It doesn't seem like he has any plan to get people to vote except his rallies which only reach people already highly likely to vote.

Someone can correct us on that but so much of the nuts and bolts needed to maximize results seem to be non existsant with trump.

By the way on places with heavy trump support I visit there is zero talk about volunteering or encouraging people to vote in any way.

RAISE

he's a yankees fan tho

In fairness I'm in danger of agreeing with both vhawk and Sklansky, you know that point David makes that is often irrelevant that bad arguments are bad arguments regardless then goes on to list a number of arguments that aren't bad? Well attacking homophobia on the grounds that being gay is not a choice is actually a bad argument. But you've covered this already.

It's possible, but it's always been possible, so comparing year-on-year figures is still legitimate. Minus the fact that early voting seems to be getting more popular and you would expect the cannibalisation effect to get larger as that continues. But that doesn't strike me as a large enough factor to be really worth considering.

assuming all dems vote D and all repubs vote R he would need to be winning unaffiliateds by 26 points to be leading right now

not in this lifetime

Wasn't talking about Jersey City, although that's definitely more livable. Property ownership seems to be out of fashion with my 100k per annum JC friends (not a brag, currently making a lot less than that and living in Oklahoma), so probably there's just less demand for condos. Wouldn't view that as a negative necessarily.

a look at this will maybe crystallise the nv thing. if she repeats obama's 100k overall advantage in clark and splits washoe 50/50 then its simply over. look at how much vote is out there in rural areas, its barely 100k total. clark is more than half the state*

and it looks like she's on the way to repeating obama's 100k overall advantage in clark, unless dems are voting R in large numbers or affiliateds are breaking in a way that A) seems extremely unlikely and B) hasn't shown up in the polls

surely rara is trolling by saying "to much" twice.

Totally a crazy aside but the majority of elderly who end up in any variation of retirement or nursing home do so by qualifying for Medicaid. However you can't qualify for Medicaid if you get more than ~2100 a month or ~3000 as a couple. Even worse facilities that should probably be shuttered charge at least $5k a month if you don't qualify for Medicaid. Most are in the 7k - 10k range, monthly.

You can get long term care insurance but the later you wait the more expsensive it will be. This is a situation that will reach crisis levels in the future.

Very few families could afford to pay $70-$80k a year for long term care for one family let alone two. Everyone should pray their parents remain healthy enough that they can live independently or with family as long as possible.

Back on topic

I assumed so but when was the last time a major candidate had zero ground game to get voters to the polls? It just seems like Trump voting has to face a setback on actual Election Day.

So far all I've seen is Trump supporters on highway overpasses jumping up and down like spastics and waiving to passing cars. I usually honk and throw 'em the bird then hope they don't drop a boulder through my windshield as I pass underneath.

Just read somewhere if these numbers hold Trump has to basically have a 10 point swing in the state on election day or no chance at it.

It seems impossible for a candidate to win being so outclassed in organization and being outspent 2 to 1.

look at everyone being 10 days late to the Nevada party, it's cute

Lol

He's got a point.

citation for this btw since no1 else seems to have mentioned it itt:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/05...p=cur&referer=

Better to show up fashionably late than to not show up at all right?

bill mitchell is an absolute must follow this tuesday

And despite all this you still self-identify as a member of the party whose economic platform was the direct cause of the above, and you're going to cast a pointless protest vote for a 3rd party whose economic platform quadruples down on the stupidest parts, because you're gullible enough to believe a literal Russian propaganda campaign.

And I think that somewhere deep down inside you do actually know that a HRC presidency is by far the best option for NJ, and the rest of the country. You can say whatever you want, and even in the privacy of the polling booth you will still succumb to identity politics pressure to never ever ever vote for an icky Democrat. But you DO know she's the better choice, and that you're casting the wrong ballot for stupid reasons.

4 of those states are -400, one is -200

sadly for him he says he won't be placing a bet because all the sportsbook are apparently going to go bankrupt when trump wins

Maybe he meant to say they are tired as that makes more sense than tied.

yeah and this seems even likelier given that only one side has an actual gotv effort that works to get people to vote early. the other side is a mess but they might just have a lot of reliable republican voters that will show up on election day.