2k. i have 1900 to win 1k and 2k to win the other 1k. oh it's a lock for sure and i never say that until w/e i bet on is over. free money for us wil.

Obama up to 85% to win in my model.

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll are all awesome.

Also my graph looks like Nate's

Wish I could be as optimistic as you. I especially dislike the way the media has been sensationalizing the current protests in Egypt, etc. Yeah, I know what conventional wisdom says about incumbents with these sorts of things, and I know how badly Mittens screwed up. I still dislike the fear mongering.

I don't think I'll really be comfortable until OH, FL or VA flips blue on election night.

really really happy that he is up by 7 in ohio.

unless the president does something crazy like punch mitt in the face during the debates he is a shoe in.

Mostly likely win for Romney


Most likely win for Obama

he's too cool for that, but romney might try to hold him down and shave his head

Flip NC red and I believe this.

I actually like the NC outcome. Remember if Obama wins every toss-up state it mean's he's doing well and some other close states (no one is polling IN so NC is the only close Romney state we've got) are liable to flip.

I live in NC. I'll be pretty shocked if NC goes for Obama again given the current climate in the state. UE is approaching 10%, the republican candidate for governor is going to win in a landslide, republicans have massive majority in both state chambers, etc. That said I'm going out to knock on door Saturday, maybe that will turn the tide.

Your constant posting about your bets never gets uninteresting.

I've only got Obama down 1.0 in NC at the moment. You might be able to make a difference

omg im not going to be able to sleep tonight after reading this. go obama! and win me some MONEY$$$$

I started moving some of my election modeling stuff into a blog.

http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/

It contains: regular updates, detail on how I go from state outcomes to simulating a national outcome, and is obviously way better than schmucky old fivethirtyeight.

bookmarked

WTF???

US embassies being stormed, ambassador being murdered absolutely unnewsworthy.

Sorry Obama hasn't cleaned up the mess fast enough but it looks like we're on the right track to me.


The republican argument in a nutshell:
Hey guys, we drove drunk, puked in the car and drove it off a cliff. Obama hasn't cleaned up our mess fast enough, so give us the keys back.

What boggles my mind is that people want to go back to those policies. Why? What is the purpose? Did it help us 4 years ago? It was god-awful and downright scary what was happening.

What would make people think Republican policies are GOOD for the economy? After that last run I seriously don't think I would ever trust those nutjobs to run the country again. The funny part is the whole "Obama added XXX trillion to the debt!" Yeah, because it had to be done to fix what the **** you guys ****ed up.

It's like blaming your wife for spending too much money when she had to spend $2000 on a new garage door when you got drunk and drove your car through it. What the ****?

What was the average unemployment during the Bush years?

http://washingtonexaminer.com/romney...rticle/2507749

Romney said, "It's disgraceful that the Obama administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks."

Afterward the radicals had breached the walls, torn down the American flag and replaced it with an Islamist banner, the embassy sent out a tweet (now deleted), which said: "This morning's condemnation (issued before protest began) still stands. As does our condemnation of unjustified breach of the Embassy."

So after the initial statement of apology for the video, there were two statements in which the Obama administration reacted apologetically to the attacks in Libya and Egypt. When Romney took to the microphone in Florida, he was careful to say that the administration "was wrong to stand by" its original pre-attack apology.

Is it really better out there after 6t in spending. Now they need QE3 to try and pump the economy? What boggles my mind is that intelligent people on this forum support failed policies. We are now at a high mark. We are headed for a deeper and longer recession. I feel for all those people in their 20's that graduated college with huge debt and no job prospects. We are leaning more towards a France type economy where 14% unemployment is the norm.

http://reason.com/archives/2012/09/1...-the-recession

Does all of the (transparently insincere) outrage about the embassy's statement hinge on the ambiguity of 'apology' and 'apologetic statements'?

Yes, Obama and his administration’s first response was to apologize not condemn the actions.

I don't think it's ambiguous at all. It's quite clear that the embassy's statement wasn't an apology or expression of sympathy for the attackers. The outrage is based on a flat-out lie that conservatives believe they can get away with thanks to the echo-chamber of right-wing media outlets.