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11-28-2016 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
No, and there's never been a problem starting and stopping photovoltaics, which stop producing every night. Perhaps some other solar technology, but I don't think so.
What I am referring to is that when you have intermittent sources of energy, it increases the cost of the baseload energy when it has to provide power inconsistently. This is a big reason electricity rates haven't decreased despite renewables continuing to scale.

Sorry for not clarifying better.
11-28-2016 , 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
What I am referring to is that when you have intermittent sources of energy, it increases the cost of the baseload energy when it has to provide power inconsistently. This is a big reason electricity rates haven't decreased despite renewables continuing to scale.

Sorry for not clarifying better.
Germany has a lot more solar, a lot of it is older and was more expensive, and it's not very sunny.

Only recently has unsubsidized solar reached parity with the least expensive baseline power in sunny areas.
11-28-2016 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
http://www.economist.com/news/intern...en-if-americas

Economist on what Trump might do as far as environmental policy goes.
Quote:
Mr Trump is indeed unpredictable. Since the election he has signalled a contempt for climate science by appointing a climate-change denier, Myron Ebell, to plan his takeover of the EPA, through which Mr Obama, in the absence of congressional support for environmental law-making, has issued much new green regulation. In the New York Times interview, however, Mr Trump suggested that he accepted the reality of anthropogenic warming and might not seek to withdraw from the Paris accord. He has now taken just about every position on climate change imaginable. As well as calling it a hoax—by the Chinese, with the aim of harming American manufacturing—he has said the world is warming but humans have nothing to do with it, that human activity plays a “minor” role in warming, donated money to a group lobbying for action to avert climate change and, in 2009, signed a public letter calling for cuts to America’s emissions, thereby creating “new energy jobs”.

Mr Trump’s view on climate change, it seems, is chiefly governed by what he thinks each audience wants to hear.
Leader of the free world.
11-28-2016 , 04:34 PM
Changes at NASA will be a tragedy. The climate data needs a continuous record.
11-28-2016 , 04:38 PM
Maybe Europe or China will step up. We're done being a progressive force in the world for a while.
11-28-2016 , 05:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Maybe Europe or China will step up. We're done being a progressive force in the world for a while.
No matter what any other country or agency does, the continuity of climate data depends on NASA. They can start their own measurements and reach their own conclusions, but some things just won't be apples to apples.
11-29-2016 , 01:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shifty86
Your anti-human and anti-progress. You want to slow down and raise the cost of the source where majority people get their electricity and energy.

Curious when you protest and stop these project's forcing America to import oil from the Middle East which funds terrorism, beheading's and everything else that comes with it. How does that make you feel?
in this story, The Most Mysterious Star in Our Galaxy, the author talks about a group of scientists at yale who found 1 single star out of more than 150,000 in our galaxy which was emitting strange and very unusual light patterns. after years of exhausting all possible known scientific explanations, they began to consider the unlikely possibility that the abnormal light patterns could be the result of megastructures built by extraterrestrial life to harvest the energy, or light, from the star.

of course, this could all just be an anomaly, and maybe this phenomenon does indeed have some yet to be discovered scientific explanation. however, on the remote chance that these scientist's last-ditch explanation is somehow correct, then that would mean that a highly advanced, intelligent civilization with technology likely beyond the scope of human imagination forwent alternate sources of power to utilize solar as their primary source of energy.
11-29-2016 , 02:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Maybe Europe or China will step up. We're done being a progressive force in the world for a while.
Highly unlikely for China to step up on environmental issues.
11-29-2016 , 02:18 AM
Well they better if they want to rule the world in 100 years. At least they don't have to worry about getting a fickle, gullible, sacrifice-averse, shill-believing public to play along.
11-29-2016 , 02:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amoeba
Highly unlikely for China to step up on environmental issues.
China installed the most solar in the world in 2015.

China installed the most wind power by a huge margin in 2015.

China signed the Paris Agreement and afaik isn't talking about dropping out.
11-29-2016 , 03:20 AM
Fwiw renewables isn't the only environmental issue around. It's tied to co2, and that's the most global issue we've ever seen. It signals a lot in terms of who will have the power balance in the next 100 years, and china is in on that, especially as it's becoming cheaper and more abundant than coal. But they've hardly moved on a bunch of other issues from conservation to harvesting ecosystems in a sustainable way. China is going to do what China does. Find a button that brings it closest to the first world in the immediate future and press the crap out of it. There's a ton of value in it, and it truly impressive when they succeed, but they are not doing everything. They are building whole cities out of concrete (a huge co2 release) and then let it go to waste by not settling it with people. Solar panels could have easily turned out to suck at the same time as China started churning them out by the billions of units. But in 2-5 years those panels will likely be more efficient and less recyclable than what's being researched right now. This isn't meant to be alarmist, but china gambled, and so far simply subsidized the world's solar at this moment.
11-29-2016 , 03:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
China installed the most solar in the world in 2015.

China installed the most wind power by a huge margin in 2015.

China signed the Paris Agreement and afaik isn't talking about dropping out.
All those are nice things and yet there is no Chinese city with drinkable tap water, there are still days in which residents have to stay inside due to the high level of particles in the air. Despite China's immense growth in wealth, the very basics of environmental protection (clean water, clean air, food safety, reduced deforestation, protection of endangered species) are not stressed.

I mean the things you bring up are nice but at the ground level, if there is a choice between profit and the environment, I know which way China will likely lean.
11-29-2016 , 03:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amoeba
All those are nice things and yet there is no Chinese city with drinkable tap water, there are still days in which residents have to stay inside due to the high level of particles in the air.

I mean the things you bring up are nice but at the ground level, if there is a choice between profit and the environment, I know which way the China will likely lean.
They do have big problems, but they are doing something to address air pollution as well - at least they have passed new air pollution laws. It's not something I follow closely though. China obviously has a lot of work to do and hopefully they will do it as they become wealthy enough. It is scary when you consider how much their demand can still grow.
11-29-2016 , 03:36 AM
Its very scary. Licenses to drive in Beijing or Shanghai cost about 18000. This also limits you to driving on either odd or even days. Cars cost 1.5x to 3x what they cost in the US dependent on whether it is manufactured in China. Despite all this, the demand for cars is sky high.

It is not a wealth issue. It is a mentality issue of "I finally made it, time to get mine" I can understand and sympathize with this mentality as 1st world western countries have had things like car ownership and house ownership for so long that these are no longer as aspirational as before.
11-29-2016 , 03:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
Fwiw renewables isn't the only environmental issue around. It's tied to co2, and that's the most global issue we've ever seen. It signals a lot in terms of who will have the power balance in the next 100 years, and china is in on that, especially as it's becoming cheaper and more abundant than coal. But they've hardly moved on a bunch of other issues from conservation to harvesting ecosystems in a sustainable way. China is going to do what China does. Find a button that brings it closest to the first world in the immediate future and press the crap out of it. There's a ton of value in it, and it truly impressive when they succeed, but they are not doing everything. They are building whole cities out of concrete (a huge co2 release) and then let it go to waste by not settling it with people. Solar panels could have easily turned out to suck at the same time as China started churning them out by the billions of units. But in 2-5 years those panels will likely be more efficient and less recyclable than what's being researched right now. This isn't meant to be alarmist, but china gambled, and so far simply subsidized the world's solar at this moment.
China has a lot of perverse things going on like the ghost cities, but that's not exactly right about the solar.

First of all, solar originally was produced mostly in the US and then moved to Germany and Japan and then to China. China is currently the largest manufacturer and makes more than half the solar modules, but just a bit more than half. They don't control the market.

Why will panels be less recyclable than what's made now?

There's generally a perception that the solar technology is changing faster than it is. The modern solar photovoltaic panel is barely any different than it was 9 years ago when I started in the industry and not really very different than 40 years ago. Prices have come down as manufacturing processes have become more efficient and automated. Efficiencies go up a little bit every year, but there hasn't been a dramatic breakthrough kind of change. The incremental change has been very steady though and prices are about 1/6th per watt of what they were 9 years ago and panels produce about 40% more power for the same size panel.
11-29-2016 , 03:48 AM
China's population size is just a huge problem. Especially since they all want to live like we do in the western world and you can't blame them. If they all would pollute like us then it would be a lot worse and it is already pretty bad in the big cities.
11-29-2016 , 03:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amoeba
Its very scary. Licenses to drive in Beijing or Shanghai cost about 18000. This also limits you to driving on either odd or even days. Cars cost 1.5x to 3x what they cost in the US dependent on whether it is manufactured in China. Despite all this, the demand for cars is sky high.

It is not a wealth issue. It is a mentality issue of "I finally made it, time to get mine" I can understand and sympathize with this mentality as 1st world western countries have had things like car ownership and house ownership for so long that these are no longer as aspirational as before.
I watched something about driving in China. People say "BMW" stands for "Be My Wife."
11-29-2016 , 04:09 AM
Well, that's not really on driving, that's more on the topic of the financial requirements for marriage.

You guys touched upon ghost cities. The problem isn't the construction of these structures. The problem is the lack of development of infrastructure, schools, hospitals, and jobs around where these structures reside. Nobody is willing to give up a literal 200 sq foot shack in the city for a 1000 sq foot spot in the middle of nowhere.
11-29-2016 , 04:21 AM
Actually, if you want to look at a clean energy front where China is making great progress, it would be the solar water heater. I wish they would catch on in the US, especially since standalone houses are more suited to this design.

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059983772
11-29-2016 , 10:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amoeba
Actually, if you want to look at a clean energy front where China is making great progress, it would be the solar water heater. I wish they would catch on in the US, especially since standalone houses are more suited to this design.

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059983772
In something like 1890 just about everyone in Pasadena had a solar hot water heater. I think I must have learned that on a tour of a historic house in Pasadena.

Most people have solar hot water in Israel (and probably a lot of other places too).

When I started my business I intended to do solar water heating too (and have done a few pools) but sales never came and photovoltaic systems did.
11-29-2016 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
China installed the most solar in the world in 2015.

China installed the most wind power by a huge margin in 2015.

China signed the Paris Agreement and afaik isn't talking about dropping out.
China is also reportedly looking at converting many of their coal plants into next-gen nuclear reactors.
11-29-2016 , 12:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
In something like 1890 just about everyone in Pasadena had a solar hot water heater. I think I must have learned that on a tour of a historic house in Pasadena.

Most people have solar hot water in Israel (and probably a lot of other places too).

When I started my business I intended to do solar water heating too (and have done a few pools) but sales never came and photovoltaic systems did.
Aesthetically, they just aren't very attractive.
11-29-2016 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amoeba
Aesthetically, they just aren't very attractive.
Some of the newer ones are much more compact and better looking (less ugly) than the ones people put up in the 70s.

I have an impractical idea about mixing art and solar hot water heating. You can make a solar hot water heater just about any shape including a sculpture. It would have to be an expensive custom thing for rich people or more likely just a personal project.
11-29-2016 , 03:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
Bill Gates company TerraPower is making its 4th generation nuclear reactor there. I think China is building something like 20 nuclear reactors a year, they are really taking the initiative in that area.
11-29-2016 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
China has a lot of perverse things going on like the ghost cities, but that's not exactly right about the solar.

First of all, solar originally was produced mostly in the US and then moved to Germany and Japan and then to China. China is currently the largest manufacturer and makes more than half the solar modules, but just a bit more than half. They don't control the market.

Why will panels be less recyclable than what's made now?

There's generally a perception that the solar technology is changing faster than it is. The modern solar photovoltaic panel is barely any different than it was 9 years ago when I started in the industry and not really very different than 40 years ago. Prices have come down as manufacturing processes have become more efficient and automated. Efficiencies go up a little bit every year, but there hasn't been a dramatic breakthrough kind of change. The incremental change has been very steady though and prices are about 1/6th per watt of what they were 9 years ago and panels produce about 40% more power for the same size panel.
I don't disagree with you, but fact of the matter is that panels made with silicon and heavy metal film are going to hit the efficiency limit, so there's already usable multilayer and synthetic molecule technology that simply cannot get off the ground because existing panels are already as cheap as conventional energy.

While panel production may get cheaper, but will likely not get cheaper recycling, due to being mostly glass. Even if PV panels can be recycled, once the chinese made panels reach end of life, the recycling plants won't keep up with the demand. That's coming 5-15 years from now, because of the wave of installs we already experienced. So the economics is far from settled, and china isn't solving that particular problem. That's all I'm trying to add to what you wrote.

      
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