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Politics people: political predictions plus punditry performance (p)accountability Politics people: political predictions plus punditry performance (p)accountability

11-05-2008 , 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snagglepuss
i predict in the event of joe biden owning sarah palin in the debate*, that she begins to cry as planned for sympathy. if the topic of abortion or stemcells is in any way involved, the mccain camp/media spin it as a 'disgusting and offensive personal attack by joe biden' or some similar nonsense. distraction from issues ftw


*which im making no certain prediction of
Wrong. You neglected to take into account that Palin was too clueless to realize that she was getting owned.
11-05-2008 , 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynton
I predict that a few people who have predictions mentioned in this thread are not going to be hanging around this forum after Nov. 2d.
CORRECT!!!!!!!
11-05-2008 , 08:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
I predict that I'm going to end up either in the loony bin or with a terminal case of cirrhosis of the liver because of this forum.
Not yet determined, but false dichotomy imo.
11-05-2008 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spaceman Bryce
i predict john mccain will win fwiw.
Um, nope.
11-05-2008 , 08:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu Pidasso
Come November [Obama] drops to 0 [on inTrade].

Stu
.
Nope. Sorry, Stu.
11-05-2008 , 08:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seether
I'm predicting McCain will win, and for my dark horse prediction, Palin will resign and be replaced during the term.
Also nope.
11-05-2008 , 08:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
September 27, 2008



As much as I like McCain, I wouldn't mind Obama simply for the fact that I think he will be a competent leader. I think McCain would do better, but I don't see how Republicans can win this somehow. People want new leadership and Obama is that leadership.

Also, I really think Obama's ground game is going to come through for him.

So barring a major fiasco or the revelation that Obama really is a Muslim, this is what I think would happen.
Nope

Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotR
My counter-prediction: Obama does not win NC without winning Ohio.
Ship it!!
11-05-2008 , 08:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynton
No later than a week from today, the McCain campaign will start calling Obama "presumptuous" for acting like he's already won the election. This claim will be based entirely upon comments from the media (and perhaps from bloggers unassociated with Obama officially), rather than actual comments from the Obama campaign, with one exception:

McCain will also note that Obama has a transition team in place (which according to reports I read in the past few days, is totally standard for the parties to do at this stage).
Ship. Wynton rules at predictions.
11-05-2008 , 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
I predict that Barack Obama will be declared the next president by at least 3 of the major news stations before 10 pm EST on Nov. 4. Furthermore, I predict that Colorado will be the state that pushes Obama over 270 EVs.
Nope.
11-05-2008 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miajag
We're definitely going to have at least a couple hours of the networks saying "Without [FL/VA/OH/etc] it's going to be a lot tougher for McCain to win, but he can pull it off if he wins NY, CA and IL" before they officially declare.

Half credit. They didn't declare it all over when they called Oh and Pa (though anyone with a brain knew it was) but no one mentioned something stupid like McCain carrying CA either.
11-05-2008 , 08:23 PM
Your pony was slow on declaring me wrong on that one.
11-05-2008 , 08:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
Your pony was slow on declaring me wrong on that one.
Oops. Ok then I'll stop now.
11-05-2008 , 08:27 PM
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41...5/#post6440425

Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
We'll know in November when Intrade likely spreads the contracts (assuming McCain loses), but I'm guessing [Palin's] price isn't in the top 3 on the GOP side; maybe not in the top 5.

Prediction thread material imo.
Ehh....low volume market:



1. Romney
2. Jindal
3. Huckleberry
4. Sarah Barracuda

But I think I'd like to reassess on Dec. 1st once someone actually starts trading these contracts.
11-06-2008 , 12:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pvn
irrational exuberance imo
give me some credit, I was gonna arb the hell out of that on Intrade ldo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
But I think I'd like to reassess on Dec. 1st once someone actually starts trading these contracts.
I'll double up with you on this. If she hits top 3, it's because a handful of individual bettors are not very good at politics, rather than any predictive value.
11-06-2008 , 01:00 AM
i want to go ahead and predict one or a combinaton of the following occurs within the next 9 months:

-biological terrorist attack within the US
-biological attack or concentrated substantial attack on US soldiers abroad
-us military action within pakistan or syria as a result
11-06-2008 , 01:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snagglepuss
i want to go ahead and predict one or a combinaton of the following occurs within the next 9 months:

-biological terrorist attack within the US
-biological attack or concentrated substantial attack on US soldiers abroad
-us military action within pakistan or syria as a result
I would like to predict that you have listened to too much Joe Biden and/or Joe Biden on SNL.
11-06-2008 , 01:04 AM
give me a line?

and yeah i wasn't comforted by ol joe
11-06-2008 , 01:11 AM
I had a dream about a much larger 9/11 the night before I went to the Grant Park rally, and was ever so slightly on edge while there.
11-07-2008 , 02:49 PM
Why leave "professional" pundits out of the fun?

Salon: "How wrong they were". Featuring special appearances by William "Billy" Kristol, Karl "Turdblossom" Rove, Pete "Realclearpolitics.com" Mulhern, Ann "One Cup" Coulter, Rudy "Florida" Giuliani, Hillary "The Frontrunner" Clinton, George "Macaca" Allen, Rush "Cabbage" Limbaugh, Katherine "K-Lo" Lopez, Dick "Toesucker" Morris, and more.

11-07-2008 , 02:51 PM
Dick Morris will be right in 2016 ldo
11-07-2008 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
I can't believe I filled up around $3.00 I still have half a tank left ugh!!!
See, this is why you need a V-8. You could've already filled up twice on this delicious, cheap gas.
11-07-2008 , 02:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Dick Morris will be right in 2016 ldo
To be fair to Morris, he does indicate that he considers Rice vs. Clinton the be the next great presidential race. Maybe he thought this one was just OK.
11-08-2008 , 02:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotR
Nope
Really no credit at all ?? My prediction at the time was over a month away. I also had North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico. Not to mention the fact that I was right about him winning the whole damn thing. No one at the time even wanted to make a similar prediction.
11-08-2008 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
No one at the time even wanted to make a similar prediction.
No one wanted to make a similar prediction on September 27th?



Lehman/AIG was on September 15th, this thing was in the bag on Sept. 27th
11-08-2008 , 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
No one wanted to make a similar prediction on September 27th?



Lehman/AIG was on September 15th, this thing was in the bag on Sept. 27th
That's not a prediction it's a polling average.

I am talking about people on this site, when I made that prediction I thought people would surely follow with their own. No one wanted too. The only people on this site that might have a claim to saying they predicted Obama would win are the ones that got him at even odds or better around the same time. And they probably got him because of good value and not because they necessarily thought he would win.

      
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