I stand corrected.

UK is still more dependent on the EU than EU is on UK, if for no other reason than UK is much more dependent on trade.

The EU doesn't have any choice. 2 years after article 50, UK is out and WTO tariffs are imposed and UK financial services firms are excluded. Even if there was a will there is simply no chance of a trade deal being negotiated/agreed/ratified (by all 27 countries) in the relevant time-frame.

And on the point of import exports - EU exports to UK are much much less in % of trade terms.

Habs- I'm sorry some countries aren't doing well. I'm sorry some eastern euro countries are basically living in "poverty".

But to think they are entitled to run away from their problems in this day and age is absurd. There is no modern day Hitler in your country, there is no mass genocide in your country.

There are problems that need to be fixed. Problems that have solutions. Problems that could be fixed except people are feeling entitled and demand the right to flee their country to essentially make more money / avoid the financial and social problems of their country instead of fixing them. They feel entitled to results NOW without the hard work.

The EU is nothing more than a superstate. The uk obviously got tired of supporting the mass diaspora of unskilled, uneducated eastern euros at the rate of 500,000 per year who felt entitled.

That's what it boiled down to.

Was it the best decision? I don't know time will tell. But you have to give the uk props for going with what they believe in instead of following the status quo

Oh. I thought you were describing the USA.

Well, the UK leaving the EU will mean that the youth unemployment rate in the UK will go up. So for some it might be the sky falling.

Who will negotiate for the UK?

"The BBC has been told there could be as few as a dozen experienced trade negotiators in Whitehall and the challenge may dominate Parliament for a decade...For years the UK didn't need them as the job was done in the EU. Now hundreds are required."

Since Germany is the biggest export nation to the UK it would hit us hardest but yet we have the strongest economy to survive this cut.

From 2014: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profil.../#Destinations

So if we assume that all Import/export would cease between the UK and Germany the EU would still only lose 7bn.I would pay the price because that would be the price we have to pay to keep the EU together which serves multiple purposes like peace in Europe. But its not just peace. To tackle the huge challenges ahead its better when we fight together. If the EU breaks up a lot of European nations would become cue balls of the rich nations. For example Japan is paying small nations money to get votes to get the ban on whaling reversed. Dont see how that will be good for this planet.


There will new jobs be created since we have to satisfy the demand which was served by UK imports. So maybe some other countries will have more growth in the future.

So the unskilled and uneducated eastern europeans are good enough to work in the health care system? Get a clue. I am not even from Eastern Europe. When you talk about entitlement how about the UK spends the 190mio each week to rebuild Iraq and Syria? You arent allowed to talk about entitlement if you burn the world and dont want to clean up the mess afterwards.
Lets be even more drastic. If the guarantee to Poland in 1939 wouldn't have been just words maybe a lot of Eastern Europe wouldn't have had to suffer 45 years behind the Iron curtain.

i don't buy that a trade deal can't be agreed in 2 years. Alternatively we could just trade without a deal in place, like what EU and USA currently does.

Yes, EU exports to UK are a much lower % in overall terms but lets be clear that the exports primarily come from a few countries

Germany - UK is no. 3 importer and no.2 on the trade balance

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigu...ublicationFile


Putting tariffs in place and reducing one of the few strong economies in the eurozone would seem like madness.

The trade imbalance is 51B Euros per year. I'm not convinced Germany could so easily shrug that off.

Nope because some of exports would be redirected to satisfy the demand which was met by UK imports earlier. So if the UK cant export cars to europe anymore and vice versa then people would have to buy other cars. Its just a oversimplication because its much more complex than that.

What's the environmental impact going to be? Greenpeace (and others I'm sure) are warning about a fracking boom in the UK now as most of the regulations preventing it have come from the EU.

Also, integration of the electrical infrastructure across Europe is a pretty vital part of moving towards renewables.

wtf are you guys on about. The tariffs won't be high, the volume will remain highish. The question is, at what price. IMO, not much will change, the UK will have a deal that's like Norway's. They'll pay their fee to the EU, comply with EU regulations, allow free capital/workers movement, maybe agree to take in migrants etc.. but won't have a seat at table when it comes to decision.

The 51B figure is already net of any UK imports so the above is wrong.

i.e Germany exports 100B worth of cars to UK
UK exports 49B worth of cars to Germany (dreaming I know)

You still have a 51B trade imbalance and Germany would be 51B worse off each year if you cancelled all UK/Germany trade.

Like I said before, numbers that large can't just be shrugged off.

So, Angela says there's no rush and 'no need to be nasty.' When Angela speaks, it doesn't really matter what Juncker or Schulz or anybody else says, and she has probably been in touch with Cameron. The 'no rush' thing means that Art.50 has not been triggered, and Cameron has said that he is not going to do it, he's going to stick around for several months and his successor will have to do it. ('So, Boris, we'll just lock you in the study with a poisoned chalice and a Luger, and it's your choice.') So there's a pause, and Angela stresses that meanwhile the UK is still a full member of the EU.

https://next.ft.com/content/60678b42...6-a4a71e8140b0

This does not mean that Leave get what they want. What they want is impossible. Johnson has already rowed back from any idea of restricting immigration.

I'll say this again as you didn't seem to grasp it the first time. 2 years after article 50 the UK is out. When they are out they face tariffs and possible non-tariff barriers on WTO terms. You do know that there are tariffs on US exports to the EU? And in any case WTO doesn't cover financial services. When they all go, I would guess that the tax hit to the treasury will be bigger than the 2008 crash. I genuinely think there is a non-zero chance that the IMF will be doing a bailout/austerity package in the UK before the decade is out.

Would be a complete disaster for the leave campaign if they'd end up with a Norway deal with free movement and all regulations.

Yeah there will be a trade deal, but it will take years for it to be forged and the UK does not have any leverage. The EU can dictate the conditions towards way smaller powers... like the UK

I voted Leave, mainly because I believe the disconnected bureaucracy of the EU is profoundly undemocratic. It's okay to put up with in good times, but once it starts to work for itself when times get tough, like seems to be the case for most of southern Europe, it's an unaccountable dictat. People do not understand there's a point when power-groups stop working for their original intention and start working to keep and gather more power. Only the threat of frequent elections keeps this in check imo.

I get annoyed when communities (such as in Wales and parts of Yorkshire) seem to be supported by the EU rather than their own country - and our own politicians should be held accountable and responsible for supporting our own people...

I feel pretty bad about what hell will be unleashed by this result on the UK, but every time I see those unelected ****s Juncker and Tusk pronouncing on things like they have been ordained to make decisions, I feel better for it. I'm of the opinion better to take the few years of pain now and hope that we can properly forge deals throughout the world - and better still, start learning to develop our own people better with training and better education - than be shackled to the behemoth, sinking EU. I know it's a naive hope, but it's better than the grim future of more and more immigrants coming in without decent provision, allowing big business to keep wages as low as possible and avoid training people here already, whilst leaching people from elsewhere that have taken time and resources to train and educate in their own countries (and I know some of these things are direct government issues, but making our own politicians clearly and plainly directly responsible by not having the out that it's all down to the EU, I hope that might change things for the better for the working and lower middle class).

It's bad, but it could be worse. We could be Scotland in 5 years, shackled to the EU for a few years and profoundly paupered because all the skilled people have gone off to Germany, surviving on what the EU doles out - whilst the EU slowly loses its way in the world markets...

I understand the issue.
There are also "good" regulations about safety and so on, and in general some protection about consumers rights and so on and on. That´s good to push some "lazy" countries. Like this per ex. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conte...LEX:31999L0044 ( dir. 1999/44/CE), workers rights, etc.
And the European court of human rights and the ECJ it´s also good.

btw found random on google, searching for other thing ( this is not the place to talk about this stuff). But brexit it´s about... lots of stuff. There are also good regulations and protection on human rights, not only "crap".

http://wire.novaramedia.com/2016/03/...-human-rights/

*
Add:

Per ex. im my place without the transposition of that directive we had a crap protection on warranties of products... just based in general civil law theory (and in malice, etc).

Or.. as usual the waiting for like 10-15 years of a decision of court, state have been condemned lots of times by E.Court, and i thing that is FINE.

I also appreciate a vote to leave may well lead to the UK forming 'trade-links' with Russia etc, and in 10 years be renamed Airstrip One, and, you know, Freedom is Slavery.

Why would the EU start negotiations before article 50 was invoked?

Doing a Norway is possible but highly unlikely.

Tarrifs are not blanket, they will be targeted. The question being asked by the EU negotiators will be what do Europeans want to produce and what to they want to buy?
They have an interest in putting import taxes on financial transactions. They have no interest in putting one on whiskey.
Further, if we start disregarding Brussels rules e.g. safety on vacuum cleaners etc.,andgain competitive advantage, of course they should put on tarrifs.

Each individual nation in the EU relies on the UK less than the UK relies on the EU nations.

EU already ruled out any negotiations before article 50 is invoked.