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Predict The Senate Contest Predict The Senate Contest

11-01-2014 , 02:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy
At this point I think it all comes down to GA and IA, and the Dems must win both to have a chance at a 50/50 senate. And that's if they also win the other two close ones that they are projected to win (NC, NH), AND Orman (I) in KS caucuses with the Dems. He only said he would go with either party that has a clear majority, and he did not say what he would do if he's the tiebreaker.

I see no scenario possible at this point where the Dems get a clear majority. They need all five of the above for 50/50 (and they keep control with the VP).

GA is looking more and more like it's going to Perdue.
NOG:

GA is looking more and more like a dead heat that will surely go to a runoff - as will North Carolina and Louisiana. Both Kansas and Iowa are too close to call. We may not know the outcome of voting in Alaska until a week after the election. (If Scott Brown wins in New Hampshire, then I will be drunk before 9:00 P.M.)

Tuesday night will be fun for true political junkies, but control of the Senate probably won't be decided until December - and possibly well into January.

Last edited by Alan C. Lawhon; 11-01-2014 at 02:17 AM.
11-01-2014 , 02:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan C. Lawhon
Less Than 2,000 Women Could Cost Republicans Their Georgia Senate Seat

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/1...n_6055574.html

Things like this (along with Perdue's "I'm Proud of Outsourcing" remarks) may just wind up getting Michelle Nunn elected. After this latest glib brushoff by Mr. Perdue, I'm starting to feel more confident about my going-against-the-grain prediction for a flip in Georgia. According to the article, at least one poll is now showing Ms. Nunn up by three percentage points - and that was before this latest revelation. (Mr. Perdue's inexperience at running for - and holding - elective office is showing if he thought he could sweep stuff like this under the rug. Did he actually believe opposition researchers wouldn't look at his record with a magnifying glass?)
Makes me wonder if the Republican "establishment's" plan to vet the candidates to make sure that no "Todd Akins" are on the ballot may have been a useless effort. The only dumber statement in this campaign was Mrs. Clinton's "don't let anybody tell you it's corporations and businesses that creates jobs" abomination.
11-01-2014 , 02:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan C. Lawhon
NOG:

GA is looking more and more like a dead heat that will surely go to a runoff - as will North Carolina and Louisiana. Both Kansas and Iowa are too close to call. We may not know the outcome of voting in Alaska until a week after the election. (If Scott Brown wins in New Hampshire, then I will be drunk before 9:00 P.M.)

Tuesday night will be fun for true political junkies, but control of the Senate probably won't be decided until December - and possibly well into January.
In LA the runoff won't even be close, Landrieu loses it in a landslide. The runoff just postpones that.

I think Hagan is pretty safe in NC, runoff or not.

I think Alaska is not as close as you think it is.

KS isn't a factor unless the Dems run the table to force Orman to be the tie breaker, assuming he wins.

So I still say it all comes down to GA and IA at this point. Dems need both.
11-02-2014 , 05:46 PM
Deadline For Contest Entry

After two-and-a-half months of estimating/guesstimating/prognosticating and gesticulating; we're almost there: Election day is less than 48 hours away. For all the fence sitters who have been waiting until the last minute to make your predictions, the time is near. The deadline for submitting your formal entry to my "Predict The Senate" contest is Monday, November 3rd, 11:59:59 P.M. Eastern Standard Time (or Daylight Savings Time or whatever time we're now on.) Any last minute post that comes in with a November 4 date and time stamp, (even if it would have been the "winning" entry), will not count. (See OP

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...61&postcount=1

for "official" contest rules.)

Submitting a last minute revision of a previous entry is not allowed. (If that were the case, I would be changing a bunch of my predictions right now as I think my "psychic" advisor was either drinking - or smoking something funny - when she told me Alison Lundergan-Grimes would win in Kentucky ...)

Will I win my own contest - or will I pass out in a depression-induced alcoholic stupor drowning my sorrows in a swimming pool of booze? Will I be able to survive two years of needling from Seattle Lou and ikes, or will the enlightened voters of Kansas [and Georgia?] save Harry Reid's bacon? (All this suspense is killing me!)

After Tuesday, will I be able to resume a normal life and quit reading Politico, The Huffington Post, Five-Thirty-Eight, The Upshot, The Princeton Election Consortium, Real Clear Politics, The Washington Post, Salon et al. and attending Political Junkies Anonymous meetings? We'll know in a few days - maybe ...

Last edited by Alan C. Lawhon; 11-02-2014 at 05:58 PM. Reason: Minor edit.
11-05-2014 , 12:31 AM
Well it's over, no need to wait for the LA runoff (where Landrieu has no chance anyway). Power has changed hands in the Senate.

I got NC wrong as Hagan lost in a surprise upset. I think I got the other 35 right.

Edit: missed Kansas too, as the Ind. lost to the Repub.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 11-05-2014 at 12:40 AM.
11-05-2014 , 01:57 AM
Hello:

I am Cherie - one of Alan's former wives. I have some very sad and unfortunate news to report. Alan is with us no more. As he was watching Joni Ernst gloating about how she was headed to Washington to castrate Democrat senators (or whatever she said), he cried out: "That's it, I can't take it anymore!" (He also muttered something about the world going crazy ...) With those agonized words, he grabbed his gun, shot the TV and then shot himself. It was all over in seconds.
11-05-2014 , 02:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan C. Lawhon
Hello:

I am Cherie - one of Alan's former wives. I have some very sad and unfortunate news to report. Alan is with us no more. As he was watching Joni Ernst gloating about how she was headed to Washington to castrate Democrat senators (or whatever she said), he cried out: "That's it, I can't take it anymore!" (He also muttered something about the world going crazy ...) With those agonized words, he grabbed his gun, shot the TV and then shot himself. It was all over in seconds.
Should I go back into rgp to turn out the lights?
11-06-2014 , 11:48 AM
on a brief perusal, most of y'all did embarrassingly bad
11-06-2014 , 02:28 PM
Cherie,

I'm so sorry to hear about Alan. I'm sorry to bother you with this but....

I think I finished 2nd in the contest. Only one miss, but someone posted earlier than I with the same prediction.

My question is......did Alan tell you where to send my runner-up prize, and, if so, when should I expect it?

      
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