Quote:
Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb
Regarding the top end of the above, the idea that 1 in 16 African American likely voters is going to change from confirmed Clinton to confirmed Trump because he slightly calms down his rhetoric for the final 10 weeks is absolutely nuts.
In truth, he might not actually be at 1% AA support right now - realistically it's more like 3-5% - but he's not going to get a 6% jump.
Even if he did, it's likely irrelevant anyway in the Electoral College. That wouldn't win him any of the states he was going to lose. He's a lock to lose PA and VA, and that being the case, he has almost no path to 270.
I'd argue that he's done more than slightly calm down his rhetoric toward African-Americans. He's attacked Hillary on pandering to them and claimed his policies are better for them.
When you talk about 1/16, that can be someone who doesn't even like him, but had worked in manufacturing, lost a job and thinks he'll bring it back based on his speeches, so they hold their nose and vote accordingly. This could hold true for a lot of people in that group across all races.
As to whether it would win him a state, that remains to be seen. Gaining 6% of the African-American vote in NC can gain him 1% overall there, he's currently down about 4 to 4.5%, so it's not insignificant.
I fear this pivot will get him FL, GA, NC, AZ, IA... That gets him to 243, and he still needs to turn something or run the table, but it has him within striking range to where a terror attack or a mid-sized scandal could make the difference.