Quote:
Originally Posted by uke_master
I've never understood this, maybe you can explain it. In what specific ways does Hamas assert influence over Saudi Arabia? Egypt makes some sense given the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood allowing things like, say, an Iranian warship in the suez (in 2011 or so I think). But even there it is much more one directional, where the muslim brotherhood taking and losing power in egypt were very important for hamas, but what hamas does is less influential on what happens in Egypt. But for SA, the connection seems even more vague. It is true that SA/Iran/Turkey compete for supremacy in who gets the most influence in the region, but the direction of Hamas "asserting influence" on SA doesn't really occur.
I didn't mean Hamas influencing SA, sorry if that's the impression I gave.
I thought you were more well-versed and I don't mean this to be condescending. It's just my understanding.
The Middle East is a crazy, ****ed up place, especially outside Israel. Shiite vs. Sunni, and Sunni authoritarian vs Sunni Islamist are the biggest battles, both of which dwarf the I-P conflict.
So it's still, to this day, up for grabs (thanks to the Sykes-Picot, et al).
The Islamists are sponsored and supported by Turkey, Qatar, and Iran, all of whom are independently trying to increase influence via Hizballa and the Muslim Brotherhood (including Hamas).
The other side is the authoritarian Arabist governments of Egypt and Saudi. They view the MB and Islamists as a threat to their alliances with the West - which they are.
Keep in mind that these axes are not necessarily co-operative; each of those countries are competing with each other as well, though the imperative is greater as against the other side.
After the Muslim Brotherhood was booted from Egypt, they were essentially marginalized. I'm reading more and more analysis that this whole conflict is really about a re-assertion of their authority over the rest of the Middle East.
It doesn't make sense that Hamas would think they can win this. While certainly genocidal and crazy, they are not stupid. They know that Israel isn't going anywhere in the short-term. To them, it is a temporary Western imperialist presence that will, sooner or later, disappear (hopefully with western help, hence the PR move rebrand the re-establishment of a state for the indigenous Jewish people as a Western presence, to align with anti-colonialists). So this is about the long game of control over the PalArabs against Fateh, with foreign support to win the battle against Saudi and Egypt.
Saudi and Egypt have not only been uncharacteristically silent with respect to criticism of Israel this time around, Egypt has actually harshened its blockade at Rafiah and has been mowing down Hamasniks and other PalArabs who are trying to infiltrate Egypt, which hasn't gotten any Western press. They're actively rooting for Israel, if not publicly.
Why does Hamas play along?
$. Haniya and Mashaal are worth millions and millions from building and taxing the tunnels. I don't know if they anticipated the length to which Israel would go to destroy them and the degree to which it would ignore international criticism this time.
But eventually there will be quiet, and the tunnels will be constructed all over again, which accumulated knowledge.
Kinda rambly, but I'm on my phone.
Last edited by Gamblor; 07-29-2014 at 08:40 PM.