whichever option comes 3rd is eliminated and the 2nd preferences count in a run off.

Or weighted votes and simply total them. So 2 (or maybe 3) points for your 1st preference, 1 point for your second. Add em all see who wins.

Also worth pointing out that there are many areas where there has been substantial immigration and house prices have stagnated or fallen in real terms since 2008.

Its mostly in the South East and a few other regions where there has been some growth since 2008.

bitter, that was a poll of two options that Leave may well win if it were rerun in a referendum.

But as every public figure advocating a second referendum is doing it on the premise that it will contain more than those two options, your poll doesn't tell us much about how a referendum would play out.

You're forgetting those who want Norway or Canada type deals.


One poll of head to heads among your three options showed rock/paper/scissors:

Remain > May deal
May deal > No deal
No deal > Remain

so Lord Chezzington's single trip to the polls is a far better idea than a further head to head referendum between top two (a la French Presidency).

Lord Chezzington of SMP would also like to draw your attention to the impossibility of doing this fairly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%...bility_theorem

The second choice will thoroughly win unless remain gets > 50%. And the second choice is clearly May's deal... rendering a ref useless as a tool for resolution unless you are a remainer and hope to ONE TIME it...

I'll illustrate with a rough mathematical model (very rough, I'll admit, with gross assumptions)

Example:
2 points for 1st choice, 1 point for second

Group 1 31%: Will vote no deal, vote may deal as second choice
31% vote no deal = 31x2 == 62 for no deal
69% second vote 69 == may deal


Group 2:20% will vote may deal, then 50/50 on no deal/remain
20% vote 20x2 = 40 for May Deal
40% vote no deal = 40 for no deal
40% vote remain = 40 for remain

Group 3: 49% for remain, vote may deal as second choice
49% for remain == 49x2 = 98 for remain
51 for May deal = 51 for May deal

No deal = 62 + 40 = 102
May Deal = 69+ 40 + 51 = 158
Remain = 40 + 98 = 138

My caveman modelling antics are dwarved by Lord Chezzington. I am not worthy.

I just realised, in that model, remain could get well over 50% and still be behind May's deal. Which shows what a bad idea a 3+ way ref is...

I wasn't aware of that but I thought it was probably the case due to the preponderance of voting systems in multi-ways. We don't need a perfect system, just one which doesn't leave people with a bitter taste in their mouth that they've been conned.

Do we get another ref after the trade relationship is negotiaited.

Having the ref now when we dont even know the trading relationship seems dumb, if one of the options is May's Deal (deal is only ~40% done).

This is one of the biggest gripes i have with May's deal.

To agree the legal framework up front that wouldn't be agreed if yet to be agreed trade deal details aren't agreeable should never have been agreed.

I actually like the idea of a ref on deal/no deal at the end of the transition period, once a lot of the final trading deal has been negotiated. If EU are being dicks, then they know a no deal is much more likely, and will maybe be less dickish.

And, yep, excellent point

Or having got past the first part of this mess we could realise that this complicated stuff is best left to general elections, parliament and a representative democracy.

Bring down May's government, have a 2nd referendum and then have a GE. That's what a majority in parliament should form behind.

The problem with that as you know is that GE's aren't fought on single issues.

When an elected government does something we don't like we can vote it out and hope that the new government takes note and undoes the bad changes, but I'm not sure that applies to trade deals etc.

Although I would be happy to fully remain at this point, any 2nd referendum cannot include the choice to remain. What would happen if the result is 48% leave and 52% stay, in other words the reverse of the original vote? Will we have "best of 3" or will that be it? And if it is it, why should it be, the remainers wouldn't accept a leave vote, why should the leavers accept a remain vote with the same slim majority?

A vote asking to choose between whatever deal is on the table at that point or a no deal exit would work I think.

That's fine. they shouldn't be.

The idea that we're going to decide on a trade deal by referendum is a joke. There's a gazillion options and a degree of being informed that's impossible. If that's the route we decide to go then we have to leave it to our parliament to negotiate.

It's pretty obvious that the electorate has changed its mind and/or in its composition, so the latest result stands obviously.

So in 5 years, the composition would have changed yet again. So do we get another referendum then?

Yes I'm not in favour of another referendum on something as technical as trade deals. God knows not many people considered the Irish border back in June 2016.

We would be having a second referendum because a) the population can be considered to be far more clued up now than we were 30 months ago and therefore can be considered to be better able to make a good decision that's in their best interests, and b) as no explicit leave option was expressed, it's reasonable to assume (as the polls in fact show) that many who voted leave would prefer remain to May deal (and some would prefer No deal to Remain).

The issue of change in composition of the electorate is interesting though not on its own sufficient to compel a new referendum, as you say.

There's no chance of that and it doesn't really make sense.

The deal is leaving. Arguably the choice is between that or deciding to reject the best form of leave that our government could come up with i.e remain.

In practice I think we have to compromise and allow the no-deal option - but it has to be well defined.

We live in a democracy. All you have to do is get enough electoral support for another referendum and you will get it.

Moreover that’s exactly what he was advocating for if the uk had stayed in the Eu.

If I had any choice in the matter, I'd like a referendum on EU membership at regular intervals whatever.

The deal is to take whatever the EU wants to give us as the price to finally escape, or be bound to it in perpetuity. You're being wilfully disingenuous again.