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09-16-2011 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
atta boy. If you keep up the rhetoric lessons, perhaps some day the ranks will even be full of people willing to listen to your drivel.
09-16-2011 , 05:43 PM
The E.U is shockingly anti-democratic and it is competing with Nation States for sovereignty. It's the modern day version of the Articles of Confederation.

At the pace Europe is disintegrating, the E.U will be forced to break apart in the next few years unless it goes through significant reform.

We've bailed out the banks and now we are bailing out countries. It's unsustainable. As long as the E.U continues to ignore free market principles. The debt crisis will go on and on.
09-16-2011 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey
lol....
The collapse will come any day now. Just a few more years amirite?
09-16-2011 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
At the pace Europe is disintegrating, the E.U will be forced to break apart in the next few years unless it goes through significant reform.
Probably not wrong. Now what's your point again?
09-16-2011 , 05:45 PM
13th, the UK isn't part of the eurozone, just fyi.
09-16-2011 , 05:45 PM
How can collapse come now if they have money enough for until mid-october or something?
09-16-2011 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fretelöo
Sorry People, all the doomsdaying won't do it. Rösler and Lindner are the only ones of statue who so far openly talked about default an they did so for obvious national political reasons (elections comming up in Berlin and the FDP in desperate need of a talking point that'll resonate with voters).

By now, Merkel et al know the stakes (or at least, if they don't, they'll never will) and you can all bet your last dime on it that they won't let the euro zone go down in flames. They know that the uncontrolled turmoil that'll follow a defaulting greece will be much tougher on us both economically and fiscally than any bailout will ever be. We'll split the bill between france and germany if need be and to hell with national parliaments approval. They'll budge if they need to and if the writing's clearly on the wall as to what the alternative will look like.

You guys keep forgetting that we don't have tea-partiers over here. Our MoPs can actually articulate a cogent argument if need be. And follow one, for that matter.
Dont agree with much of this but I agree people totally over-estimate the likelyhood of a breakup of any sort.

They seem to have no idea how the EU operates. Even if Greece defaults, which itself may not be allowed to happen, we will hear of orderly defaults and whatever turmoil follows the EU will claim to be the solution.
09-16-2011 , 05:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brons
13th, the UK isn't part of the eurozone, just fyi.
Yeah and they are going to be thankful for that sometime in the very near future.
09-16-2011 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fretelöo
Probably not wrong. Now what's your point again?
Bailing out Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal will not work. The debt crisis will continue as long as E.U politicians believe this and the entire world economy will suffer because of it. Thanks Europe.
09-16-2011 , 05:56 PM
Heh, I guess it's payback for crashing the world economy earlier
09-16-2011 , 06:10 PM
Huh, well, I'm just some shmug, of course, with little economic understanding, but riddle me this:

- Italy is the 4th largest EU economy, worlds 8th largest. It's debt is 100 and change as % of GDP, compared to 80 and change for germany. We're the worlds 4th larget and europes prime, paying record low interest rates on our debt currently. So why would a 20% increase in debt mean they default if their current economic situation isn't only sound but if they're also undertaking significant steps to cut spendings.

- Spain... has a 20% lower national dept as % of GDP than germany (~60%). It has also just passed significant spending cut programs. It's economy is europes 5th largest after italy. So why would they default again?

So if we actually have to undertake steps to bail out greece that go above and beyond those already layed out, why would the oh-so rational markets assume that we won't do the same to whatever extend is needed for portugal (that prolly being the most likely next candidate)? Portugals debt is 80% of GDP - that totals about 200 billion. Meh.

Have you heard the term market hysteria before?
09-16-2011 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brons
The collapse will come any day now. Just a few more years amirite?
I see... So you're one of those countless ADHD posters who insists that if something doesn't happen overnight, it must not be happening at all.

Collapse will mean different things for different people at different times. Surely, behind your gated community, it may take a little longer.
09-16-2011 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fretelöo
Sorry People, all the doomsdaying won't do it. Rösler and Lindner are the only ones of statue who so far openly talked about default an they did so for obvious national political reasons (elections comming up in Berlin and the FDP in desperate need of a talking point that'll resonate with voters).

By now, Merkel et al know the stakes (or at least, if they don't, they'll never will) and you can all bet your last dime on it that they won't let the euro zone go down in flames. They know that the uncontrolled turmoil that'll follow a defaulting greece will be much tougher on us both economically and fiscally than any bailout will ever be. We'll split the bill between france and germany if need be and to hell with national parliaments approval. They'll budge if they need to and if the writing's clearly on the wall as to what the alternative will look like.

You guys keep forgetting that we don't have tea-partiers over here. Our MoPs can actually articulate a cogent argument if need be. And follow one, for that matter.
Dont agree with much of this but I agree people totally over-estimate the likelyhood of a breakup of any sort.

They seem to have no idea how the EU operates. Even if Greece defaults, which itself may not be allowed to happen, we will hear of orderly defaults and whatever turmoil follows the EU will claim to be the solution.

There's a view that the EU is unable to make decisions so cannot act like the USA does but this is a huge mistake. When push comes to shove the heads of state gather with the officials and they make radical decisions to find a way forward, anyone who tries to descent is brow beaten into a compromise. Its not pretty but its very effective in moving the beast forward.

Last edited by chezlaw; 09-16-2011 at 06:25 PM.
09-17-2011 , 11:22 AM
Maybe very significant?

"Greek crisis: PM George Papandreou cancels US visit"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14960216
09-17-2011 , 08:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Low Key
the EU is rather ****ed. It's a terrible idea to treat sovereign nations as states within the US
Can only work if Germany/France/England agree to invade and colonize Southern Europe.
09-17-2011 , 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fretelöo
Sorry People, all the doomsdaying won't do it. Rösler and Lindner are the only ones of statue who so far openly talked about default an they did so for obvious national political reasons (elections comming up in Berlin and the FDP in desperate need of a talking point that'll resonate with voters).

By now, Merkel et al know the stakes (or at least, if they don't, they'll never will) and you can all bet your last dime on it that they won't let the euro zone go down in flames. They know that the uncontrolled turmoil that'll follow a defaulting greece will be much tougher on us both economically and fiscally than any bailout will ever be. We'll split the bill between france and germany if need be and to hell with national parliaments approval. They'll budge if they need to and if the writing's clearly on the wall as to what the alternative will look like.

You guys keep forgetting that we don't have tea-partiers over here. Our MoPs can actually articulate a cogent argument if need be. And follow one, for that matter.
A currency, even legal tender can not be successful if the market does not want it. Thinking that the strong Merkel or the mighty Sarko have any say in the market indicates that you believe what is told on Television. Only the market decides and it will tell if there is room for the € or there is none. I will write about that important question later.
09-17-2011 , 09:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fretelöo
How can collapse come now if they have money enough for until mid-october or something?
1. They do not have the money (eventually they will go broke everybody knows that.)
2. ???
3. massive capital flight

It is all about banks and capital!
09-17-2011 , 09:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fretelöo
What I meant was not that it won't matter but that we'll get it if need be.

See - that's the difference between us and you guys. Our elected officials still realize when it's time to put aside philosophical differences and begrudgingly do what needs to be done for the greater good of all.

tea baggers just look at you stupidly and quote the bible.
lol at you thinking Bailing out Greece is for our "greater good".

Also you absolutely have no idea why the "Tea Party Fraction" opposed the raising of the debt ceiling - you probably do not even know what the Tea Party actually consists of.

Brainwashed much? (I love how Euros, like me once I have to admit, come in here and try to tell Americans how it is done - the Norwegianguy is probably even worse than you - since he "loves socialism" but is glad Norwege is not in the EU - congrats that your leaders have made the "right" choice....

Last edited by BurningSquirrel; 09-17-2011 at 10:11 PM.
09-22-2011 , 08:43 AM
The great euro swindle

Quote:
Very rarely in political history has any faction or movement enjoyed such a complete and crushing victory as the Conservative Eurosceptics.

The field is theirs. They were not merely right about the single currency, the greatest economic issue of our age – they were right for the right reasons. They foresaw with lucid, prophetic accuracy exactly how and why the euro would bring with it financial devastation and social collapse.

Meanwhile, the pro-Europeans find themselves in the same situation as appeasers in 1940, or communists after the fall of the Berlin Wall. They are utterly busted. Let's examine the case of the Financial Times, which claims to be Britain's premier economic publication. About 25 years ago something went wrong with the FT. It ceased to be the dry, rigorous journal of economic record so respected under its great postwar editor Sir Gordon Newton.

Turning its back on its readers, it was captured by a clique of left-wing journalists. An early sign that something was going wrong came when the FT came out against the Falklands invasion. Naturally it supported Britain's entry to the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1990. In 1992, it endorsed Neil Kinnock as prime minister. It has been wrong on every single major economic judgment over the past quarter century.

The central historical error of the modern Financial Times concerns the euro. The FT flung itself headlong into the pro-euro camp, embracing the cause with an almost religious passion. Doubts were dismissed. Here is the paper's Lex column on January 8, 2001, on the subject of Greek entry to the eurozone: "With Greece now trading in euros," reflected Lex, "few will mourn the death of the drachma. Membership of the eurozone offers the prospect of long-term economic stability." The FT offered a similarly warm welcome to Ireland.
09-22-2011 , 09:12 AM
FYI leftists in Scandinavia were and are very skeptical towards the EU, while the right is generally positive.
09-22-2011 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soulman
FYI leftists in Scandinavia were and are very skeptical towards the EU, while the right is generally positive.
Good for them.
09-22-2011 , 09:22 AM
Right?

Last edited by Soulman; 09-22-2011 at 09:22 AM. Reason: rimshot
09-22-2011 , 09:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
lol at the the Telegraph which being kind, is a piece of toilet paper. The FT is just about the only decent paper and would have had grown up analysis from many perspectives.

Sure the Euro-sceptics were right when taking shots at Brussels, some targets are too big for anyone to miss. Doesn't mean many weren't loonies (not all of us of course)

The tragedy of all this is the problem was known about in advance. Convergence was required before countries were allowed to join the Euro and it was an open secret that the criteria were being totally fudged. If Brussels and any other politician didn't know the criteria were being flouted its because they made damn sure not to know - most of course did know but made damn sure no-one could prove that they knew.
09-22-2011 , 09:42 AM
French banks could tip Europe back into a full-blown banking crisis

Quote:
Conventional wisdom may now be only half right when it comes to solving Europe’s mess. Fixing the sovereign debt problem is still necessary, but it may no longer be sufficient. Europe must also move quickly to stabilise the banks at its core in ways that go far beyond what the European Central Bank announced on Wednesday. As senior BNP Paribas executives prepare to tour the Middle East in an attempt to raise fresh funds and shore up confidence, other banks must also show greater urgency and seriousness in dealing with capital and asset quality shortfalls.

Much of the discussion on the crisis is based on the assumption that sovereign debt is both the problem and the solution. Initially, this was correct. The combination of too much debt and too little growth pushed the most vulnerable countries (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) into a classic debt trap. Timid policy responses then fuelled contagion waves that undermined other sectors.

The problem today has become much more complicated. In addition to being on the receiving end, some of these sectors have become standalone sources of regional dislocations.

Italy is, of course, the most visible example. Interest rates on what is the third largest government debt market in the world remain stubbornly high in spite of persistent market intervention by the ECB. Wednesday’s rating cuts of some of the country’s leading banks, following Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the country’s sovereign debt on Monday, complicates matters.

Yet, as notable as this is, it is not the most immediately threatening issue for a global economy that, in the words of Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, has entered “a dangerous phase”. The rapidly burning fuse is in the European banking system, particularly in France, and Europe is getting very close to yet another tipping point.

The facts are striking and worrisome. Private institutions around the world, and even some public ones, have sharply reduced short-term lending to French banks. Credit markets now put their risk of default at levels indicative of a BB rating, which is fundamentally inconsistent with sound banking operations. Bank equity now trades at a 50 per cent discount to tangible book value on average. To make things worse, the ratio of market capital to total assets has fallen to 1 – 1.5 per cent (compared with six to eight per cent for healthier banks).

These are all signs of an institutional run on French banks. If it persists, the banks would have no choice but to delever their balance sheets in a very drastic and disorderly fashion. Retail depositors would get edgy and be tempted to follow trading and institutional clients through the exit doors. Europe would thus be thrown into a full-blown banking crisis that aggravates the sovereign debt trap, renders certain another economic recession, and significantly worsens the outlook for the global economy.
09-22-2011 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soulman
FYI leftists in Scandinavia were and are very skeptical towards the EU, while the right is generally positive.
What are the reasons for being against it?

Also your simplistic categorisation between left and right does not seem to indicate a very differentiated view on politics.

But first:

isolationist socialst - good for you ...

In Germany we had a term for that movement... just saying

Last edited by BurningSquirrel; 09-22-2011 at 11:47 AM.

      
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