Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Obama vs. McCain: General Election Chatter For July Obama vs. McCain: General Election Chatter For July

07-28-2008 , 08:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
I already told him this 2 weeks ago. He didn't listen apparently and probably enjoys it.

And the USA Today/Gallup Poll just shows that the 9 point lead Obama has right now is no big deal. And that was only one poll.
Same guy calling people delusional by...showing polls that McCain had tightened the gap?
07-28-2008 , 08:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vezzy
This election isn't about McCain. He is the safe alternative.


The election is all about Obama. Can we risk electing him? or must we settle for the safe alternative?


Obama continues to do a good job of showing how risky and incompetent he would be as president.

So it is no surprise that he is unable to build a solid lead in this race.
So Obama visits the rest of the world and has amazing stops in France and news that the Bush administration tried to spin on Iraq and this is EVIDENCE of his incompetence? Meanwhile McCain is back home fumbling every time he says a sentence?

You should really stick to the questioning his moral character attack...stacking Obama and McCain side by side in a "competence" battle looks bad for McCain right now.
07-28-2008 , 08:08 PM
Hope, hope, change, hope, change, change, hope, change, hope, hope, hope, change, hope.
07-28-2008 , 08:10 PM








OP,

I get the feeling you just don't want to "hear reasoning from Obama supporters as to how Obama's proposed economic and tax policies will help create a stronger economy" as much as you want to argue with Obama supporters as to how Obama's proposed economic and tax policies will help create a stronger economy. If you just wanted to "hear" his policies or just want to make yourself aware of them, go to the campaign website imo.
07-28-2008 , 08:14 PM
See economic performance under Bill Clinton.
07-28-2008 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynton
See economic performance under Bill Clinton.


just goes to show you don't do **** but give the **** out and the country can run its self


we don't need no stinking president, just a qween
07-28-2008 , 08:30 PM
Yes i should probably take some time off from polls, but I've been volunteering for The Obama campaign since Feb. of 2007, and i have been following it non stop since then. I have never really put this much time or effort into anything outside of work, so I'm kind of invested in it. I doubt i could pull myself away before November.
07-28-2008 , 08:49 PM
4H,

I'd limit yourself to just following 538. That distills the polls to the state ones and deemphasizes the national ones, plus it gives you a better representation of how much a single poll matters (read: not much).
07-28-2008 , 09:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1

OP,

I get the feeling you just don't want to "hear reasoning from Obama supporters as to how Obama's proposed economic and tax policies will help create a stronger economy" as much as you want to argue with Obama supporters as to how Obama's proposed economic and tax policies will help create a stronger economy. If you just wanted to "hear" his policies or just want to make yourself aware of them, go to the campaign website imo.
No, I am actually very curious as to why his supporters think the policies will be effective at creating long term economic benefits.
Here are some specific points I am interested in hearing your analysis of:

Tax cuts for the middle class while rolling back tax cuts on the highest earners.

Another round of stimulus checks.
07-28-2008 , 09:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seether
No, I am actually very curious as to why his supporters think the policies will be effective at creating long term economic benefits.
Here are some specific points I am interested in hearing your analysis of:

Tax cuts for the middle class while rolling back tax cuts on the highest earners.

Another round of stimulus checks.
You need an explanation of why tax cuts for the middle class while help the economy?
07-29-2008 , 01:24 AM
No, I would like an explanation of how they think the cutting of middle class taxes while rolling back taxes such as capital gains will help the economy.
07-29-2008 , 01:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesnowflake
You need an explanation of why tax cuts for the middle class while help the economy?
Tax cuts for the middle class will help the economy.

What do you think raising the capital gains tax will do to the economy?
07-29-2008 , 02:49 AM


Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
07-29-2008 , 04:54 AM
This is one flip-flop that doesn't bother me. It seems much more honest to me to keep these taxation issues on the table rather than campaign on a promise he knows he might not keep.

Quote:
Originally Posted by John McCain
WASHINGTON - Republican presidential candidate John McCain drew a sharp rebuke Monday from conservatives after he signaled an openness to a higher payroll tax for Social Security, contrary to previous vows not to raise taxes of any kind.


Speaking with reporters on his campaign bus on July 9, he cited a need to shore up Social Security, saying: "I cannot tell you what I would do, except to put everything on the table."

He went a step farther Sunday with his reponse on a nationally televised talk show to a question about payroll tax increases.

"There is nothing that's off the table. I have my positions, and I'll articulate them. But nothing's off the table," McCain said. "I don't want tax increases. But that doesn't mean that anything is off the table."
07-29-2008 , 05:26 AM
Since we live by following our celebrities, perhaps we should read what they say:


Angelina Jolie's Dad: 'Barack Obama Falls Short in Every Way'


VOIGHT: My concerns for America
07-29-2008 , 05:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jah7_fsu1
So Obama visits the rest of the world and has amazing stops in France and news that the Bush administration tried to spin on Iraq and this is EVIDENCE of his incompetence? Meanwhile McCain is back home fumbling every time he says a sentence?

You should really stick to the questioning his moral character attack...stacking Obama and McCain side by side in a "competence" battle looks bad for McCain right now.


Are you confusing "competence" with the ability to read a teleprompter and endlessly repeat the same platitudes?

Seems so.
07-29-2008 , 09:08 AM
oh please

obama offers middle class tax cuts

mccain wants to make bush's tax cuts for the rich permanent

and we are debating who is better for the average american?

i'm not getting drawn into that no sir
07-29-2008 , 10:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vezzy
This election isn't about McCain. He is the safe alternative.
Other than the dubious assertion that he's the safe alternative, you may be on to something.
07-29-2008 , 11:59 AM
Two former Bush Advisers Now Advising Obama, Will Appear at Economic Meeting Today

Quote:
ABC News has learned that two former administration officials for President George W. Bush will appear with Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, at an economic meeting today, having signed up to be Obama economic advisers.

Bush administration veterans former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and former Securities and Exchange Commissioner William Donaldson will join former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, and more traditionally Democratic economic advisers such as former Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, billionaire liberal Warren Buffett, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney, and SEIU Secretary-Treasurer Anna Burger.
07-29-2008 , 12:06 PM
No he doesn't? He ignores the fact that LV screens are based off of the question "Did you vote in the last election?" and greatly increase the accuracy of polls.
07-29-2008 , 12:13 PM
Wouldn't that be a bad thing? LOL. Bush 3rd term FTW!!!
07-29-2008 , 12:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
No he doesn't? He ignores the fact that LV screens are based off of the question "Did you vote in the last election?" and greatly increase the accuracy of polls.
He doesn't ignore this ikes. I think everyone agrees that likely voter models are fine and dandy when used appropriately.

From pollster.com, Emory Pol Sci Professor Alan Abramowitz -- who Nate cited:

Quote:
How do you get from a 47-44 Obama lead among RVs to a 49-45 McCain lead among LVs?

A few quick calculations shows how. You have 900 RVs and 791 LVs, so that means that among your 109 UVs (that's unlikely voters according to Gallup) Obama leads McCain by a whopping 61% to 7%.

Putting it another way, according to Gallup 16% of registered Obama supporters are unlikely to vote compared with only 2% of registered McCain supporters.
Nate, on this:

Quote:
Whatever one thinks about likely voter models in general, the mathematics of this particular implementation defy credulity.
So while you may favor likely voter models (and you should), the problem here is that math of this particular iteration is too incredible to believe.

Nate then (to further demonstrate he didn't "ignore" that likely voter screens are "more accurate") cited Erickson's study of why Gallup's Likely Voter screen is extremely volatile. From the Erickson study:

Quote:
Our argument explores a terrain that should be familiar to the polling community: On the one hand, there is good reason to identify likely voters on the grounds that registered respondents who are less likely to vote are disproportionately likely to express Democratic preferences. To ignore this frequent (but irregular) pattern is to overestimate support for Democratic candidates. On the other hand, estimates of who may be likely to vote in the weeks and months prior to Election Day in large part reflect transient political interest on the day of the poll, which might have little bearing on voter interests on the day of the election. Likely voters early in the campaign do not necessarily represent likely voters on Election Day. Early likely voter samples might well represent the pool of potential voters sufficiently excited to vote if a snap election were to be called on the day of the poll. But these are not necessarily the same people motivated to vote on Election Day.
Which is why Gallup editor Frank Newport cautions using his own model as a predictive measure:

Quote:
Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.
From Gallup -- Who Likely Voters Are and Why They Matter:

Quote:
The degree to which this current shift toward the GOP candidate among likely voters remains in place remains to be seen. In general, most poll consumers agree that the likely voter model is most predictive in the final poll before an election; analysis based on likely voter models this early in the campaign should be considered to be a snapshot in time and suggestive of possible turnout scenarios and their implications.
So "likely voter screens" are more accurate when the poll is taken the night before an election, not 100 days out, by Gallup's Frank Newport's own admission.

Last edited by DVaut1; 07-29-2008 at 12:37 PM.
07-29-2008 , 12:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
Wouldn't that be a bad thing? LOL. Bush 3rd term FTW!!!
From what little I know about both of them, they both apparently had a good amount of dust-ups and disagreements with the Bush administration; one reason why they are both former advisers, not current.

Edit: The article linked in fact says just that.

Quote:
Donaldson's tenure at the SEC was notable for his attempts to work with the Democratic Commissioners, for angering the US Chamber of Commerce and Republican legislators, and for abandoning an effort for shareholder proxy access.

O'Neill, the former CEO of Alcoa, had a stormy tenure as Bush's Treasury Secretary, and revealed his frustrations with the Bush administration -- especially over the war in Iraq, economic policy, and the President's leadership style -- in a book written by Ron Suskind, The Price of Loyalty: George W. Bush, the White House, and the Education of Paul O'Neill.
07-29-2008 , 12:45 PM
I think that's an interesting yet risky move for the Obama camp. On one hand people who who hate all things bush will never like this move even if it is a good one. But perhaps they thing that Obama has that crowd so in the bag he does not need to worry about them leaving ship. Which is think is true.

Also this move could make him appear better in the eyes of conservatives who are worried about Obama being too liberal on economic issues. These two points only hold true about the people who not look into any information about these people outside of the party they represent.

I think overall it is too risky to be going after people associated with this administration. He stands to loose more than he can gain in my opinion.

      
m