lol are you considering yourself part of this broader group that "understand economics?"

If so, for some reason I chuckle at the fact that daveT's and Krugman's vote cancel each other out in his informal straw poll.

Jesus, dude. That's one of my worst fears, but I look apon paralytics with upmost admiration.

When there is massive inflation, and we have a bubble, that bubble will pop. People were taking loans under government-backed HUD programs and many people flipped houses while the prices are increasing 5fold in 5 years. Even the people in the business knew this was not siustainable. I take you don't know why the dot-com bubble bursted either? The economy is not going to recover for a looooong time, I shouldn't have to tell you why.

Seriously, Dave, you dont' have a finance background, do you?

And "bursted" isn't a word.

Sorry, I couldn't let that one go.

First of all, i do not give a crap if our president is black or not. America is not a special country because of different ethnicities that is has. Character is the only thing that matters...not skin color. There are black people I like, and there are black people I don't like. There is an Asian kid I play poker with, the kid is hilarious...there is another asian dude I know that I get hard at the thought of knocking his teeth out. There are white dudes I like and dislike, and so on.

I don't agree with almost anything you say, but at least you are in tune with **** and can at least argue to a degree...and the fact that you bring color up as a way of making a point is just senseless and you know it. And people like you who bring up race are really just making sure race stays an issue, whether or not you are a racist person which I don't think you are.

Bill Clinton, I did not agree with much of his policies at all... but he was definitely one of the most expert and savvy politicians anyone could name....yet he left a legacy behind full of frustration because the dude had no character. I know Clinton is white, and doesn't completely draw a legit parrellel to what I am trying to say, but you get my point.

Really the stimulus worked? Well I mean ya I guess sure...you can make an argument it worked... I mean if you want to spend 400k per job in the name of having some temp job, ya then sure, it worked...it "created" a job at the cost of 400k per taxpayer. And I can pay someone 75 thousand dollars to paint my bedroom, does that make it economically efficient? I am about to pay my taxes... good to know that I will be subsidizing some union high school dropout to fix a crack in the road... that my children can pay off their entire working lives as a slave to the state.

You do know that MARKETS create growth and not LABOR, right? If I pay you 100 bucks to come over and teabag me... how does that create economic growth? You are just circulating old money, and not creating new money through investment.

Don't worries tho... it will only take about 10 years to realize the consequences of this joke, unlike something like global warming which will take 1000 years or so to disprove.

I'm not bringing up race or sex as my argument. I'm making a point that they are very remarkable people, yet some talk about them like they are some clowns off the street. They aren't, not in the least bit. People talk about Obama like he's Dan Quayle, which is just stupid. He's borderline brilliant, and if you can't admit that, then something is wrong with you. (Not meaning YOU, I mean, in general)


And, to prove or disprove the stimulus worked is tough either way. In general, I'd err on the side of it working, as if you looked at how things were BEFORE the stimulus package and afterwards, things looked a lot more peachy afterwards. Does this prove it worked? No, not really, but it makes a better argument than it DIDN'T work because you can come up with a few clever examples of things that don't work.

And, your definition and example of "growth" isn't exactly accurate. I know what you are trying to say, and yes you are correct, but the stimulus, as I've said before, was partly to buy time/stabilize things. FEAR chokes markets. Like I said earlier, the stimulus, mostly, is like taking a bucket and taking water from the deep end of a pool and dumping it in the shallow end.

Don't think its just so easy to say "it didn't work".

Apparently you do. Unfortunately, I have met far more people who busted money via financial corporations than I care to think of. Don't get me wrong, there are great financial advisors, but they are far and few between, and they most certainly did not work at Meryll Lynch and other places of that sort. My opinion is that if you really need other people's money to invest while you collect 200k/year, you're far too risk adverse for my tastes, especially since you present yourself as an expert. Why should I hand my money over to someone who doesn't have the balls to earn his own fortune? It's not without reason that many financial types have a reputation lower than an ambulance chaser.

I kind of agree/disagree on the stimulus subject. No doubt that the bailout worked, but to say that something saved or created jobs is fairly abysmal. Sadly, there was a ton of wasted money out of the stimulus, and cnn exposed several projects within a week. Yes, it saved teaching jobs, but the waste really out-did the benifits. From a purely mathematical point, it was definitely a fail.

awwkkkwarddd..

I don't come off as an expert, but I somewhat do know what I'm talking about. I try not to talk out of my ass.

I'm not a financial advisor, and I don't claim to be. I also dislike financial advisors.

I also called the absolute bottom of the recession last year as the market went. I bought in on march 23rd of 2009, and I doubled me and my fiancee's retirement accounts, pushing us above 100k last year.

I think I have just a tiny bit of background in this. Really. I'm not here to try to impress anyone, but some of the arguments that are thrown around in this discussion are downright silly, and I want to bring them to light with a bit of reason and logic.

Sorry, didn't mean it to be awkward. I was just trying to prove a point, and didn't want someone to just assume they knew my background or what type of person I was.

Just had to lay it out there.

I was saying that you telling the paralyzed guy that he doesn't know anything about the real world was the 'awkward' part.

Wil, I shouldn't have went on the personal attack. I don't want to be against this, but I think that our concerns are well-founded. I only present evidence and that's it. No matter, we should all be able to see where our own and each others argument are weak, and expose and expect to be exposed. Nothing personal.

edit: meh, why bother.

Like I said, I'm not exactly saying it didn't work....

If I played in the NFL and I screwed my knee up so badly that I could barely walk. I can A. take the season off and rehabilitate the right way... or B. shoot my knee up with pain killers and be on the field the next day. The pain killers worked, but did it solve the problem? no. I can play till the end of the season shooting up. and then when the season is done my knee will not be able to heal properly or ever.

So if the stimulus, tricked people into thinking things are getting better...and will be fine, great! but how long will that last? couple years maybe?

We are printing money, raising taxes and increasing spending. This is an absolute disaster... if you or anyone else thinks that 5-7 years from now or even 15-20 years from now, things are going to be rosy and cute then you are living in a different universe.

We have so many absolutely serious problems, it is ALMOST laughable that the focus the past full year has been healthcare. It is like we have been watching a woman's NCAA preseason basketball game when the super bowl is on another channel.

It is sick... I mean, I don't think Obama is an idiot...he isn't in the position he is in without being smart and savvy. Personally, I think it is pretty obvious that he is a tool and being told lockstep what to do. But to think an elitist like Obama cares about poor people is so backwards. You think Andy Stern and Obama are having all those conversations in the white house so some poor family living in a crap neighborhood with 7 rugrats can live a better life?

We are so absolutely screwed it is actually pretty appalling people think things are getting better, or that some stimulus will fix things.

Why is it awkward?

Hey Fly, how are things?

See, thats the problem. I don't think you understand how the stimulus works. Its not as simple as the analogy you've used.

Some of it works where certain projects that need to be done are addressed. So, you hire construction workers. They make money, the local governments spend stimulus money on these types of projects, hire workers, who in turn spend their paychecks on rent, food, housing, etc. This, in turn, pumps money into the local economies, this creates jobs for something like waitresses and bartenders, who need jobs to cater to these workers who spend their paychecks. This, in turn, helps put money into more rent, food, housing, entertainment, etc.

Thats why I keep using the example of the bucket that takes water from the deep side and pours it into the shallow side. Its the same pool, except you are "stimulating" the economy. You are almost forcing the grease (money) to move through the machine (economy).

The biggest obstacle to capitalism is fear. Fear is what causes consumers to stop spending. This, in turn, causes people to lose jobs, because guess what? If you have 2 million people in a city and all of a sudden everyone cuts out that one dinner out a week, a few waitresses lose their jobs. When a few waitresses lose their jobs and they can't pay the rent, well, a few real estate guys might lose their jobs. etc etc etc.

I'm oversimplifying it, but thats how it works. I really just don't think you understand the nature of the problem. These funds are being recirculated. They aren't just "made out of thin air".

Finally, inflationary pressures are being kept in check right now. Eventually could it become an issue? Yes, but right now its manageable. One thing at a time. First get the economy going again, THEN worry about inflation. Its painful to raise interest rates in a recession. Its not as cut and dried as you think it is.

Oh, and, who did we raise taxes on? I didn't notice any change either way, really. Did you?

Why does it matter whether or not the "certain projects...need to be done"? Your theory holds true whether or not the projects are needed, right? EG, we could pay construction workers to dig a hole and fill it back up again and it'd be good for the economy because it would allow those workers to spend money on rent, food, housing, etc, and so on and so forth.

They are geenerally used for infrastructure projects. Roads, bridges, etc.

My question was does it matter if the projects are needed or not?

Ya, but at the cost of what? 400k per job to the taxpayer? Or whatever the estimates are in that price range. So a few waitresses can keep their jobs?

It is sort of like lowering interest rates to zero to stimulate home buying. Why do this? Lending only supports growth it doesn't create growth.

Yes the funds are being re-circulated... and??? That is my point, recirculating old money doesn't grow an economy. I don't think the government can spend my money better than I can. Do you? If so, why not donate every paycheck to the IRS if you think the government is doing a great job?

We have trillion dollar yearly deficits for as far as the eye can see... taxes are going up. Interest payments on these deficits are going to eat up all our GDP before the end of the decade. Hence we are screwed.

No disrespect, but **** the roads and bridges. We are going to grow zero if we confiscate tax money to pay a bunch of union clowns to have shinier roads.

And there are plenty of private contractors to be hired to fix that crap

The list of questionable spending is a mile long. Many that I don't think will create long-term growth, or even cause much wealth-spreading. There's tons of this stuff documented.