I just did a search for "regrexit" - there's nothing on the first page of google since July, except a link to the twitter tag.

On twitter I liked one person's humorous take on "leave means leave"



Meaning 2: "allow or cause to remain".

boomsday

EU member state exporting services to the rest of the EU had growth in services sector. This defies indicators predicated on said member leaving the EU, which did not happen in July.

Source is omitted, but I will assume some ostensibly reputable publication. Boggles the mind how narrative like this gets published.

Also, is the growth measured in £GBP?

wut

sauce is the office of national statistics - ONS

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given the deutche bank fiasco currently unfolding in slow-motion, i wonder if the UK removing itself from being beholden to merkel's anti bailout agenda (which i presume brexit entails) holds some value for banks

I don't think Merkel is against banks bailing each other out.

ou do get the feeling no matter how it goes, good or bad, bremainers will continue to be glass-half-empty types all the way along. Even if it turns out to be 'glass-only-9/10ths-full'.

That goes both ways. Neither side will agree on when Britain actually left and what indicators to use to see if it was a good or bad decision. Brexit voters are already claiming remainers were wrong wven though Britain is still in the EU.

One of the main "indicators" the Remain side were using to decide Britain's path for the next half century or so was whether we would have Boris as PM and Gove as Chancellor for the next four years and that didn't happen.

There are also cases like Siemens which said they would leave (presumably this statement was agreed with if not prompted by head office in Berlin) if Britain left the EU but have now said they were just joshing us.

The punishment budget was also meant to have been implemented by now.

But with those exceptions generally I tend to agree that we need more time for indicators to come through. But if 'the economy' had gone bad then the remain side would be seizing upon these figures and leavers who said "lol, that's cos we are still in the EU" would be laughed off so I also think it's kind of fair game in a debate sense.

I think some of those claims are valid though. Many predictions involved immediate economic catastrophe that just never occurred. And yes, please feel free to give a list of reasons why they didn't occur as your response as a way of avoiding the specific point that that was the overall massive project fear thrust, instead of the orchestrators of the remain campaign giving any decent and reasonable arguments about staying in...

your currency dropping 10% out of nowhere is an immediate economic catastrophe.

The expectation was that article 50 would be invoked almost immediately and part of the predictions were based on that. However I agree remain ran a scare campaign and some of their predictions were ridiculous. But most arguments at the moment are about economic consequences and that brexit isn't so bad which is just stupid because brexit hasn't happened. If they postpone it again then it might never really happen.

domestic markt focused ftse 250 was at ~$19750 a cpl days after brexit, now at ~$23250

note these levels are in $ not £ to control for falling sterling value

this 20% rise is not down to a50 being activated a couple months later than expected. clearly der markt was expecting all sorts of disastrous consequences and it hasn't happened

note: ftse 100 doing even better than the 250 b/c the currency fall was generally helpful for multinationals

those who think well its bound to crash once a50 is activated should go short the 250 and hoover up all that free currency i guess

Of course the stock market has risen: on the 4th August the BoE cut interest rates and announced another round of QE precisely because of fears of a post-Brexit economic slump.

i do not find a .25% rate cut and extra £70bn QE to be a satisfactory explanation for a 20% rise in equities, especially since sterling barely moved on the back of those changes

i think its v plausible that a huge component of that rise was that little to none of the bad news which (i contend) was priced in the morning after the vote has come to pass

Its just generally lol to think stock prices are that linked to the factors of the "real" economy.

Stock prices are influenced by factors in finance.

Its not problems in the factors of the real economy that cause downturns in equities, its precisely the other way round.

The recession in 2008 was caused by finance impacting equities, same with the dot com bubble. Some banking abracadabra causes stocks to tank, and then the real economy tanks.

This is clear now when looking at the total oxymoronic situation in finance in general.

The real economy must be doing great when looking at stocks, coz, geez they are so high and doing so well, but if the economy is doing so well then why are interest rates set to look the economy is totally and utterly ****ed levels?

The sell of over brexit was caused by the general jitteryness in markets, big sell offs and recoveries have been a feature of several markets for a few years now, because regardless of Brexit everyone knows the party in equities is going to end soon and everyone is positioned near the exit, there have been a few false alarms, everyone sees the unsustainable mega party is still rolling and they pile back in.

That jitteryness is caused by everyone knowing that debt levels are just not sustainable and something gotta give, their will be another 2008ish event soon enough, going on cycle we are due something by 2018, and it gona be big and nasty.

Brexit a resounding economical success . Any future troubles can be blamed on Deutsche Bank

How long do you think you will have to hold your long sterling positions?

The FT had an article on a amore amusing aspect of the brexit 'divorce' settlement that I havent seen mentioned before.


https://www.ft.com/content/bb899c94-...a-0c4dce033ade

Cameron sacrificed his political career to save Britain.

You Brexiters owe him a great debt. Now you can pretend you exited and still stay in the EU.

So May says she's pulling the A50 trigger by end of March 2017.

Just to be clear, does the UK fall off the cliff now it's been announced, or the day after in happens?

On the plus side, this gives bremainers plenty of time to come up with reasons the disasters haven't happened when they don't again, so get those thinking caps on. Make them a lot more plausible this time, or everyone will laugh at you again.

Maybe you should ask Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault/Nissan, what he thinks the prospects are for Nissan GB Ltd are, instead:

"The trade association for UK carmakers has backed a warning from the boss of Nissan that Brexit threatens Britain’s vehicle manufacturing industry.

Carlos Ghosn, Nissan’s chief executive, said he could scrap a potential new investment in the UK’s biggest car plant in Sunderland if the government refuses to pledge compensation for any tariffs that may be imposed after Brexit.

Ghosn said: “If I need to make an investment in the next few months and I can’t wait until the end of Brexit, then I have to make a deal with the UK government. If there are tax barriers being established on cars, you have to have a commitment for carmakers who export to Europe that there is some kind of compensation.”

Ghosn’s remarks reflect growing concern among global carmakers that Britain could be heading towards a so-called hard Brexit, which would leave them paying tariffs to export UK-assembled cars to EU markets."

Nissan CEO

On the other hand the UK will be free to 'bribe' Nissan with compensation for tarriffs if they come here.

It will be called something else but I'm too cynical to think it isn't being seriously considered - maybe even being asked for by Ghosn.

I think it's inevitable that happens if tariffs come into being.

I also find it very funny that the right wingers who voted Out effectively voted for some of the measures from 1970s Britain (manufacturing industry subsidised by the state) that they purport to hate so much.

I mean it's pretty clear.

"Disaster" can happen at any time, due to the perceived threat of a bad brexit alone. In many people's opinion, It's more likely to happen after article 50, of course ("The (semi)point of no return" - if you weren't paying attention, every forecast pre-vote assumed this would happen immediately on the Friday, as was promised). Perhaps even more likely after the a50 negotiations are complete, though it could flip-flop all over the place as various rumors surface during negotiations as to who has "won" what. The very idea of that may be enough to seriously slow investment in several sectors.

On the flip side, it's absurd to claim "Brexit was a huge success! See, nothing has gone wrong!" based on statistics from July, 2016. And will continue to be - probably for a decade+, unless UK economic growth goes absolutely amazing. Or the EU tanks and UK doesn't, same effect.

I'm liking how "In the new year" has become "By the end of March", long may this continue.

The thing is that if it works for Nissan then it works for all investment that might go to the EU or the UK.

That could be awesome for our economy and not so great for the EU. EU has to retaliate but that looks hard to do. Everyone needs a deal.

If I didn't hate Brexit so much I would find the whole thing hysterical.