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Massachusetts Senate Race 2010 Massachusetts Senate Race 2010

01-20-2010 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynton
I also have a somewhat different impression than most of you apparently do. My impression has been that Brown is quite comfortable identifying himself as a true-blue conservative, and perhaps even a "tea-bagger," far different than the way that Romney and other Republicans with some success in Mass would have described themselves.
Scott Brown is More Liberal Than Olympia Snowe, and Now He’s Pivotal, Too:

Quote:
based upon his voting record in the Massachusetts State Senate as well the Votesmart surveys of MA state legislators (include his own from 2002), I estimate that Brown is to the left of the leftmost Republican in the Senate, Olympia Snowe of Maine [typo fixed] and to the right of the rightmost Democrat in the Senate, Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Just as important, Brown stands to become the pivotal member of the Senate—that is, the 60th least liberal (equivalently, the 40th most conservative)–a distinction previously held by Nelson.
01-20-2010 , 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by RedManPlus
Because 2010 will shape everything onwards.
+1 There is a lot riding on 2010 for both Parties.
01-20-2010 , 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted by DVaut1
As I wrote earlier, give it a while. I'm guessing at some point the guys who are here to celebrate the victory of The People's Champion & Fighter For the Standup Working Class will one day consider Brown just another weasel RINO apostate complicit in the Obama Socialist Nazi Communist Agenda.
Or it could be an awakening of sorts that the GOP and Tea Partiers see the benefit of not doing the sort of party line tests and push to the extreme that would have fielded an unwinnable candidate in MA and instead if they come back towards the middle they can win these seats.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Gimik
See, deep down, rjoefish gets it.

One day you'll be able to say it with pride, Joe!

How's union life, btw? What industry were you in again?
Nah, I just know what the answers will be from reading them so many times in the HCR thread :P

Its going well, busy though. I represent workers in the healthcare industry
01-20-2010 , 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedManPlus
If Obama is getting 53% approval in the People's Republic of MA... then you have just made a VERY STRONG case that Obama is Dead Meat
If only we had some other way to gauge what Obama's approval rating is in the rest of the country, instead of just extrapolating "53% in the People's Republic of MA (polling only those who showed up to vote yesterday), must be like 25% everywhere else!"

Maybe we could even run Barack Obama's name against hypothetical GOP nominees and see what Americans think.

Someday someone may consider doing this. Someday.
01-20-2010 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VickreyAuction
I agree. She went negative too early for no good reason, and looked like a goof when Brown took the high road. She was not a good speaker. I have no idea what any of her policies are other than that she's a democrat. She claimed Curt Schilling was a Yankees fan and didn't back down after the radio host called her on it.

Meanwhile, Scott Brown is a liberal republican who was on TV a ton, usually smiling and talking directly into the camera. He had a great sound bite from a live debate that spread on Youtube: "it's the people's seat." He didn't run as a moral-crusader republican. The negative ads that Coakly ran were either not that bad, or not really believable. Deval Patrick was one of Coakley's supporters, but he is not popular in Massachusetts right now.

I don't think she was a horrible candidate. She did win the democratic primary against Mike Capuano, back when everyone assumed that was the same thing as winning the senate seat. She wasn't a good candidate though, and she ran a bad campaign.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJEEQ...eature=related
01-20-2010 , 06:27 PM
Maybe its just me but when I hear someone start ranting about Chicago-Style politics and the Alinsky strategies I'm almost 99% sure they have no clue what those things actually mean.
01-20-2010 , 06:31 PM
Yeah, I saw that post minutes after I wrote the last comment. So, my impression certainly appears counter to Brown's record.

Still, I would not assume quickly that his behavior will stay the same in the US Senate (even though that is what the professor implies). I think it's true that Brown's campaign used a lot of conservative rhetoric. Moreover, it may turn out that he becomes comfortable with the role as liberal-killer, and new GOP star.

I think we'll find out his true ambitions fairly quickly.
01-20-2010 , 06:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynton
Still, I would not assume quickly that his behavior will stay the same in the US Senate (even though that is what the professor implies). I think it's true that Brown's campaign used a lot of conservative rhetoric. Moreover, it may turn out that he becomes comfortable with the role as liberal-killer, and new GOP star..
As for his rhetoric and the campaign, the notion that he was some kind of conservative boiler pate red-meat throwing guy was way overblown, almost certainly trumped by the left to frighten MA Democratic voters to action.

He had offers from Palin and Huckabee come stump for him. He refused those and instead brought in Giuliani.

On the actual issues, he's pro-choice and didn't flip flop on it. Supports the 2006 "RomneyCare" bill that's a close approximation of the ObamaCare bill. A self-admitted strong supporter of METCO, which is a program that buses minority kids from the inner city into suburban schools. Says he personally opposes gay marriage, but opposes federal laws prohibiting gay marriage and thinks it's a states rights issue.

As for him becoming a rising GOP star, that's obviously kind of hard to do from MA and get reelected, especially when the election is against a Democrat with a pulse in a Presidential election year. From 538, re: his role as the new firebrand of the GOP:

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But let’s be realistic. Scott Brown is a politician, not a kamikaze pilot. As David Mayhew argued in 1974, the first and proximate goal of politicians in the United States is to get re-elected. Brown will have a far harder time in 2012 against some credible, seasoned Democrat who won’t get surprised again (or run so badly). Turnout will be higher in that presidential year, meaning the Democratic base will be far more evident at the polls. And the Democrat will get to ride Obama’s coattails, influencing independents in the Democratic direction. And Brown doesn’t have that many years to build up the incumbency advantages that other freshman Senators get. He won’t have brought home as much bacon, and he won’t have risen too far in Congress.

All in all, 2012 will be a very tough election for Brown. So what will the soon-to-be-worried Senator do to enhance his electoral chances? He’ll take the public opinion pulse of his state very, very carefully. And his state is amongst the most liberal in the country. Unless he aims to run for President in 2012 (pro-choice Republicans do well in Republican primaries, right?), his liberal constituency and a desire for re-election will inevitably pull him to the left. Sure, he is far more conservative than Kennedy, Kirk, or Coakley, but that’s immaterial. Brown’s a liberal Republican, and now he’s pivotal.
01-20-2010 , 06:42 PM
Coakley is getting hammered on Hardball.
01-20-2010 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
As for him becoming a rising GOP star, that's obviously kind of hard to do from MA and get reelected, especially when the election is against a Democrat with a pulse in a Presidential election year.
I agree with that part. My point was that GOP stardom and re-election were probably contradictory goals (at least for the next 2-4 years), but that if decided to opt for the former, then he may not be a moderating influence.

I didn't know his actual policies, though, so maybe he won't morph into a fire-breather after all.
01-20-2010 , 06:53 PM
He could morph into a firebreather. Anything's possible. I'm just pointing out what I think is the inverse correlation between his firebreathing and his ability to get re-elected; if he has no real survival instinct and doesn't care that much about being reelected in 2012, if he just wants to be President or run the RNC or get a gig on Fox or sell some books, or some combination of those, then maybe he turns into a firebreather.

The Democratic meme today is that he's the ManPalin, which I think is unfair, partly because the guy actually seems very articulate, is a successful lawyer, and seems perfectly un******ed. At the debate with Coakley, was asked some questions at the debate that he comfortably answered; was engaged the whole time, never looked lost. Comfortably had responses to contextual things, ie, Coakley would say X and then he would respond with something relevant. In the same vein, he gets asked questions in media interviews which he again comfortably answers. So he seems about a million miles ahead of Palin in that respect.

But he is like Palin in that he's a nice looking fellow with a strong jaw and looks good on the teevee, so he could totally parlay politics into a bankable gig as a TV talking head or whatever. Maybe becoming a right wing firebreather is what he's got planned to do that. I have no idea.

So I don't want to make any bets about what he will or won't morph into, just that morphing into a firebrand will have a big negative effect on his ability to get reelected.

Last edited by DVaut1; 01-20-2010 at 07:01 PM.
01-20-2010 , 06:54 PM
When do they quit acting like a few pictures in COSMO was gay porn? I read about ******ed republican talking points but all I've heard on msnbc the last week is tea bagger, naked pictures, tea bagger, naked pictures, truck.
01-20-2010 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1

The Democratic meme today is that he's the ManPalin, which I think is unfair, partly because the guy actually seems very articulate, is a successful lawyer, and seems perfectly un******ed.
This meme has been used on pretty much every R everywhere
01-20-2010 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Losing all
When do they quit acting like a few pictures in COSMO was gay porn?
Just curious about something: do people think that there would have been any different reception for Brown had he been a woman, who posed in an "equally revealing" way?

I put quotations around "equally revealing" because I'm not sure what the equivalent photo would be for a woman, tbh.
01-20-2010 , 07:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Losing all
When do they quit acting like a few pictures in COSMO was gay porn? I read about ******ed republican talking points but all I've heard on msnbc the last week is tea bagger, naked pictures, tea bagger, naked pictures, truck.
This is modern politics imo. One time John Kerry got photographed windsurfing and the photo ran on Drudge from like July-October of 2004, then Bush made an ad, then it was grist for the right wing talk machines about how such a windsurfing effeminate nancy boy couldn't possibly Fight The Terrorists and Win Like Bush Did.
01-20-2010 , 07:11 PM
god, please stop calling the people that favor degenerating our society "progressives".
01-20-2010 , 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Taso
god, please stop calling the people that favor degenerating our society "progressives".
In fairness things can get progressively worse.
01-20-2010 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
A self-admitted strong supporter of METCO, which is a program that buses minority kids from the inner city into suburban schools.
And a man who sent my darling Ayla to a 24k+/year high school.
01-20-2010 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taso
god, please stop calling the people that favor degenerating our society "progressives".
Why aren't you in favorite of PROGRESS?

Spoiler:
Because you want to go back to slavery ldo
01-20-2010 , 07:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynton
Just curious about something: do people think that there would have been any different reception for Brown had he been a woman, who posed in an "equally revealing" way?

I put quotations around "equally revealing" because I'm not sure what the equivalent photo would be for a woman, tbh.
Don't movie stars do stuff like this all the time? I seem to remember Jennifer Aniston on the cover of rolling stone or vanity fair, naked but posed in a way to not show much. I don't think anyone called her a filthy whore. If she runs for office in 20 years I doubt it would be brought up once. Does anyone really care that this guy did some silly, totally innocent photo shoot for cosmo?
01-20-2010 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taso
god, please stop calling the people that favor degenerating our society "progressives".
I'd settle for not using the term "conservative" to describe those who continually undermine our Constitution.
01-20-2010 , 07:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
As I wrote earlier, give it a while. I'm guessing at some point the guys who are here to celebrate the victory of The People's Champion & Fighter For the Standup Working Class will one day consider Brown just another weasel RINO apostate complicit in the Obama Socialist Nazi Communist Agenda.
True for a number of dem senators imo as well.
01-20-2010 , 07:22 PM
idk what conservatism has to do with the constitution. But the idea works, eg, don't call those who favor undermining the constitution (known now as democrats and republicans) "constitutionalists". The double speak needs to stop, for real.
01-20-2010 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
This is modern politics imo. One time John Kerry got photographed windsurfing and the photo ran on Drudge from like July-October of 2004, then Bush made an ad, then it was grist for the right wing talk machines about how such a windsurfing effeminate nancy boy couldn't possibly Fight The Terrorists and Win Like Bush Did.

I remember that photo well, point taken. Still, it wasn't on O'Reiley every night leading up to the election. I don't mind the opposition bringing out something like that, in either case, but I'd swear I've heard about "naked pictures" 20 times on nbc since last night.
01-20-2010 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
This is modern politics imo. One time John Kerry got photographed windsurfing and the photo ran on Drudge from like July-October of 2004, then Bush made an ad, then it was grist for the right wing talk machines about how such a windsurfing effeminate nancy boy couldn't possibly Fight The Terrorists and Win Like Bush Did.
much prefer this one...



"oompa loompa doopity do"

this photo in and of itself should be disqualifying for higher office

      
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