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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

06-25-2016 , 01:42 PM
This is amazing.

Daily Mail runs an article on effects of Brexit, readers seem surprised that some actual bad things will happen. comments are gold.

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/art...d--Z1772TI4aNW
06-25-2016 , 01:43 PM
Can Norway trade easily with whoever it wants outside the EU, without EU directives dictating what they can do and charge?

It might be an idea for a 5 year transition period I suppose, until the other trade links are forged...

I think Boris could sell that '5 year plan' to the electorate.
06-25-2016 , 01:44 PM
Yea when comparing UK and EU people forget UK is a single country and the EU is an aggregated economy.

Also worth remembering that Germany has 1.4T trade surplus, so can absorb the micro shock of any dip in exports to the UK.
06-25-2016 , 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by superslug
In my experience British expats are the worst at intergrating into their host cultures.

Unless banging local prostitutes counts.
this is sooo true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Who will negotiate for the UK?

"The BBC has been told there could be as few as a dozen experienced trade negotiators in Whitehall and the challenge may dominate Parliament for a decade...For years the UK didn't need them as the job was done in the EU. Now hundreds are required."
im laughing at the idea of the uk getting screwed in all of its future trade deals because they literally dont have anyone who knows what theyre doing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT
wtf are you guys on about. The tariffs won't be high, the volume will remain highish. The question is, at what price. IMO, not much will change, the UK will have a deal that's like Norway's. They'll pay their fee to the EU, comply with EU regulations, allow free capital/workers movement, maybe agree to take in migrants etc.. but won't have a seat at table when it comes to decision.
sounds like a great dealBrexit Referendum
06-25-2016 , 01:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by richdog
i don't buy that a trade deal can't be agreed in 2 years.
Art.50 negotiations are not a trade deal, and no new trade deal gets settled in two years. The only survivable deal would be the Norway option, allowing continued access to the single market with free movement of labour, which would be exactly like belonging to the EU but without the rebate or any of the goodies like, say, academic grants or, f'rinstance, the agricultural subsidies and regional subsidies being paid to the Leave fascists in places like Wales and Cornwall, which the UK government couldn't manage on its own, and without any say at all in EU policy.

Quote:
Alternatively we could just trade without a deal in place...
At WTO baseline tariffs? Really? Or you could just shoot yourself in the head. Or I could come round and do it for you, if you like.
06-25-2016 , 01:46 PM
So much could be solved if they changed the EU to make it a bit more like the senate in the US. The issue is people believe the EU is undemocratic as they don't know who represents them. It doesnt matter how democratic it is if people don't believe it.

Hopefully Brexit can deliver and galvanise that change....
06-25-2016 , 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JacktheDumb
Yeah there will be a trade deal, but it will take years for it to be forged and the UK does not have any leverage. The EU can dictate the conditions towards way smaller powers... like the UK
As a net importer of goods and one of the largest trading nations on the world we should perhaps look for our own trade deals with USA, Japan, China, Australia etc.

Swap German cars for Japanese or American, start buying Australian wine, American beers there is no requirement to buy stuff from europe.

In fact we should buy more british goods - stop the insane EU farming policies (there is a golf course right next to my home which is basically a strip of land with a few holes in it where the farmer is getting paid NOT to grow crops) and grow our own food.

Maybe you're right, the EU project is doomed to fail and will certainly crack if the current number of refugees/immigrants continue so we should look to use this opportunity to form our own global trade deals. The world is far bigger than the EU after all.
06-25-2016 , 01:52 PM
Germany would be more than happy to take over UK's car exports, to rest of Europe.

They'll take the banks in Frankfurt too.
06-25-2016 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor Zeus
So much could be solved if they changed the EU to make it a bit more like the senate in the US. The issue is people believe the EU is undemocratic as they don't know who represents them. It doesnt matter how democratic it is if people don't believe it.

Hopefully Brexit can deliver and galvanise that change....
That's an interesting point. If people in Europe actually elected a president (or the 3 ****ing presidents of the EU, lol), they might actually feel they have a stake in it more.
06-25-2016 , 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
Can Norway trade easily with whoever it wants outside the EU, without EU directives dictating what they can do and charge?

It might be an idea for a 5 year transition period I suppose, until the other trade links are forged...

I think Boris could sell that '5 year plan' to the electorate.
I think maybe you should have considered how the EU would react to your plan before voting.
Or maybe just stayed in bed on Thursday.
06-25-2016 , 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor Zeus
So much could be solved if they changed the EU to make it a bit more like the senate in the US.
No it couldn't. There is a reason why no country anywhere on earth has followed the US constitutional model.

And we don't want more guns, either.
06-25-2016 , 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
Can Norway trade easily with whoever it wants outside the EU, without EU directives dictating what they can do and charge?

It might be an idea for a 5 year transition period I suppose, until the other trade links are forged...

I think Boris could sell that '5 year plan' to the electorate.
Norway is an EU member in all but name.. and ability to vote.

So your aspirations are for UK to get what they had before... only without the ability to influence policy?
06-25-2016 , 01:55 PM
We can always give Cameron a job negotiating. He is ace at it.
06-25-2016 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 57 On Red
No it couldn't. There is a reason why no country anywhere on earth has followed the US constitutional model.

And we don't want more guns, either.
No other country in the world is as federalist.

If central government was just trade, borders, army and some development cash there's no need to make a parliamentary model. Senate and presidential just works
06-25-2016 , 01:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsfan09
Nope because some of exports would be redirected to satisfy the demand which was met by UK imports earlier. So if the UK cant export cars to europe anymore and vice versa then people would have to buy other cars. Its just a oversimplication because its much more complex than that.
Just for the protocol. Germans dont buy british cars.
06-25-2016 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
I voted Leave...
Then it's all your fault.
06-25-2016 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by richdog
EU is preparing a trade deal with USA - no free movement will be included as part of that deal.

It is incorrect to say we cannot get a trade deal without allowing free movement. I imagine an agreement will be made with tariffs of 0.0000001% so the EU can save face.

Whilst politicians may talk about 'punishing' the UK the average worker in i.e Germany won't be happy to hear he's losing his job because exports to the UK are now being taxed and demand has gone down.
UK can have a deal with the UE (import/export). But ofc without free movement. UK citizens must apply to go on vacations to UE, to work in german - ofc can´t just go work to german like with a tourism visa (that will be considered illegal migration) per ex, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
WaPo: The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ign_type=Email

This is frigging amazing. Mob rule Democracy in action right there.
Yes, it´s funny, that´s why i talk about referendums about sensitive stuff yesterday...

Quote:
Originally Posted by richdog
As a net importer of goods and one of the largest trading nations on the world we should perhaps look for our own trade deals with USA, Japan, China, Australia etc.

Swap German cars for Japanese or American, start buying Australian wine, American beers there is no requirement to buy stuff from europe.

In fact we should buy more british goods - stop the insane EU farming policies (there is a golf course right next to my home which is basically a strip of land with a few holes in it where the farmer is getting paid NOT to grow crops) and grow our own food.

Maybe you're right, the EU project is doomed to fail and will certainly crack if the current number of refugees/immigrants continue so we should look to use this opportunity to form our own global trade deals. The world is far bigger than the EU after all.
Portuguese wine is better
06-25-2016 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 57 On Red
Art.50 negotiations are not a trade deal, and no new trade deal gets settled in two years. The only survivable deal would be the Norway option, allowing continued access to the single market with free movement of labour, which would be exactly like belonging to the EU but without the rebate or any of the goodies like, say, academic grants or, f'rinstance, the agricultural subsidies and regional subsidies being paid to the Leave fascists in places like Wales and Cornwall, which the UK government couldn't manage on its own, and without any say at all in EU policy.



At WTO baseline tariffs? Really? Or you could just shoot yourself in the head. Or I could come round and do it for you, if you like.
You do understand that before Norway there was no Norway type deal yeah?
Before Brexit there was no UK type deal but there will be after it.
You're very naive if you think what Norway has is all that can be agreed.

Next you'll be telling me that the EU is stronger and better off without the UK being in it...........

And of course trade deals can be agreed within 2 years, nonsense to suggest otherwise.
06-25-2016 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by richdog
As a net importer of goods and one of the largest trading nations on the world we should perhaps look for our own trade deals with USA, Japan, China, Australia etc.

Swap German cars for Japanese or American, start buying Australian wine, American beers there is no requirement to buy stuff from europe.

In fact we should buy more british goods - stop the insane EU farming policies (there is a golf course right next to my home which is basically a strip of land with a few holes in it where the farmer is getting paid NOT to grow crops) and grow our own food.

Maybe you're right, the EU project is doomed to fail and will certainly crack if the current number of refugees/immigrants continue so we should look to use this opportunity to form our own global trade deals. The world is far bigger than the EU after all.
You realize that UK citizens can already buy these goods? With tariffs they might be forced to buy goods which are now cheaper from other nations or british goods. But if customer want's a Porsche he wont just settle for a japanese car.
06-25-2016 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by richdog
Next you'll be telling me that the EU is stronger and better off without the UK being in it...........
That is a view held in some quarters, i.e. the most enthusiastic proponent of unrestricted capitalism has left the room.
06-25-2016 , 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 57 On Red
Art.50 negotiations are not a trade deal, and no new trade deal gets settled in two years. The only survivable deal would be the Norway option, allowing continued access to the single market with free movement of labour, which would be exactly like belonging to the EU but without the rebate or any of the goodies like, say, academic grants or, f'rinstance, the agricultural subsidies and regional subsidies being paid to the Leave fascists in places like Wales and Cornwall, which the UK government couldn't manage on its own, and without any say at all in EU policy.
As someone who is still in the EU i think this is a great deal for us. The UK pays their fees but we wont have to listen to their bull****. Really looking forward to it.
06-25-2016 , 02:11 PM
Labour MP David Lammy:

06-25-2016 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor Zeus
So much could be solved if they changed the EU to make it a bit more like the senate in the US. The issue is people believe the EU is undemocratic as they don't know who represents them. It doesnt matter how democratic it is if people don't believe it.

Hopefully Brexit can deliver and galvanise that change....
Do you know anything about US politics?

There was just a mass shooting and 92% of the population is in favour of better gun controll, like vendors not beeing able to sell guns without a background check via the internet. They werent able to pass that law.
06-25-2016 , 02:13 PM
UK chickening out? LOL, if this happens, brits will take france's spot at the most loled country.
06-25-2016 , 02:13 PM
Norway's trade deal took 10 years to negotiate (5?) depending on when you want to start the clock.

NAFTA negotiations took 2-4 years to start taking effect. And that's considered record time with only 3 countries.

TPP took started in 2008 (?) and that's expanding existing agreements instead of coming up with new ones. And it's still not in force in 2016.

2 years for a comprehensive (new) trade deal is nothing more than a pipe dream. Not unless you guys just copy paste the EU agreement and delete the part where UK gets to vote in the EU.

UK, if it (or the EU) invokes Chap 50 is going to default to WTO rules for most things. Which basically means following all EU regulations (because, let's face it, no major UK manufacturer will bother producing goods that don't meet EU standards) and paying tariffs.

      
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