Global Warming/ Climate change thread. - Politics and Economics

Two Plus Two Forums Other Topics Politics

Global Warming/ Climate change thread.

...

Page 1 of 122

First

1 2 3 4 5 6 11 21 51 101

Last

Page 1 of 122

First

1 2 3 4 5 6 11 21 51 101

Last

11-19-2009 , 06:52 PM

mephisto

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,373

I was about to make this article a separate thread but decided not to.

Fact: World's temperatures have not been warming for the past 10 years.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...662092,00.html

/thread

Last edited by ElliotR; 11-21-2009 at 09:25 PM.

$25m Guaranteed WPM on CoinPoker

Join the action now

Daily Rewards • Splash Pots • CoinRaces

11-19-2009 , 07:58 PM

adios

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 22,558

Quote:

Originally Posted by mephisto

The "debate" is far from over. Too much power, money and influence at stake to let factoids muck up the works. Elitists like this dude will carry the water:

What They Really Believe

So either the opponents of a serious energy/climate bill with a price on carbon don’t care about our being addicted to oil and dependent on petro-dictators forever or they really believe that we will not be adding 2.5 billion more people who want to live like us, so the price of oil won’t go up very far and, therefore, we shouldn’t raise taxes to stimulate clean, renewable alternatives and energy efficiency.

Green hawks believe otherwise. We believe that in a world getting warmer and more crowded with more “Americans,” the next great global industry is going to be E.T., or energy technology based on clean power and energy efficiency. It has to be. And we believe that the country that invents and deploys the most E.T. will enjoy the most economic security, energy security, national security, innovative companies and global respect. And we believe that country must be America. If not, our children will never enjoy the standard of living we did. And we believe the best way to launch E.T. is to set a fixed, long-term price on carbon — combine it with the Obama team’s impressive stimulus for green-tech — and then let the free market and innovation do the rest.

So, as I said, you don’t believe in global warming? You’re wrong, but I’ll let you enjoy it until your beach house gets washed away. But if you also don’t believe the world is getting more crowded with more aspiring Americans — and that ignoring that will play to the strength of our worst enemies, while responding to it with clean energy will play to the strength of our best technologies — then you’re willfully blind, and you’re hurting America’s future to boot.

11-19-2009 , 08:15 PM

13ball

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 12,912

Quote:

Originally Posted by mephisto

Looks like warming to me:

11-19-2009 , 09:54 PM

Brian J

TOTP Master

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 10,650

good job taking on the article; who needs to, you have a graph

11-19-2009 , 10:56 PM

mephisto

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,373

Gotta love how he doesn't even bother footnoting it either, he's treating it like the gospel.

11-19-2009 , 11:06 PM

Max Raker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 15,738

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian J

good job taking on the article; who needs to, you have a graph

Huh? How is actual data worse than some journalist's verbal diarrhea?

11-19-2009 , 11:19 PM

Jcrew

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 550

Possible sh*tstorm coming:

http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/200...62-mb-of-gold/

11-19-2009 , 11:31 PM

Max Raker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 15,738

I don't get it. Is it a leak from FOIA act request, or stolen emails via a hacker? (Or just completely made up???) I have worked on NSF grants about would have been very surprised if all my emails were subject to FOIA.

11-19-2009 , 11:37 PM

Jcrew

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 550

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

Hacked. Although there is a strong possibility that some emails were altered, there is too much detail for it to be completely made up. McIntyre*verified that emails from him found in the file are 100% legit.

11-19-2009 , 11:40 PM

#10

13ball

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 12,912

Quote:

Originally Posted by mephisto

Gotta love how he doesn't even bother footnoting it either, he's treating it like the gospel.

It's NASA GISS. One of the indexes mentioned in the article.

11-19-2009 , 11:41 PM

#11

Max Raker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 15,738

What does it have to do with the FOIA then?

11-19-2009 , 11:44 PM

#12

Jcrew

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 550

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

What does it have to do with the FOIA then?

That was the name of the zip file. I think the hacker was just poking fun, since some of the emails were talking about how to get around FOIA requests. BTW, I was not able to get the file before it was taken down. Just been reading excerpts from comments in various blogs.

11-19-2009 , 11:52 PM

#13

Max Raker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 15,738

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jcrew

Yeah, it was so large making it all up would have been crazy. Don't think any of it can be considered reliable (especially if things are scandalous) without independent confirmation

11-19-2009 , 11:55 PM

#14

Max Raker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 15,738

Is Climate Audit down?

11-20-2009 , 12:03 AM

#15

Jcrew

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 550

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

Yeah, it was so large making it all up would have been crazy. Don't think any of it can be considered reliable (especially if things are scandalous) without independent confirmation

Agreed. But there is some matlab code, so things like Mann's confidence interval around his hockey stick which McIntyre was not able to figure out how to replicate, might get some light shed on.

11-20-2009 , 12:04 AM

#16

Jcrew

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 550

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

Is Climate Audit down?

I was able to get to it 20 minutes ago but not now.

11-20-2009 , 12:06 AM

#17

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,420

Holy crap at that email.

imo

11-20-2009 , 12:09 AM

#18

Max Raker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 15,738

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jcrew

I was able to get to it 20 minutes ago but not now.

Was McIntyre's confirmation direct, or had he posted with permission an email a while back that was also in the file?

11-20-2009 , 12:11 AM

#19

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,420

Quote:

Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or
first thing tomorrow.
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers
Phil

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) xxxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [email protected]
NR4 7TJ
UK

Saw second hand reports that McIntyre confirmed the contact info was at least legit.

I have to be skeptical, but if I was betting this seems pretty freakin legit.

11-20-2009 , 12:13 AM

#20

Jcrew

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 550

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Raker

Steve McIntyre (Comment#23773) November 19th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
I’m having trouble getting into CA right now.
I made up a pdf of the emails to help browse through them and it’s over 2000 pages. Every email that I’ve examined so far looks genuine. There are a few emails of mine that are 100% genuine.
It is really quite breathtaking.

from:

http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009...fake/#comments

11-20-2009 , 12:22 AM

#21

13ball

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 12,912

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

Saw second hand reports that McIntyre confirmed the contact info was at least legit.

I have to be skeptical, but if I was betting this seems pretty freakin legit.

Yeah, because someone who would hack emails would never alter them.

Obviously they could be real. But the email you quoted doesn't even make sense in terms of conspiracy.

11-20-2009 , 12:49 AM

#22

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by 13ball

Yeah, because someone who would hack emails would never alter them.

Obviously they could be real. But the email you quoted doesn't even make sense in terms of conspiracy.

When did I say that this was 100% for sure? I'd put it at 90% or so though. It's just too much to fake imo. Maybe they could have changed some small things to attempt to embarrass but that doesn't seem to make much sense when they seem to have enough material to embarrass them already.

time will tell obv.

11-20-2009 , 12:51 AM

#23

Max Raker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 15,738

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

When did I say that this was 100% for sure? I'd put it at 90% or so though. It's just too much to fake imo. Maybe they could have changed some small things to attempt to embarrass but that doesn't seem to make much sense when they seem to have enough material to embarrass them already.

Thats pretty circular logic.

11-20-2009 , 01:07 AM

#24

Jcrew

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 550

Quote:

Originally Posted by 13ball

Yeah, because someone who would hack emails would never alter them.

Obviously they could be real. But the email you quoted doesn't even make sense in terms of conspiracy.

Conspiracy theory is pretty weak but there seem to be really ****ty non ideal scientist behavior. Biggest thing that may come out of this besides privacy issues is deleting FOIA information. Not sure how serious that is.