The UK are the ones who least want the political bit's that Wallonia (and many others) don't want either.

It is about sovereignty.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...e_iOSApp_Other

On my mobile so can't link properly but the authors opinion is...


To see how debased the notion of free trade has become, look at the deal between Canada and the EU that is currently being voted through Europe’s parliaments. It’s called the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta), and the fact that you can see it at all is largely down to leaks of the documents, which forced the European commission to publish,. That is after the negotiations were conducted for five years in secret, with even the directives kept hidden from the hundreds of millions of citizens affected.

This is no minor technical work. Provided it is passed in time, Ceta will apply to Britain too – and parts of it will affect Britons’ lives even after we’ve “taken back control”. It has been billed as “a backdoor for TTIP”, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which collapsed this summer amid public opposition both in Europe and the US. Like TTIP, Ceta includes the investor-state dispute settlement system – which hands big business the power to sue governments, including for profits they haven’t made yet. A US multinational with an office in Canada (nearly all of them) will be able to sue Britons for bringing in laws that lose them money. This was the mechanism tobacco giant Philip Morris used to sue Australia’s government for bringing in plain packaging. On that occasion, Big Tobacco was unsuccessful – but it took four years of expensive legal battle.

Free trade used to be about tackling protectionism; now it’s about protecting big business – against the public. If populists take a complex situation, offer a simple answer and warn any dissenters of gruesome consequences, then the free-traders are guilty of populism too. With Ceta or TTIP, it goes like this: if this deal goes through, then economies will grow, jobs will appear, and a rising tide will lift all boats, from super-yacht to rubber dinghy. That is pretty much what mainstream politicians of Europe – both left and right – and their officials are saying about the deal with Canada.

In economic history, never mind that the biggest winners – whether the US in the early 1900s or China now – are those who break the free trade rules. Never mind that the actual forecasts for Ceta show the gains will be relatively meagre. Never mind that the studies cited don’t bother to look at who wins and loses, and by how much.

Most of all, ignore their shared assumption that after any deal the affected economies undergo a short, sharp shock before bouncing back. Anyone who has lived through the past eight years has heard that one before. After the financial crisis, the Bank of England and Treasury both kept forecasting a return to normal – and they kept getting it wrong. Eight years on, that bounceback hasn’t materialised. British workers are still not paid as much after inflation as they were when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

That assumption’s lack of substance is called a “dirty little secret” by two independent economists, Pierre Kohler and Servaas Storm, in a recent paper scrutinising the likely effects of Ceta. As they say, it presumes that laid-off workers “will rapidly find new jobs” – whatever the industry, however far away the employer. A car engineer can up sticks and turn into a software engineer. And if there aren’t any actual jobs, they can deliver takeaways for Deliveroo.

The assumptions are both laughably far-fetched and, in the cost citizens are expected to bear, disgusting. No wonder the EU would rather there was as little public discussion as possible.

Using a model employed by the UN, Kohler and Storm found that the benefits of Ceta become microscopic next to the costs. For at least the first seven years after the agreement is brought in, unemployment will rise, wages will fall and economies will see their growth rates decline. Governments will lose revenue, and so increase austerity.

The burden will fall hardest on the poorest, the lowest-skilled, older people and those with disabilities. A senior lecturer at Delft University of Technology, Storm summed up for me the consequences: “The weaker your position in an economy, the more strongly you’ll feel the fall-out.” These aren’t people and regions who are left behind: they’ve been chucked off the train by their own governments. This is the settlement free-traders, left and right, are fighting to impose on voters. Is it any wonder the voters keep plumping for alternatives – no matter how reprehensible, how ruinous?

I'm more about hating the institutionalized goals of the EU to federalise.

So I like anything that shows them up as near useless or pointless.


Bring on EU v2.

I suspect the EU solution to this is more EU...

Yea, that was my point actually. For years the UK was the strongest force pushing for these trade deals that would have considerable impact on sovereignty. Apparently sovereignty wasn't a major issue for the UK then, but then Brexit came along and your government did a full turn.

And let's not pretend that Wallonia would block this if there was strong support within the remaining EU. With the UK gone from the picture, support for these deals is crumbling.

Fair point.

If the UK was fully comitted there would still be far more political impetus to find a solution. Both from the EU and from Canada. Now Brussels really wants a deal because of how bad this looks for them but who else?

the best bet is that people get bought off and this still ends up happening, but it's utterly embarassing that it even has to come to this.

it seems like a fine deal too and the recent anti-trade populism is silly.

buying the walloons off seems like a terrible precedent tbh

I'm generally in favour f of free trade, but this looks like another piece of neoliberal legislation designed to dramatically increase the powers of multi national companies at the expense of democratically elected governments.

it's probably better than punishing them. but maybe some empty promised is enough or maybe it never happens.

it's certainly not going to make the brexit stuff any easier tho.

I suspect that's overdone but while it would be nice to fully organise the government first it's not fully realistic. Global businesses are massively exploiting the political gaps between countries and deals like CETA/TPIP look the best way forward to me even if they require more PU later.

It's bitter sweet now because CETA would be bad for the brexiting UK while CETA collapsing is a potential disaster for the EU having to handle brexit as well.

Not sure how it went down in the negotiations, but however the EU conducted itself with Canada, Davis Davies and Liam Fox, perhaps two of the most thick politicians around will make them look like Jedi level statesmen.

https://www.ft.com/content/1d98723c-...6-568a43813464

"Ceta debacle heralds a period of disintegration for the EU"

The title isn't exactly a good summary of that article's content, fwiw.

I know, but on the plus side it does suggest the possibility of a more rational EU. Whether the reorganisation turns out to improve the EU and make it less about final federalisation, or just become another 'more EU' solution is what will be most interesting.

It's also fairly negative on the trade deals, or at least the arbitration aspects. Anyway, I thought your post gave a wrong impression to posters who don't have access to the paywalled article.

I agree totally that the EU negotiators are in a different league but Fox and Davies dont really want a deal - doesn't require much intelligence to keep saying 'no' and it's a very strong negotiating position if the EU is coming under internal and external pressure to get a result.

I still wouldn't write off CETA or dismiss all the problems. The whole thing is a horrible mess.

I'm going for a few beers with the dads from my son's class at school next week. It turns out that one of the fathers is the local UKIP councillor, so I'm sure he can tell me how this whole Brexit gig is going to work.

Be sure to ask him when we'll be getting our 350mil for the nhs.

he might be their leader by next week

True. Also don't rile him up to badly you don't want to end up in hospital.

He's not one of those fat-headed northern types that were leathering each other a couple of weeks back. I fancy my chances.

Thumping is the only proven method of getting someone to leave UKIP.

Got just the thing for you.....



Or..

Nissan investing in Sunderland factory. Growth higher than expected, with no sign of recession in near future.


Brexit hasn't exactly gone as the experts foretold then...