I invite someone to make me an offer to bet that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee as of July 31, 2016, and I will take the side that Hillary Clinton will NOT be the Democratic presidential nominee as of July 31, 2016. Please state your odds and minimum amounts of risk and reward that you are willing to go with.

Trump said today he wants to have California in play. He mentioned NY before. Small chance still, but the comment is worth something.

As for Hillary, I like betting she won't be nominee. Think the market undervalues it. I might even bet that, it also hedges my trump bets.

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No.

What kind of odds are you looking for? I'd consider hedging my Sander's/president bets, but problem is I don't want my money locked up for 2 months for a small payout (+ trust/counterparty issues + hassle). But I'd still consider it if you have an offer + good way of dealing with the above issues.

You'd likely get better odds if you can get money on PredictIt or another exchange than what anyone here will offer (including myself, I'd be looking to lowball it.)

I'd agree that Hillary has been systematically overestimated, but it seems that not many people have been betting on her the last couple of weeks. Odds slipping, tough to get action. Amazing that she was trading at almost -300 for president at one point. Wish I wasn't in U.S. to take advantage of it.

ok I understand

Will Trump and Sanders have a debate before the California primary?

I put it at 16%. Had a reveal with a couple friends which led to a buy against one who had 10% and a sell against one who had 26%.

We'll be doing VP bets next week.

I'm now even shorter Trump to win the presidency. domer are you still confident?

Delusional BernieBros and Republicans who think Hil will be indicted have drastically lowered the price for Hillary winning the Dem primary in CA: currently at .71. This is a snap-buy for free money with a quick turnaround imo. She's still polling at +8, Latinos are rallying around her; Hil is not losing CA.

yeah

the reason Trump is closing the poll gap is because Republicans coalesced around him (altho not as much as past Republican nominees) and Bernie voters are increasingly answering "won't vote" in the TvC polling instead of choosing Hillary. Once Hillary has the nomination, they'll come home and Hillary will be back at a ~5ish point lead.

btw I'd max buy that at 16%, think it is way likelier than that, possibly even 50%.

Bernie rally I went to in Santa Monica (not a heavily Latino city) was at least 50% Latino. The protests of Hillary in LA were not from Bernie supporters, but from Latino groups protesting her support of the coup in Honduras. Bernie rallies all over SoCal and Bernie will win NorCal just like Oregon and Washington. If Hillary wins CA it will be by a very small margin.

I've tried to get anyone to spot me 8, then 6.5 points and no takers. I'll offer 4.5 now.

But what about the lawn signs in your neighborhood?

How much is Hillary going to win by?

I dunno. RCP avg has her at +8 I would discount it to +5 given all the hullaballoo over emails. It's no landslide, but she's objectively a clear favorite. Only real shot for Bernie is if the debate goes through and something incredible happens.

I'm offering (taking) 4.5. This is a gambling site, so I assume you gamble.

Changed my mind on "R landslide" equity. I think an R landslide is bettable now, due to structural weaknesses on the D side. It's not just freak occurrences anymore like major terrorism, jail etc., but also a significant chance that the D support just erodes/collapses.

First, the media is willing to pile on to Clinton now, and put her on the island. Before that didn't seem likely. Second, no matter who of Clinton/Sanders is put up, probably Clinton, there will be many D defectors and significant problems for those candidates. In Clinton's case her numerous scandals. In Bernie's case the fact that he won't be seen necessarily as legitimate, both in the context of % of votes and in the context of being reasonable, but I think it is much, much harder for Trump to landslide vs Bernie. There are now many paths that just leave Trump running vs a potato. In many of those cases states that are never in play and are always +25 for dems could actually be in play.

An analogy would be how Trump won by a "landslide" in the most recent Republican Primary states, because he was basically the only one running. I can see enough % of the time that over the next few months Clinton's situation could go from bad to worse and her name is on the ballot but in reality everyone has known throughout September etc. that she's already lost, and polling is terrible for her. I'm not saying necessarily this is the most probable outcome but that it can be bet profitably. If the bottom falls out and shes polling so far below, it's common psychology people will vote for the winner.

I would also bet any amount of money on 16%, there is no way it is under this imo. I think atleast 50% but I didn't think about it too much. I would feel very very comfortable betting 25%.

I just blew the last of my politics gamblin' money on Predictit buying Hil CA stock. I bet Low Key might take you up, tho.

Hey, if I'm wrong you can still have a good lolTrolly at my expense.

I didn't even mention it when no one believed me about Oregon, until now.

People just don't get that the West Coast is different. I'm not as confident about Cali because SoCal isn't quite right culturally, but CA will be close imo - really I think Bernie will win and I've bet on him, but I'm getting 3 to 1. If I bet 1-1 I'm definitely getting points.

At the risk of tapping the glass, you know that for the general election all the states vote on the same day, right?

daily bump

Microbet worried me about Hilary in CA because he's been picking the west coast well. But OTOH my college age daughter at Berkeley was a Sanders supporter but recently switched to Hilary. So based on that "huge" sample I say Hilary +2 in CA primary. Why did she switch? Something to do with taking a Cal course with Robert Reich where she learned that Sanders economic plans were pure fantasy compared to Hilary's. I personally just want the nomination struggle to end soon one way or another.

Status quo isn't working. Clearly people are fed up and are willing to vote for someone shooting for stars. I doubt anyone in the Bernie or even trump crowds actually believe they will do exactly what they wish to- but they will change things.

It takes aiming high and expecting low to get anything done in a system as ****ed as us politics

Guess Berkeley doesn't teach that course

Robert Reich is a huge Bernie supporter. She must not have liked him.

I've hoped for lots of wins for Bernie, but I'm pretty sure Oregon is the only time I predicted an upset. (Of polling - Bernie was still favored on predictit, and that bet at $.67 iirc has been my biggest predictit bet so far.

And again, I'm not exactly calling CA. 2pt win for Hillary is as likely as anything I think.

Yes, I am talking about numerous polls in Sept show her losing 10, 20 points in swing states and other states.

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