60 is not going to happen but man it would be awesome to see Chambliss get the boot.

The Democrats need to 9 to 10 seats (depending on how dependable Lieberman is) to get to 60, assuming Landrieu defends her seat in LA (looks likely).

I want to note that Intrade is so low volume on Senate races as to be meaningless, but that's about equivalent to any pundit like Charlie Cook or Larry Sabato who tracks this stuff, plus it's easy to use Intrade numbers:

99% Lock to be a Dem pickup:

- Virginia (ship Warner)

Probable Dem pickups/races that are at least leaning Dem:

- New Mexico (Udall is 90% on Intrade)
- Colorado (Udall is 80% on Intrade)
- Alaska (Begich is 75% on Intrade)
- New Hampshire (Shaheen 75% on Intrade)
- North Carolina (Hagen is 70% on Intrade)

Tossups/Lean GOP races:

- Minnesota (I'm not buying Franken will win but, maybe)
- Oregon (Merkley would win against 95% of Republicans but Smith has essentially recast himself as a Democrat and Obama fan boi)
- Kentucky (again, not buying Lunsford, and if there's any Democrat I would root against, it would be him; but it's Kentucky so he's probably about as progressive as you can get there, which is not at all)
- Georgia (see above poll)

That's 6 likely pickups plus another 4 more that are kinda-sorta in play. I don't think Allen has a significant shot in Maine but ass him to the list and there's 6 likely pickups/5 in play. If they run hot they can get to 60. Like I said, I'm not saying it's likely but there's probably a 10% shot now.

I would put Shaheen at >75%. I think she's a lock to win as of now.

God I hope GA goes to Martin, I've hated Chambliss ever since what he did to Cleland in '02

Albuquerque Journal poll came out today has Udall up 51 to 36 over Pearce. I'd say Udall is better than 90% to win. Just can't see him losing no way, no how. Dems definitely pick up a seat with this one.

If Obama/Biden win, what's the procedure for filling their respective seats?

If Biden wins, the Governor appoints a democrat to fill the seat for two years, until November 2010 election. Then, in November 2010, Beau Biden wins the seat and takes over his father's spot in the senate.

Beau Biden ONE TIME BABY!

both states fill vacant senate seats by gubernatorial appointment. and both states have democratic governors. rod blagojevich of illinois and ruth ann minner of delaware

Hysterical video of Norm Coleman's spokesperson, refusing to answer questions

There must have been a better way to deal with this.

Also, keep in mind that the Dems don't necessarily need 60 to beat filibusters. There are a decent number of moderate Republicans (Snowe, Collins, Chafee) who will vote for much of the Dem agenda.

Keep in mind, though, that Chafee hasn't been a Senator since 2006, so his votes no longer count during roll-calls.

Besides Snowe, Collins, and Specter, though -- the ranks of moderate GOP Senators is awfully shallow. Gordon Smith is kind-of one, too, if he survives his race. Lugar and Sununu (again, if he survives) can sometimes be convinced to cross the aisle (but not usually).

arrgh stupid MSNBC people. "Franken's leading in MN by 5 points, but there's a 5 point MoE so it's a statistical dead heat" hyachachahca why not just say "there's a 5 point MoE so Franken's really ahead by 10 imo"

With all of these polls pushing in Franken's favor, how come fivethirtyeight still has Coleman as a 55% favorite?

LOL

Rasmussen, MN:

Franken 43
Coleman 37

60 Democrats in the Senate just got a touch more likely.

w/e. Two out of three moderate Republican Senators is better than most people outside of Maine can do.

One pundit's views on the three most "high-return" Senate races

I'm more flush with cash than I have been for a while, so I've just sent $50 to each of these, plus Hagan in NC, plus $50 to the DSCC. (I'll be damned if I ever give Lunsford a penny.) I've given $450 to candidates this cycle. How much influence does that get me? Will they name a middle school after me or something?

538 currently has us at 30% to get 60+ seats. It could really happen, which is absolutely nuts to even consider.

NRSC Pulling out of Colorado

NRSC out of Louisiana too (the only Dem seat the GOP was competing for).

Still 99% Lock to be a Dem pickup:

- Virginia (ship Warner)

Now 99%+ to be Dem pickups:

- Colorado (see GOP pulling out)

Still probable Dem pickups/races that are at least leaning Dem:

- New Mexico (Udall is 90% on Intrade, 100% on 538)
- New Hampshire (Shaheen 85% on Intrade, 83% on 538)
- North Carolina (Hagen is 70% on Intrade, 66% on 538)

Move to tossup:
- Oregon (Merkley now 65% on Intrade, 63% on 538)
- Minnesota (Franken is 60% on Intrade, 55% on 538)
- Alaska (Begich is 65% on Intrade, 58% on 538)

New Tossups/Lean GOP races:

- Mississippi (Wicker 60% on Intrade, 60% on 538)

Still Tossups/Lean GOP races:

- Kentucky (McConnell is 60% on Intrade 83% on 538)
- Georgia (Chambliss 65% on Intrade,. 77% on 538)

Assuming Lieberman doesn't jump, Democrats now look like they're in good shape to take 5 of the 9 seats necessary to get to 60. They're slightly favored in 3 more. Mississippi looks like it's going to be the Democrats best shot to 60. Although if I had to throw a guess, sweeping MS, AK, OR and MN is probably a 1 in 15 shot.

I now see the Dem's picking up, in order of likeliness...

Virginia
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Colorado
North Carolina
Oregon
Minnesota
Alaska

And here are the ones tilting Republican ever so slightly in order of possibility of flipping to the Democrats...

Georgia
Mississippi-B
Kentucky

I haven't been following North Carolina much, but I'm pretty surprised to see Dole in that much trouble. Last I looked I thought that she was still a slight favorite.

Most Republicans think she has already lost. Obama's coatails will likely carry her to victory even if Obama does not win NC.

I plan on voting for Martin over Chambliss in GA, but man, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pissed me off yesterday.

The DSCC just put out a commercial railing against Chambliss for supporting the Fair Tax. The ad says that he wants to raise taxes 23% and then lists things like movie tickets and groceries, and how much more they would cost. Of course, it doesn't mention that the 23% (or 30%, depending on how you do the math) is not on top of current taxes, but rather replaces income taxes and all that jazz.

Regardless of what one thinks about the Fair Tax (I am only just educating myself on it now, even though I have heard about it for years), this ad is extremely dishonest, moreso than most that I have seen. It really disappoints me as someone who typically supports Democrats. The DSCC is basically lying in this ad.

It's the one labeled "Cha-Ching":

http://www.dscc.org/video

uhh the fair tax is just another way of spreading the wealth around...
from the poor to the rich, who spend alot less on consumption

you really want tax policies endorsed by bush and cheneys economic team?

Is 60 really all that important?

How often is voting perfectly down party lines? How many bills will have 100% support among democrats and the two independents? The caucus was very important in turning 50+1/50 into 49/51 but I don't see why getting to precisely 60 matters that much since some Republicans will likely support some majority legislation and some democrats will not.