Why do you think you feel that way? That is one bitter, unfair statement to make. No one's making you cheer for the losing, immoral team.

Grunching but hey not pick an actual number? Like I don't know how 312 would work let alone a half electoral vote not existing. I'd go with 307 where she narrowly wins FL and loses NC

Dumbish question re: statistics/polling:

Taking a look at Hillary's firewalls of CO, NM, MI, MN, WI, PA, VA, ME, she is on average an 80% to win each individual state according to 538.

If we don't take correlation into account for the sake of this argument, aren't the odds extremely against her to win them all? Going 8 for 8 on 80% shots is (.8)^8= 16.8%. So shouldn't it be expected for at least one or two of these to go red?

Even if we do factor correlation back in (and I have no idea how to do that accurately), it still doesn't seem like it would jump to over 50%.

I could be totally wrong/not taking certain things into consideration/talking out of my ass, etc.

Thoughts?

LOL at anyone who thinks the GOP is going to start playing nice. Do these people pay attention?

The GOP hates the Clintons, arguably worse than Obama. It is going to be fake scandal after fake scandal, constant obstructionism, cries of the MOST LIBERAL PRESIDENT EVER, lots of references to Bill's sexual escapades, etc. They will give on absolutely nothing. If the Democrats don't take the senate, we could literally end up going an entire presidential term without a single SCOTUS judge getting confirmed. They are going to look at Trump and say "that dumbass almost won, we just need a more polished candidate!"

It is going to get even worse before it gets better. Probably two more presidential cycles.

The math teacher in me would fix these:

#6: 46% or higher ... 43 - 46% ... 43% or lower
#8: 48% or higher ... under 48%

I would also add: Write in the state won by the fewest votes and something about the balance of power in the Senate (D, tie, R).

It isn't apples-to-apples, because Colorado is doing all mail-in-ballots this year I believe, but here's the comparison:

2012 (first result I found, might be able to find more precise numbers):
Dem: 35%
GOP: 37%

2016 (from your link):
Dem: 34.8%
GOP: 35.2%

Those numbers are actually better than they were in 2012, when Obama won the state by 5.3 points. I wouldn't worry too much.

it works the other way too though.

Now that the FBI/email scare is over, with the momentum and superior ground game, and because people like to side with the winner, this can go C+7-8

And I still have some hope that at the last moment in the voting booth, some Republicans might decide to abandon Trump-->C+10

Lol Ben Garrison.

Bill got a bunch of stuff done despite being despised. We will see I suppose. I am still hoping that TPP and Garland can get through during lame duck.
I am an optimist more than asserting I know the future. I think Hillary can work the levers of power and can get the GOP donor class to apply pressure for infrastructure and maybe some progress on immigration.

Or, you know, maybe just block the ones who show a history of legislating from the bench.

Not ALL democrats have cooties.

Make American great again by keeping brown people form voting! Talk about treason.

Obviously voter suppression but Obama coming out and saying that illegals should come out and vote without fear of being deported is just as bad if not worse.

Citation ****ing needed.

if the GOP is still obstructing a SCOTUS vote into 2018, the dems will get the senate back in a heartbeat. it's an easy case to make.

[citation needed]

Wat? You have a link?

This is a ban-worthy lie.

People who are here illegally can't vote. They don't vote.

This entire post is racist garbage.

I see a lot of info wars and breitbart links when searching about this. Do you have any non-wingnut sources?

When you guys say immigration reform, what policies are you hoping to see?

You gotta have some trolling questions sprinkled in; especially since it's a party.

13. Do you support Obamacare? If no, would you support the Affordable Care Act? If you answered "no" to Obamacare, but "yes" to the Affordable Care Act, do you understand that you are an idiot?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfgEvgVC6Qs

considering that even trying to register to vote by mistake when you are not a citizen is a crime and grounds for deportation, i think you are full of ****.

I'm not worried about CO.

there's either large poll fail across the board in drumpf's favour due to shy racists or unexpectedly huge white turnout or something like that which none of the pollsters managed to capture, in which case approximately every one of those states you listed is in play

or there isn't, and approximately none of them are in play

therefore she doesn't need to bink that 80/20 over and over and over in order to win all those states (which as you note she'd be a huge dog to do), she needs to bink it just once

(imo there isn't 20% chance of drumpf-friendly poll fail but w/e ill use the 538 number)