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Originally Posted by chezlaw
Yay. politics live finally brought up the point that it's an international treaty that can always be broken unilaterally if a country decides to do so (with consequences of course).
A backstop no-one want, that no-one will ever be stuck in, that we absolutely can't leave unilaterally unless that is, we decide to. Bollocks on top of bollocks
No, it can't be broken unilaterally and, in the event of Brexit, it will happen.
Here's the thing. May's 'deal' is not a deal, it's a deferred No Deal. It's an eighteen-month Withdrawal Agreement, with a once-only option (at a cost to be dictated) to extend for two years, up to 2022.
That is nothing like long enough to conclude a free-trade deal and get it ratified by the 27, including those pesky Belgian regional parliaments. Nothing like long enough. Remember how long Canada took, and that deal doesn't even include services, which account for 80% of the UK economy.
After 2022, the backstop will apply indefinitely. And the backstop is 'No Deal except for Northern Ireland, which will maintain regulatory alignment with the EU.' This is laid down by the EU and the UK will have no choice in the matter.
As for No Deal or 'WTO rules' as Brexitards prefer, this is what a pro-Leave site pointed out all of eighteen months ago.
http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blo...s9eTz74nTWYNpU
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One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected.
And remember, May's deal is just a deferred No Deal (because she's psychologically incapable of anything but kicking the can down the road), which means catastrophe, and it appears that Parliament won't wear it.
We'll find out on Tuesday. If it fails, then there is literally no option but to Remain, because there is no question that could be put on the ballot paper for a referendum. You can't go to the country with a proposal rejected by Parliament.
And at 0900 CET (0800 GMT) on Monday, before Tuesday's 'meaningful vote' in the Commons, the ECJ will publish their definitive ruling on the revocation of Art.50.
Last edited by 57 On Red; 12-06-2018 at 02:56 PM.