Quote:
Originally Posted by davmcg
You can dream as much as you like, but the UK won't get access to the single market without free movement. Maybe some sort of deal on goods will be agreed in 10 years or so, but the damage will be done by then in terms of job losses.
Just in case you missed the point, the two years article 50 negotiation is nothing to do with trade, just the legal consequences of leaving. When that two years ends (unless every EU state agrees to an extension) the EU will impose tariffs, British exports will lie in customs sheds in Calais and Antwerp awaiting inspection and financial services companies will be required to relocate to the EU - it is certain that the preparations for that have already begun.
The UK doesn't even have a trade department to negotiate trade agreements.
Everyone has an opinion and you may turn out to be correct. Or you may be wrong.
Eurozone has one of the worst economic growth rates around and its has large unemployment too. Explain to me how stopping exports to the UK (by adding tariffs) is going to help the eurozone and the people working within it?
The EU may very well sign it's own demise by 'punishing' the UK.
At the end of the day I predict either:
1) The collapse of the EU project in it's current form
2) A trade agreement with the UK with the most tiny of tariffs (to save face) and access to the EU market with some kind of exemption for the banks to carry on. There will be restrictions on UK citizens working in the EU just as for non-member states, although those currently abroad will be exempted.