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How does the Left intend to Pay for Anything How does the Left intend to Pay for Anything

12-19-2015 , 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Money2Burn
Wow, that newsletter was terrible. It's publishers clearly don't respect the intelligence of its readership.
yup... it's definitely one of those faux "little guy" groups... sadly, it is not the only one....
12-19-2015 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightFlooosh
When Social Security was first established, the worker to beneficiary ratio was over 15 to 1; today it's closer to 3 to 1, with odds that it will shrink even further over the next few decades. In recent years we have had more money going out than going in. Economically speaking, this shortfall is not sustainable, and without an infusion of money from another source, the Social Security benefit system will face problems within the next 50 or so years. Current predictions indicate that the Social Security trust fund will run out in 2037 if nothing is done

source:http://www.nolo.com/legal-encycloped...ent-32416.html
So two decades to fix a problem that has been fixed numerous times in the past?

Seems achievable to me. What with how social security is always on the verge of problems then it is tweaked so it no longer is. This is by design. It is a feature not a bug.
12-19-2015 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightFlooosh
When Social Security was first established, the worker to beneficiary ratio was over 15 to 1; today it's closer to 3 to 1, with odds that it will shrink even further over the next few decades. In recent years we have had more money going out than going in. Economically speaking, this shortfall is not sustainable, and without an infusion of money from another source, the Social Security benefit system will face problems within the next 50 or so years. Current predictions indicate that the Social Security trust fund will run out in 2037 if nothing is done

source:http://www.nolo.com/legal-encycloped...ent-32416.html
1. lol "Trust fund." That hasn't been true for a while.
2. Your argument that there would be a necessary reduction in benefits 20 years down the road, therefore we should make drastic if not total cuts now is not especially compelling. Why do we have to end Social Security right now when your worst case scenario, a 25% cut in benefits 20 years down the road, solves the problem and is itself a plan for keeping Social Security going?
12-19-2015 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
That is correct.

I'm talling about 2008 when there was QE at massive global scale and nobody could have predicted at the time when it was happening that inflation was not going to happen and currencies did not devalue.
Seems like a really easy prediction actually, and something that wasn't very controversial among mainstream economists.

I'm no economist myself but I understand the basic layman's logic can be boiled down to

if money = debt

then large amounts of default = deflation and the bank losses are magnified in the overall money supply through the same fractional reserve math that works the other way where increased borrowing inflates the money supply

This deflation can be partially offset by central banks increasing the money supply in the public sector through means such as stimulus or QE. Admittedly the right amount can be hard to judge here, but it's not exactly a crapshoot

the only real people who disagreed were the people with a public agenda like the end the fed guys (which are not anywhere near half of economists) or the small government at all cost tea party types and the people who listened to those people's arguments.
12-19-2015 , 02:21 PM
It wasn't an easy prediction. Easy when you look backwards.

The right amount is the key. But nobody knew back in 2009 what that right amount was. It was basically do whatever it takes with QE to make sure the economy doesn't collapse in a few months.

They set aside 700 billion, didn't end up using it all but I'm sure if they needed more they would not have cheapened out at the margins. 700 billion was about 30% of GDP at the time. You telling me QE at 30% GDP = little inflation if you think of it from 2009 shoes.

I don't agree that in 2009 looking forward it was easy call with respects to how much inflation would happen.
12-19-2015 , 03:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jbrochu
But guys Ron Paul assured us private property laws would prevent environmental disasters. There just must not have been any private property laws way back in the early sixties.
The 60's were just a result of years of damage companies and people did to the environment.
12-19-2015 , 03:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBoyBenny
the only real people who disagreed were the people with a public agenda like the end the fed guys (which are not anywhere near half of economists) or the small government at all cost tea party types and the people who listened to those people's arguments.
Yeah, the Ron paul end the fed types end up helping the fed more than anyone. Drowning out serious criticism of fed policy with dollar crash paranoia that was never a remote possibility. Just because your pediatrician didn't give your kid autism with vaccines doesn't mean he knows what he's doing.
12-19-2015 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lilu7
Care to address this OP?

This is correct. Just because I'm right-wing, doesn't mean I think the right-wing has done a good job. The left is not inherently more fiscally responsible in a theoretical sense, but in reality the right has not lived up the ideas they espouse making them even worse than the left imo.
12-19-2015 , 04:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
...Grandma eats and breaths and ****s....
A vibrant woman, Gammy.
12-19-2015 , 04:03 PM
Made a mistake in my post. Meant 30% of tax receipts.
12-19-2015 , 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyLond
Taxes create deadweight losses but while that's a problem, it's a small problem compared to the problem the country already had of too much debt and the inability to repay it.

I mean it's not an issue of how we're going to pay for new programs. We ran out of money for the Federal government $18 trillion ago. Since then, the government has been running on borrowed money. The only question is, when will either
1. People stop lending to us
2. We be unable to service our debt

Interest rates have been very low for a very long time but if they return to even a few percent, the country will either have to default or make extreme cuts to government spending.

Oh but the Fed can just monetize our debt right? Sure you could pay it that way but you'd destroy the currency in the process...and no one would ever lend to us again.

Eventually the Fed will be faced with a decision to raise interest rates which will cause a default, or destroy the currency. This is regardless of what new programs or wars are started. This is already a certainty with our current spending levels and the refusal of politicians to ever cut spending in any meaningful way.
Alllllllll thanks to government and the fed.

I have my popcorn ready when drastic austerity measures are put into place. Going to be fun to watch.

I mean, just look at how these zombies behave on Black Friday to get a flat screen. Just imagine when government employees by the 10's of thousands are instantly out of there non essential job and the EBT cards are shut off.

Gonna be a bloodbath.

Last edited by Pokermentor99; 12-19-2015 at 04:19 PM.
12-19-2015 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightFlooosh
This is correct. Just because I'm right-wing, doesn't mean I think the right-wing has done a good job.
Where are the right wing leaders running the country??? We haven't had right winger constitutionalists running the country or on any majority of congress in over 100 years.

I hope you aren't going to tell me Bush was a right winger like our great founding fathers and early presidents were..... Are you?

Right wingers in Washington are extinct and have been for a looooong time .
12-19-2015 , 04:17 PM
Dude, you scam rubes with medical coupons for a living
12-19-2015 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LetsGambool
Dude, you scam rubes with medical coupons for a living
???

Like the government scams the unwashed masses and poor with currency inflation and interest rate manipulation to benefit the politically well connected and Wall Street?

Not sure why you have a problem with whoever you have a problem with above. If you are in fact a big government supporter.
12-19-2015 , 04:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
It wasn't an easy prediction. Easy when you look backwards.

The right amount is the key. But nobody knew back in 2009 what that right amount was. It was basically do whatever it takes with QE to make sure the economy doesn't collapse in a few months.

They set aside 700 billion, didn't end up using it all but I'm sure if they needed more they would not have cheapened out at the margins. 700 billion was about 30% of GDP at the time. You telling me QE at 30% GDP = little inflation if you think of it from 2009 shoes.

I don't agree that in 2009 looking forward it was easy call with respects to how much inflation would happen.
People are often way too over-confident about what they know (or as you suggest are just laughing), particularly on stuff like this. We still don't now how it will play out and there was never only one possibility.

But that doesn't mean it wasn't an easy decision - the good thing to do was to avoid the mess in the first place but once the **** hit the fan then what possible alternative to QE or something along those lines was there? All possible options sucked and risked consequences in the future because the underlying damage had already been done.

Any real difference between left and right on this issue is about regulation and economic management to avoid future problems.
12-19-2015 , 04:50 PM
Long-term everything will probably be fine because of innovation making peoples lives easier, creating abundance in essential resources, businesses becoming more efficient etc

If this didn't happen and the world looks largely the same in 20-25 years as it does right now, then we could begin to have problems.

Factoring the effects globalization into this is very challenging as well.
12-19-2015 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokeraddict
I know several people that live in California and keep a condo/house in Nevada and declare that to be their residence to avoid CA state income taxes. I suspect that is a widespread occurrence.
So you know people who cheat on their taxes, and suspect that there is widespread cheating? Cool story bro. Maybe that works for some superrich living purely on investments. Lots of rich people have lots of income specifically from California sources so this just isn't gonna work for them.
12-19-2015 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightFlooosh
When Social Security was first established, the worker to beneficiary ratio was over 15 to 1; today it's closer to 3 to 1, with odds that it will shrink even further over the next few decades. In recent years we have had more money going out than going in. Economically speaking, this shortfall is not sustainable, and without an infusion of money from another source, the Social Security benefit system will face problems within the next 50 or so years. Current predictions indicate that the Social Security trust fund will run out in 2037 if nothing is done

source:http://www.nolo.com/legal-encycloped...ent-32416.html
Did you miss where I said just increase immigration?
12-19-2015 , 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotR
So you know people who cheat on their taxes, and suspect that there is widespread cheating? Cool story bro. Maybe that works for some superrich living purely on investments. Lots of rich people have lots of income specifically from California sources so this just isn't gonna work for them.
Well, to be fair, the people he "knows" who do this don't exist. So it doesn't really "work for them", either.
12-19-2015 , 05:37 PM
I'm sure the half dozen people who actually live in CA (pop. 39 million) but claim to live in their weekend Tahoe house in NV (pop. 3 million) are just absolutely wreaking havoc on the Bay Area's tax rolls.
12-19-2015 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by raradevils
The 60's were just a result of years of damage companies and people did to the environment.
Ya my point was that private property laws were not protecting the environment back then. So I'm not sure why Ron Paul and his ilk would think they would in the future should we abolished the EPA.
12-19-2015 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightFlooosh
I would agree QE has been moderately successful to this point. The real test is the end-game. Basically the question is how much of a bubble is there; as the massive influx of money has come into the economy it would seem that QE has distorted the true value of stocks and other securities (particularly in the tech sector). The consensus is that we should go through some form of economic down-turn, but to what degree is the scary part. If it is mild, that will be awesome. Some are arguing it could be catastrophic, but that is likely an exaggeration.
Lol QE successful? The problem with QE is that when you start doing it you can't stop! QE4 is going to be bigger than 1 2 and 3 combined. This is supposed to be the end of the recovery and we are already worse off now than before the 2008 collapse. The patient needs rehab, not more drugs, or he will crash harder.

Sorry, but you are way off if you think there is a good chance that this is going to be some mild downturn. It is going to be really really bad.

And the sick part is if it wasn't for all these QE's and manipulated low interest rates. The economy wouldn't have had anywhere near the severe downturn that we are going to have as a result of all the fed and government manipulation and QE. We would have been well past a REAL recovery already. Instead we have a huge bubble and no real recovery, and a really bad downturn coming.

It's the drugs that is killing us... Not the illness.
12-19-2015 , 06:13 PM
What huge bubble?
12-19-2015 , 06:19 PM
Of course there is distorted true value of stocks. This stock market bubble the last 7 years fueled by the fed is just paper profits that is going to collapse. There's no real wealth being created to justify the increase in the stock market. Just like there was no real wealth being created before the 08 collapse, just paper profits that got erased. And it is going to happen again but even bigger this time.
12-19-2015 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jbrochu
What huge bubble?
Insert meme of someone glaring at you in disbelief.

      
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