Though we can share an lol at politicians taking the easy political route while not fully understanding the risks link

Just a random question, A reg in the poker room I frequent made a 1k bet at 1:1 with a big Ron Paul guy (also a reg) that the Dow would hit 8000 before it hit 13000. This was in mid-Dec when the Dow was at ~11900, bet goes until the final day close is either above 13000 or below 8000 or one year elapses in which the bet is then a push, who do you think has the edge? IMO, guy who said 13000 has a good deal at 1:1

He has an amazing deal at 1-1. Lol goldbugs.

Yeah, this wasn't an economics failure, it was a finance failure. The Fed people clearly had no idea what was going on with CDS and the whole mess of securitized mortgages, though for what it's worth I had several discussions with (non-Austrian) finance people who did call the real estate collapse causing a wider financial crisis.

By 06 everyone knew the real estate bubble was going to pop, people just disagreed about the effects. Isn't Schiff still trying to sell books about another collapse just around the corner?

lol

wow one mocking anigif and you really show your true colors

I actually laughed at this IRL:

Dave Spence, Missouri Gubernatorial Candidate, Changes College Biography

WTF difference does that make?

What difference does that make? The general premise was correct, he lost some bets on the particulars. Not sure what your point is here.

The general premise wasn't correct, though. There was a downturn. We're now in a recovery.

Outside of the Dow 36000 guys I don't think anybody was saying everything was going to be great forever and we would never see another downturn.

These Austrian cranks you guys love are constantly, constantly making pretty specific predictions about the world ending in the very near future. When it doesn't, they just say oh that maybe they got the timeframe a little wrong. When they said that the global financial collapse would happen "next year" they meant "the year after next year". But it's still totally going to happen next year, and the only way to be prepared is to subscribe to the Ron Paul Survival Report and buy the newest edition of Crashproof by Peter Schiff, also favorite his Youtube channel, etc.

Like, we're now in year 4 or so of this ****. I know right now you think collapse is right around the corner because of Europe and QE3 and Obamacare, but in 2008 you thought collapse was right around the corner because of TARP, the GM bailout, and oil prices. Next year you'll find new variables to plug in.

Ron Paul has been scamming people with his newsletters about this **** for 30 years!

Oh I see. This isn't about anything other than your usual "you like schiff, schiff thinks X, therefore you think X" baloney. Same old same old, with a side order of revisionist "everyone knew there was a bubble in 06".

Do you think collapse is right around the corner?

It's possible but unlikely imo. It can probably be held off for decades.

BTW good job taking some meow chow about schiff and shifting it into a discussion about me when it turned out you overreached.

Home Economics is a BS degree?!

I thought it was a BA?

BAZING!

Fly,

Do you think all Austrians are cranks or just Schiff/Paul/TV Austrians?

Just a heads-up: If you haven't checked the Marine Corps peepee thread lately you are missing out. einbert is off his meds in there.

I don't know about all Austrians....but this guy certainly is.

I haven't read a ton of stuff by Austrians...(or mainstream economists for that matter) but from what I have read and am qualified to comment on, there does seem to be a huge skill gap.

In real econ, I've seen quite competent descriptions of topological fixed point theorems and other intro level math graduate topics. Stuff that must be hopelessly over the head of the writer of the posted article. Maybe he (or that article) is laughed at even by other austrians, in which case it might not be fair to use as a basis for comparison.

he's pretty much on the money you just disagree with him because what he's saying applies to you.

Just the Schiff types. The GMU Mercatus guys are imo wrong about some stuff but they tend to phrase their views more like reasoned disagreement than Peter Schiff's grotesquely oversimplified and dishonest Youtube videos.

I do not think, to put it a different way, that Schiff and Mises.org and posts on this forum represent the current leading edge of Austrian economic thought. I've read blog articles by Austrian econ professors who demontrated more nuance than the Youtube guys, who seem to be stuck in the period immediately after Human Action was published.

A ringing endorsement from the General. How sad for him.

i knew you were getting mad in that thread just from the rapidness of your responses

it was funny to watch

I ain't even mad, tho. More sad that people like you actually believe that crap. Also trying to stay unbanned.

Also, that Morse code jerkoff post is gold, Jerry.