Quote:
Originally Posted by goofball
Dream big!
I mean, his expected EVs has dropped from 207.5 to 181.3 in the 9 days I've been publishing that. Linear extrapolation of that means he gets -75 EVs on electiond day. I think him getting -75 Electoral votes is fairly unlikely, but every model, mine included, has some outcomes of Clinton over 500 electoral votes. Those are obviously right tail outcomes for her, but from an electoral math perspective, that's how it happens, and it's fun to think about.
Good grief!
I guess Hil is going to have 11 more conventions with 4 consecutive days of wall to wall media, to fuel that "linear extrapolation" :-)
I mean a poll today has rump +11% in Texas and the RCP average has Hil +6.3 nationally (down 20% from 2 days ago). That doesn't get near 400 EV let alone 500.
Hil had a 6.8% lead in the RCP polling average on 6/28 and she has a 6.3% lead today after all the 'noise' from the FBI excoriating her but not prosecuting her on the e mail server and both conventions.
The race is amazingly stable and probably will remain that way because they are both two loathsome individuals, Hil is merely less loathsome, but just as dangerous to the republic.