And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney - Page 1040 - Politics and Economics

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And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney

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10-24-2012 , 03:14 PM

#25976

mrmarky

adept

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,072

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczyn...r-his-flip-flo

and those of you who kill me for Romney's flip flops. also you can add G-Bay on this as well.

10-24-2012 , 03:16 PM

#25977

Wynton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 15,189

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

I doubt it's Trump.

Are you purposely going for understatement here for effect? Does anyone really believe that Trump's machinations were the cause?

If so, that is like the best argument in the world for opening an intrade account.

10-24-2012 , 03:16 PM

#25978

drugsarebad

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,692

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

I doubt it's Trump. I speculated yesterday that the reason for the atrophy in Obama's price over the past week was that bettors *weren't* seeing movement in Obama's direction they perhaps expected. Bettors may have been expecting the Romney movement from after the 1st debate to fade fast and it didn't.

Now, Romney has gone from +7 to +3 on Gallup, which means some good days for Romney from a week ago are rolling out. Gallup is having a big effect on the averages on RCP everyone loves. So maybe people are seeing some of that movement. If Gallup comes back to the mean, the dichotomy between the state polls and the national polls isn't really significant anymore, and then you're left with Obama probably (you can never really know, of course) having something like a very small lead, which is what Pollster and 538 (weighting the polls and smooting out some of the effects of Gallup's poll) have sort of maintained all along.

And now the flipside is also becoming true: if the markets were squeamish about lack of movement to Obama in the polls in the last week or two, the same lack of movement to Romney in key states has to be weighing more heavily. Obama has a seemingly stable lead in OH, NV, WI. That's 270+ for Obama if he gets those states. The election is already underway. Romney is running out of time and planned major events to change anything at this point. Romney hasn't really led in a single poll in any of those states.

Maybe this is all wrong. But the long and the short of it: sometimes stuff that isn't happening is just as important as stuff that is. The market isn't always responding to some random fluffly newsworthy like Trump or Libya or Glorida Alldred or whatever.

If you had a day like today on Nov 5th, where it was like SUSA OH O+3, Ras NV O+2, Ras OH tie -- neither candidate going to WI, no polls showing Romney leading in WI, etc. -- you'd have to think Obama is at least a small favorite. -150? -185? I don't know exactly how to price that but Intrade's number isn't far off what you're seeing in the polls today.

Market responds to DVaut post, Obama up from 57.8 to 57.9 on Intrade

10-24-2012 , 03:19 PM

#25979

Roger Clemens

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Quote:

Originally Posted by drugsarebad

Market responds to DVaut post, Obama up from 57.8 to 57.9 on Intrade

And then mine! Back to 57.8

10-24-2012 , 03:20 PM

#25980

Cuban B

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,765

Speaking of oil...
We'll Go 100% Renewable Energy, Says ... Saudi Arabia

Quote:

Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud, one of Saudi Arabia’s top spokesmen, has confirmed that Saudi Arabia has plans to generate 100 percent of its power from renewable sources and low-carbon forms of energy.

Currently Saudi Arabia produces nearly all of its energy from fossil fuels, with two-thirds coming from oil and the rest from natural gas.

The kingdom is exploring its renewable-energy options, of which solar energy is expected to play a large part. It has also signed a memorandum of understanding with Argentina to develop nuclear power.

10-24-2012 , 03:20 PM

#25981

DVaut1

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 30,005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

Using wagering as a model, except Nevada, Romney has been improving in all of the swing states. And Florida is about as close to [x] Romney as it is going to get.

But you're comparing 10/19-10/24 at the books. I think everyone has conceded Romney's chances improved during that period. Quote my last post:

Quote:

I speculated yesterday that the reason for the atrophy in Obama's price over the past week was that bettors *weren't* seeing movement in Obama's direction they perhaps expected. Bettors may have been expecting the Romney movement from after the 1st debate to fade fast and it didn't.

We're trying to figure out Intrade in the last 24 hours, which I'm chalking up to basically a pretty good day of polling for Obama + one less day on the calendar. Not Trump, Benghazi, divorce papers, blah blah meow chow.

10-24-2012 , 03:22 PM

#25982

Roger Clemens

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

But you're comparing 10/19-10/24 at the books. I think everyone has conceded Romney's chances improved during that period. Quote my last post:

We're trying to figure out Intrade in the last 24 hours, which I'm chalking up to basically a pretty good day of polling for Obama + one less day on the calendar.

Got it. I did quote Pinnacle yesterday and today, and Romney has improved over that time.

I explained intrade is probably experiencing arb action, which makes perfect sense.

And I was talking about Romney improvement from Monday to today, not from last week.

10-24-2012 , 03:24 PM

#25983

Ineedaride2

Politics Court Jester

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 25,080

Speaking of Florida billboards, some idiots put up pro-life billboards every half mile for about a hundred miles on I-75 in north Florida. One here or there - fine. Whatever. 300? Madness.

10-24-2012 , 03:30 PM

#25984

DVaut1

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 30,005

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ineedaride2

Speaking of Florida billboards, some idiots put up pro-life billboards every half mile for about a hundred miles on I-75 in north Florida. One here or there - fine. Whatever. 300? Madness.

I'm always surprised when I drive out in the sticks how many billboards there are demanding I repent for my sins and stuff. I mean when I'm driving is like that one part of my day when I'm not egregiously offending Jesus! I'm not drunk, I can't masturbate to porn, I'm not gambling. Christians gotta find a way to get their billboards on my vodka bottle or something. I'm a ****ing saint when I'm driving.

10-24-2012 , 03:31 PM

#25985

rjoefish

Got Out the Vote

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 31,086

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

Maybe because he is bowing to the Sheik?

Regardless, the billboard is in Florida and it's pretty much game over there.

I reaaaaaaaaaally hope the Romney campaign thinks this is actually true. Their ground game here is lolbad.

10-24-2012 , 03:31 PM

#25986

Roger Clemens

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vecernicek

??

Clemens, do you think Bush submitted his college records?

No, I don't think he did. The same goes for any president. Why not independently investigate the qualifications of the candidates? What is the big deal?

(I am aware he got into a legal fight regarding his military service record, and I believe he had to bring to light records that he probably preferred not to.)

10-24-2012 , 03:33 PM

#25987

adios

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 22,540

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

I tried making a post about election arbour opportunities yesterday but I was on the bus. Too much of a pain.

10-24-2012 , 03:33 PM

#25988

big gilute

banned

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,193

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Rata

Looks like Barry is having a pretty good polling day. anatta might even go for a jog, get some fresh air.

lol

10-24-2012 , 03:33 PM

#25989

Roger Clemens

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjoefish

I reaaaaaaaaaally hope the Romney campaign thinks this is actually true. Their ground game here is lolbad.

I'm basing that on what I hear and the betting markets. Obama looks real bad there now, but if you got more info I'm all ears (we can all use some easy cash).

10-24-2012 , 03:34 PM

#25990

Vecernicek

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,781

OK, RC, I think I misunderstood your post. I thought you were suggesting that Obama *in particular* should be required to submit his transcripts. My bad.

10-24-2012 , 03:37 PM

#25991

Ineedaride2

Politics Court Jester

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 25,080

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

Around here you can be driving in the woods 10 miles from civilization, and suddenly there will be 3 big white signs nailed to separate pine trees reading

JESUS.

IS.

COMING.

I'm normally not scared of Jesus, but I got a little spooked driving out there by myself.

10-24-2012 , 03:43 PM

#25992

rjoefish

Got Out the Vote

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 31,086

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

I'm basing that on what I hear and the betting markets. Obama looks real bad there now, but if you got more info I'm all ears (we can all use some easy cash).

They're relying on phone calls (robocalls even) for most of their work and are still in the ID phase of their canvassing.

10-24-2012 , 03:45 PM

#25993

Vecernicek

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,781

Also, anyone caught posting Intrade numbers within 3 hours of the last poster to do it should get temp-banned.

10-24-2012 , 03:48 PM

#25994

Brons

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 6,565

**** me. I finally decided to deposit a few hundred bucks on intrade to gamble on Obama at these odds. They even verified my proof of ID within a few minutes. But after reading some more I noticed that they charge lol$20 for withdrawing + unkown fees from their bank. So after adding everything up ($20 intrade free + $30 bank fees + EUR>USD>EUR conversion + $5 subscription fee) I'm not sure how this bet can +EV without depositing a few grand. Even ignoring the fact that these odds might disappear while my money is in transit.

Anyone up for a bet of a few hundred dollars at intrade's price? Probably not :/

10-24-2012 , 03:59 PM

#25995

big gilute

banned

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,193

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

Maybe because he is bowing to the Sheik?

Regardless, the billboard is in Florida and it's pretty much game over there.

you know who it's pretty much game over for ? MITT ROMNEY i love how you guys are a -200 dog and you think you are sitting pretty. you bet baseball ever? -200 is a pretty big ****ing dog dude, you can wish all you want but this lying pos romney has and uphill climb on gravel with no shoes on to win this thing.

Last edited by MrWookie; 10-24-2012 at 04:09 PM.

10-24-2012 , 04:00 PM

#25996

whickerda

adept

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,066

Quote:

Originally Posted by champstark

AMERICA #1
JESUS #1

is all you need to know to explain the thought process of these idiots

Well yes, there is this to consider.

10-24-2012 , 04:04 PM

#25997

Roger Clemens

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Quote:

Originally Posted by big gilute

I try to leave the emotions out of this.. I recognize Obama is favored, and he will probably win. I don't need to attack people and their beliefs to prove a point. I post factual statements and reasonable beliefs that people can agree with or disagree with. If you want any respect from me, how about you make the discussion civil and respectful. Thanks.

Last edited by MrWookie; 10-24-2012 at 04:10 PM.

10-24-2012 , 04:16 PM

#25998

cres

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 10,331

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turn Prophet

Insult to Larry Flynt IMO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ineedaride2

NSFW its Woody Harrelson playing Larry Flint

and yes, he can't be insulted or in a class with trump. Even Larry can't get that low

10-24-2012 , 04:17 PM

#25999

TalkingDonkey

RIZZAHHHHHH

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 17,137

OH polls today: O+2 (ras), O+2 (Lake Research), O+3 (SUSA), O+5 (Time)

10-24-2012 , 04:20 PM

#26000

Wynton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 15,189

Few tidbits regarding Ohio and internal polling.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...c314_blog.html

Quote:

What about undecided voters breaking towards Romney? Obama officials tell Halperin they don’t believe they’ll break towards the challenger as decisively as he needs them to, if Obama holds small leads in the key battlegrounds. This echoes what David Plouffe argued to me last month. The Obama campaign conducts very intensive research into who these voters are and what motivates them, and Obama advisers remain convinced they understand these voters better than the Romney team does. And Halperin notes that Bill Clinton will be heavily deployed in the final stretch. Dems think Clinton is seen by swing voters as a kind of “referee” figure on the economy: Hence the new Obama campaign ad starring Clinton telling voters that Obama is right about the economy and that Republicans are wrong about it again, just as they were when Clinton was president.

Meanwhile, early voting is underway, and as Molly Ball reports, more Dems than Republicans have voted in Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada. In Ohio, more votes have been cast from areas that Obama won last time than from Republican ones. Also important: The Obama team believes the early voting foreshadows a diverse electorate. Campaign calculations show that two thirds of those who have voted early are women, young voters or minorities, and that voter registration has gone up the most among Latinos and African Americans.

My colleague Jennifer Rubin reports that Republican internal polling puts Ohio at anywhere from two points up for Obama to two points up for Romney. I can’t vouch for that, but (perhaps not surprisingly) it is different from what Dem internal polls are finding. One Democrat familiar with polling conducted last weekend puts Obama up three points in the state; another poll I’m told about, which was taken at the same time, puts him up five. That’s before Monday’s debate.

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