Sports fans are far more reality-based than people who follow politics. Like, even if you're an enormous Cowboys fan and you get all your sports news from online Cowboys forums, you still probably have a realistic understanding that they'll have a tough time against the Patriots. There's probably some inefficiency in the market from people overvaluing their favorite team or w/e, but you really need analytics to take advantage of that.

In politics, you have an audience that's locked into an echo chamber that's dedicated to telling them the most absurd possible lies on TV, radio, and social media. So you have fish who are certain Hillary will lose in a landslide because they read about her Parkinson's problems on Breitbart. And ofc you have Libertarians who think every election is going to be the big breakout year for Libertarianism.

So basically you really can just go with your gut or do something basic like compare 538 with the betting line and beat the game.

I guess so, but only of the most rudimentary sort. I guess my point is what Trolly just said. Some of this stuff seems so soft that it can be beat without building a sophisticated model from the ground up that is completely independent of publicly available models.

As for softness, I had no money on Intrade last time around, but I remember that the market seemed completely off in the immediate period after Romney "won" the first debate against Obama.

Romney won that debate Rocco. No need to put it in quotes. Give me and Mittens our one shining moment.

Trump 2.32 in Utah!
Evan McMullin 1.97

am i allowed to make a PI account in my friend's name (with their consent obviously, i don't want to commit fraud) and use my CC to fund their account?

No idea, but you'd be better off asking support

If support tells you it's ok, then the account gets locked 3 weeks from now, you'd have a lot better case to be able to show them where a support rep told you in writing that it was ok, rather than linking them to a 2+2 post where some random guy on the internet told you it would be ok.

fair point

Have a millionaire friend who is a Trumper decide to fire 5k on Trump today at +500ish. I tried to talk him out of it, and ended up booking another 1250 to win 250 and he burned the rest firing the bet. I mean, he can afford the loss, but it's always baffling to me that someone who has the ability to make a million dollars by his mid 30s also believes that the polls are skewed and 'Hillary is done'.

He also gave me +200 on 'any sportsbook is offering Trump at +800 at any time before the polls open', 125 to win 250 there. I think I win if Trump is still down 6-7 the day before election day, but who knows. It's a weird spot and hard to tell what the line is supposed to be there as objectively if nothing changes Trump will be far more than a +800 dog very soon, but political betting markets don't always reflect the true price.

I had have 1.3k to win 650 on Not Trump from pre-debate 1, also added another 600 to win 338 on Clinton + Dems control Senate yesterday, I was very skeptical the Ds could take the Senate until about a week ago but NH and NV seem to be improving for Hassan and Cortez Masto, I thought Heck was going to win NV until this week and if the Rs don't pick up NV, the Dems will get the four seats they need since Bayh is effectively still a popular incumbent in Indiana despite taking a term off, Duckworth is a lock in IL, Feingold is a semi-lock in WI and then they just need to win two out of NV, NH, PA, NC, MO and FL - NV, MO and NH are all trending towards the D, PA and NC seem like coinflips (and are both betting flips at the moment) and in FL Rubio isn't safe, but is clearly a favourite. As long as turnout isn't super low the Ds should get home in two of those races I think their floor is 48 now but i'd be shocked if they're below 50 unless turnout is way lower than everyone is expecting.

Missed the boat hard on McMullin. When I first saw someone got +2500 I went to look for it, only to see he had been +700 that day, but was in to +300. Now i'm pretty sure he takes it down as long as the Mormons show up to vote, which they always do.

This might be the best bet this whole election. If nothing crazy happens like a big terrorist attack when the big money starts coming in Trump should easily be over +800 before election day. Getting +200 though is crazy.

i remember with close to 100% accuracy that obama was just below 1.10 on betfair a couple days before the election in 2008 (-1000 in lolyankodds). that corresponds to what was an average of a ~7.5 point lead for obama in the polls

dunno what the bookies had it at, i expect juice took it down to somewhere in the +800 range for mccain

so, assuming the same dynamic is in play you'll need about 8 pts close to election i think. you're prolly no worse than a coinflip

I cannot get a single trump supporter who is 100% sure he's going to blow Hillary out of the water to commit to a bet. Sad!

It's the easiest trick to get them to go away and/or STFU. Just explain the concept of escrow & they think it's rigged!

SwoopAE liked your write up just see it a little different...But to this quote i am surprised that no one took you up on it.

Will Dimes or Heritage be offering election day live wagering (live betting) anyone right off know? This seems like a hell of a fun time if not imo.

I am all in on Trump in several states and Pres will spare you my reasons sure as hell do not want to hear yours but look forward to a fun Tuesday in a few weeks.

what are the limits on politics for (US friendly) online books? i checked Bovada's limits page but it doesn't list anything for politics.

I think 5dimes may have had 1k limit last time I checked but that was weeks ago it might be higher now I have no idea. You could ask their live chat support easily enough.

Pinny limit is 3k but can be re-bet etc. but not US facing. No idea with Bovada as we can't use it in Australia plus I have better options basically everywhere on most lines.

Matchbook and similar exchanges had live brexit betting so I assume they will have the same for the US election with markets being offered until the election is called.

Assuming the status quo remains I think it's a flip that Trump gets above +800, if I had to bet my life on either side of the prop i'd still take my side at evens and i'm getting +200

I do have exchanges counting for my +200 that Trump +800 is available on any book at any point prop, and the day before election day I assume Matchbook and Betfair will have +800 if Hillary gets to -850 at any stage, which she should if she's still leading by about 7 points on election day. I think there's a very good chance Matchbook or Betfair (or maybe a larger book like Pinnacle) is offering Trump +800 by election day and if he totally goes off the rails +1000 is quite possible if he's down 12 points or something which would be about where his floor is I think (although it probably won't go above 11 or so unless the N word video drops). In hindsight I should have gone for Trump gets to +650 at evens, he would have probably gone for that given the line was -6xx/+510 at the time we were discussing and he is/was convinced Trump will steam in and win the election (he was citing the Project Veritas videos/Breitbart type polls are skewed garbage as his sources)

i got some BTC so i could avoid the deposit bonus at some books, but Coinbase won't clear the transaction until Wed. so i'm trying to decide whether i should just eat the deposit fees and bet now, or wait for the BTC to clear and risk odds changing.

is there any reason to think odds will change substantially by this Thursday, outside of normal ups and downs of the news cycle?

didnt think i would be able to get under 80c on any of the clinton/dem/kain/female/etc bets on predicit but was somehow able to get 77c on pence no

occassional gamblor in uk here - anyone finding better than 5-1 on Trump to win??

Deposited some $ on PredictIt assuming I could just Clinton free money it and I see that the presidential election is closed to new action. Is there something I'm missing? (some other contract I can buy on the site, etc)

Will a woman be elected U.S. President in 2016
Who will be elected VP in 2016
Which party will win the 2016 election

You can also keep refreshing, and spots should open up sporadically.

Action remains open on "will a woman be the next president" and "Will kaine be the next VP"

lol i wrote deposit bonus and meant deposit fee, oops. typing is hard

Trump randomly shot up about 8% to win Iowa today to about 52% to win from being a 45% dog and didn't move noticeably in any other state.

I'm assuming the early voting numbers are looking favorable to him there.

Over a million matched on Trump at Utah without McMullin at 1.20. I guess if the Dems vote smart they vote Mcmullin instead of Dems and then it's a freeroll.