I'm really shocked Cruz dropped out.

I don't want to go into too many details on the mechanics, but PI prices are off sometimes because of their high cashout fees and contract limits.

What might be odd is that Trump coming closer to sealing the nomination is slightly decreasing Hillary's general election odds - despite the fact that betting markets were giving him the lowest odds against her in the general election compared to any of cruz, kasich, rubio, etc. So in that sense, Trump winning should increase her odds (according to the market perception).

Of course, Trump winning early and decisively without convention issues could be seen to make him a bit stronger in the general election.

I feel like he was encouraged to drop out. Not sure why though.

Conspiracy theory time: If Kasich stays in through the rest of the races, is his real intention to help Hillary against Sanders? If the primaries ended, that would free up some independents and Trump supporters to vote against Hillary in open primaries, but if Kasich tags along that won't happen.

He draws so little support hard to see it making any difference.

Even if Trump beats him 80/20 in every state, those are voters that aren't able to influence the democratic side. Tough to say exactly how much of a difference it makes, but you have to imagine there is a non-negligible % of Republicans that would love to vote against Hillary, and the independent vote is slightly split in favoring Sanders/Trump.

Rubio surging in VP odds, 27¢ on PredictIt which is almost double Christie's 14¢.

I think Trump needs to pick a celebrity to really set this thing off.

“@RJinVegas: 100/1 - odds of Donald Trump winning the Republican Nomination one year ago.”

Rubio putting on the Make America Great Again hat would be just incredible

made a bet with someone on whether rubio gives a speech endorsing trump at the convention

i bet on no, he bet yes...gave him 2-1 odds

The surge in VP betting for Rubio is weird. I really can't see him accepting a VP offer even if Trump made one. He is young and has his career to think about, he doesn't have to debase himself like that.

He doesn't really have a career, tho. But I don't think Trump should offer him the spot. Hillary can make dozens of ads with nothing but Rubio calling Trump a con man.

Made all kinds of bets depending on Cruz staying in and sold my Dem MOV >4% shares at the absolute bottom tonight of around 20%. Blah.

Well, looks like Kasich has changed his bizarre decision to stick around. Wondered what inspired that strange choice or his subsequent changing of his mind.

Trump still trading around 94-96%, might be some free interest there for someone who doesn't mind their money being stuck for a couple months.

Can't believe I didn't jump on Kasich dropping out last night. Cruz dropping out didn't move that at all.

It actually moved it a lot I think. I was actually thinking of betting on it at .45, since Cruz was at like 65, so theoretically 1 of those bets was almost certainly profitable.

Then next thing I knew, Cruz was at 99 (dropped out) and Kasich was at 85. But then, based on the fact that Kasich had specifically said last night after the voting was closed that he wasn't dropping out, the line went back to like 75, maybe even a bit less - still much higher than where it was before Cruz dropped out though. Around 99 now of course.

the thing that kills everyone with Predictit is the 5% withdrawal fee, correct? Cause I see lots of spots to middle where I can win 3c, 4c, 2c, guaranteed but that's all at a loss with the 5% withdrawal fee.

They take a 10% fee from the profit of any winning bet or buy/sell you make, and a 5% withdrawal fee.

So if you bet 10 shares at 80 cents and cell those 10 shares for 90 cents, you would make $1.00 - 10% = $.90.

Similarly, if you buy 10 shares at 90 cents, then win when the bet is resolved, again you profit 90 cents.

Then when you decide you're done with predict it and want to withdraw, they take 5% withdrawal fee.

So to answer your question, it wouldn't be profitable to deposit, bet at 95 cents, win, and then withdraw your money. But if you did that multiple times, or made other winning bets, it could become profitable.

So yeah, the fees are pretty high. But the markets aren't always efficient, so it's definitely possible to make a profit.

Also in case it wasn't clear from the above, the 10% fee is only from the amount you win, so it's still profitable to bet on something at 99c if it resolves in your favor (though not very much of course).

NO on GOP win 370 delegates seems cheap at $.80.

It is, but I'm not gonna let my rapidly diminishing roll sit there for months to realize that profit.

Just making sure I'm reading this right:

On Predictit, Hillary is 62%, so you're functionally betting $62 to win $38, which comes out to roughly Hillary -163 on normal betting lines?

Factoring in the 10% vig on wins, you're betting $62 to win $34.2 which is around -181.

yep

Swing state and a House seat markets are up. Apparently they will have weekly markets on Hill-Trump polling and monthly markets on fundraising. Trump is no worse than 35% on any of the swing states.