And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney - Page 693 - Politics and Economics

Two Plus Two Forums Other Topics Politics

And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney

...

Page 693 of 1341

First

193 493 593 643 673 683 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 703 713 743 793 893 1193

Last

Page 693 of 1341

First

193 493 593 643 673 683 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 703 713 743 793 893 1193

Last

09-27-2012 , 12:20 PM

#17301

Barcalounger

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 2,456

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ce1ska

Samuel L. Jackson: Wake the **** Up

nice

09-27-2012 , 12:21 PM

#17302

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

So 47%-gate is confirmed easiest gaffe ever?

I like these updates.

09-27-2012 , 12:21 PM

#17303

Alan C. Lawhon

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 2,380

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

Obama, for the second time this cycle, is running an ad that is just Mitt being Mitt:

Fly:

This particular Obama ad was just being discussed on MSNBC. The commentator noted how Team Obama relentlessly pushed the ads about Mitt Romney and Bain Capital because those ads resonated with focus groups - and they were very effective. No doubt President Obama's advisors, including David Axelrod and David Plouffe, tested this ad on focus groups and got a very strong reaction. The commentator predicted we'll probably see ads with some variation of Mitt Romney and his "47 percent" remarks from here to election day. (When late night comedians are lampooning a candidate with his own words, you know his opponent has struck gold.)

The famous (or infamous) "Daisy ad" which sank Barry Goldwater in 1964 aired only once - on the Sunday night before the election. Considering the "explosive" nature of that ad, once was enough. Mitt Romney's 47 percent remarks will probably go down in the history of Presidential politics as a close second to the Daisy ad - a piece of video and audio so toxic that it literally destroyed a candidates viability.

09-27-2012 , 12:21 PM

#17304

Riverman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 73,129

That ad isnt at all misleading, its just mitt mitting. WOAT candidate.

09-27-2012 , 12:22 PM

#17305

irunnotgood

journeyman

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 273

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWookie

Robocalling cell phones is illegal, IIRC

can they robocall Obamaphones?

09-27-2012 , 12:23 PM

#17306

ogallalabob

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 2,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by [Phill]

1, that just isnt true, some states have been actively closing DMVs in black areas

2, even if it is true it is completely separate to the question of how easily they can get an ID and that is the key problem with the way these laws were carried through

3, the people who are being targeted are overwhelmingly minorities and it is disproportionally effecting non-Republicans, that is just a proven fact

Some states but the attacks are against all states. And no it is not a proven fact that all or any states have targeted non-republicans. They challenged the Indiana law and could not show this and in fact a liberal Judge wrote an opinion saying the law did not.

09-27-2012 , 12:23 PM

#17307

Case Closed

self-banned

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 19,112

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ce1ska

Samuel L. Jackson: Wake the **** Up

Not bad imo.

09-27-2012 , 12:24 PM

#17308

rjoefish

Got Out the Vote

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 31,086

I read that as 'Obamaphobes' lol

09-27-2012 , 12:24 PM

#17309

YB2009

dats ruff

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 7,410

Pretty good read here, not sure if it was posted any where yet. I enjoyed it particularly because I am here to learn. One aspect I was looking for earlier today was to get a clear understanding of the business end of things on Romney for someone like me, with no real understanding yet of how it all works; beyond the sound bites of the tv, what I buy on my whims, and cocoon of so far existence. And ya know, told slow and colorful enough to keep the attention.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...pital-20120829

09-27-2012 , 12:25 PM

#17310

Wynton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 15,189

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan C. Lawhon

The famous (or infamous) "Daisy ad" which sank Barry Goldwater in 1964 aired only once - on the Sunday night before the election. Considering the "explosive" nature of that ad, once was enough.

I very much doubt there is evidence that the Daisy ad "sank" Goldwater, even though it is so well-known. IIRC, Johnson had a large lead in that race all along. And that ad probably ran just once because there was a lot of blowback.

09-27-2012 , 12:29 PM

#17311

M2d

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,299

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wynton

I believe that the current polls represent a worst case scenario for him.

as long as there's at least one more microphone for him to step up to, Romney will never reach his worst case scenario

Last edited by M2d; 09-27-2012 at 12:40 PM.

09-27-2012 , 12:30 PM

#17312

cres

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 10,331

How RMoney is explaining his tax cuts now are not just lol, but idiotic.

I'm going to lower your rates, but at the same time lower your deductions, so don't be expecting to pay lower taxes, You got that part, right?

Maybe in a boardroom pitch, where the only item on the table is the internal rate of return the current pitch will yield, this could possibly work. But to obfuscate his parties main plank, is, more lol

09-27-2012 , 12:32 PM

#17313

Wynton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 15,189

Nate Cohn speculates that Obama is near his ceiling. That conclusion seems intuitively right to me, but I really don't understand his reasoning.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/...ar-his-ceiling

Quote:

Obama’s lead in the battleground states is getting large enough that the margin might not accurately represent his advantage. The remaining undecided voters are probably latent Romney supporters—voters who tend to vote for Republican candidates, disapprove of the president’s performance, but dislike Romney. Should they turnout and cast a ballot in the presidential race on Election Day, they’re probably not going to vote to reelect the president.

Obama might not be quite at his ceiling nationally, but Romney still appears to have more growth potential. Most polls find Romney down into the mid-to-lower forties, a tally even beneath McCain's 46 percent from 2008. The polls tell us that Obama's disapproval rating is somewhere around 47 percent nationally, so it's fair to infer that many of the undecided voters disapprove of the president's performance. Most of these voters will eventually flock to Romney's side, perhaps as soon as after the first presidential debate.

Similarly, Quinnipiac found Obama's approval rating near 50-47 in Ohio and Florida. The voters who are ambivalent about the president's performance but currently support him appear to doubt Romney’s fitness for the presidency: they’re not sure about whether he can restore the economy, and they don't even think he cares about people like them. This problem even extends to voters who disapprove of the president's performance, but who just aren’t convinced by Romney's pitch.

At the same time, Obama’s 50-47 approval/disapproval isn’t far off of the national numbers, which might suggest that the poll is more accurate than the big margin suggets. The apparent difference between the state and national numbers could be that Team Obama has succeeded in disqualifying the Republican challenger in the battleground states. Reading a bit into correlations, you might think that Romney's big problem is the perception that he doesn't understand the problems of voters. About 57 percent of voters didn’t believe that Romney cared about people like them, a number that happens to match-up pretty well with Romney’s 43 percent of the vote.
I'm about to oversimplify things (these categories aren't divided cleanly, as I've depicted below), but you can envision the electorate breaking down accordingly:

-43 percent disapproves of Obama, thinks Romney understands them, and are voting for Romney;
-4 percent disapproves of Obama, doesn’t think Romney cares about them and are consequently are undecided;
-3 percent don’t think Romney understands them, are ambivalent Obama’s performance, and like the president personally. They’re currently voting for Obama;
-50 percent approve of Obama’s performance, don’t think Romney understands them, and they’re also voting for Obama.

My suspicion is that Romney is going to win over the 4 percent who disapprove of Obama's performance by Election Day, especially since history tells us that a major party Republican will struggle to fall far beneath 47 percent in any of these battleground states. So in a sense, these polls don't suggest that Obama's going to win Florida by 9 points or Ohio by 10--53 percent is probably near his ceiling in these states. But they do suggest he is very well positioned heading into the heart of the campaign.

I'm assuming I'm misreading something because, as far as I can tell, he's just asserting that the undecideds are likely to go to Romney, without really offering any reasoning.

Again, the overall conclusion still seems fair to me, though.

09-27-2012 , 12:35 PM

#17314

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal...itics-of-3.php

09-27-2012 , 12:38 PM

#17315

CharlieDontSurf

Blessed by Pope

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 14,811

Seems like Europe imploding or unemployment rate jumping a bunch +.1 or .2 over the each of the next two months is RMoney's last hope unless Obama commits massive error/gets wafflecrushed in debate

09-27-2012 , 12:42 PM

#17316

Wynton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 15,189

Quote:

Originally Posted by M2d

as long as there's at least one more microphone for him to step up to, Romney will never reach his worst cast scenario

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that Romney will refrain from make any future comments that insult half the population.

(You may want to bookmark this post just in case I'm wrong.)

09-27-2012 , 12:48 PM

#17317

[Phill]

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 52,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWookie

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal...itics-of-3.php

Lol at the positioning of Fosters and Stella.

09-27-2012 , 12:53 PM

#17318

rjoefish

Got Out the Vote

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 31,086

Fosters: Australian for nonpartisan.

09-27-2012 , 12:55 PM

#17319

miajag

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 17,328

Quote:

Originally Posted by ogallalabob

But this has not been shown. You confuse the issue of not currently having an id with the ability to get an id. There is no showing that minorities have any tougher time in getting id's then white people.

THIS IS WHAT CONSERVATIVES ACTUALLY BELIEVE

09-27-2012 , 12:57 PM

#17320

zikzak

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 22,198

Quote:

Originally Posted by [Phill]

Lol at the positioning of Fosters and Stella.

Those beers don't have hooligan associations on this side of the pond. Stella is marketed as an upscale brew.

09-27-2012 , 12:57 PM

#17321

nyc999

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 18,688

Seems odd a New England craft beer would be Republican

09-27-2012 , 12:58 PM

#17322

Wynton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 15,189

Finally, a fresh idea how Romney could still win.

How Hugo Chavez can help Mitt Romney win the election

The article is serious, by the way.

09-27-2012 , 01:02 PM

#17323

swinginglory

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,508

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan C. Lawhon

The 47% speaks:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=tpAOwJvTOio

09-27-2012 , 01:04 PM

#17324

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

Not surprising: the almost complete absence of anything "light" on the left.
Quite surprising: Blue Moon, Sam Adams. Also that Dos Equis isn't further left.