family. We're smart about it.
It's the same way approaching a nuclear power. That will never happen on our watch.
But you won't realize it until it's too late. The gun is already smoking. Or you can see the mushroom cloud.