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Originally Posted by sylar
Fwiw renewables isn't the only environmental issue around. It's tied to co2, and that's the most global issue we've ever seen. It signals a lot in terms of who will have the power balance in the next 100 years, and china is in on that, especially as it's becoming cheaper and more abundant than coal. But they've hardly moved on a bunch of other issues from conservation to harvesting ecosystems in a sustainable way. China is going to do what China does. Find a button that brings it closest to the first world in the immediate future and press the crap out of it. There's a ton of value in it, and it truly impressive when they succeed, but they are not doing everything. They are building whole cities out of concrete (a huge co2 release) and then let it go to waste by not settling it with people. Solar panels could have easily turned out to suck at the same time as China started churning them out by the billions of units. But in 2-5 years those panels will likely be more efficient and less recyclable than what's being researched right now. This isn't meant to be alarmist, but china gambled, and so far simply subsidized the world's solar at this moment.
China has a lot of perverse things going on like the ghost cities, but that's not exactly right about the solar.
First of all, solar originally was produced mostly in the US and then moved to Germany and Japan and then to China. China is currently the largest manufacturer and makes more than half the solar modules, but just a bit more than half. They don't control the market.
Why will panels be less recyclable than what's made now?
There's generally a perception that the solar technology is changing faster than it is. The modern solar photovoltaic panel is barely any different than it was 9 years ago when I started in the industry and not really very different than 40 years ago. Prices have come down as manufacturing processes have become more efficient and automated. Efficiencies go up a little bit every year, but there hasn't been a dramatic breakthrough kind of change. The incremental change has been very steady though and prices are about 1/6th per watt of what they were 9 years ago and panels produce about 40% more power for the same size panel.