Unless I get a reasonable explanation for this, I will no longer refresh 538.

Wednesday, Nov. 2, at 7:04 p.m. EDT
Clinton 67.6%Trump 32.3%

Missouri OCT. 27-NOV. 1 DFM Research
B-
508 LV
38%
47%
3%
Trump +9
Trump +11

Wednesday, Nov. 2, at 6:44 p.m.
Clinton 69.0%Trump 30.9%

Cliffs: 1.4% equity bump from just one B- poll in Missouri?

Obama hit NC vote suppression hard today in his goatish speech at UNC. Good line: if you dont vote you're doing their job without making them work for it. Obama gets some serious love in NC.

GAME 7!

God. Mother. ****ing. Damnit.

I was screwing around with some of the parameters in my model just now (e.g. what if i only use polls from the last 3 days, and so forth) and noticed the parameter that introduces variance at a national level (either because of systematic polling error or changes in the race) wasn't working properly. It's designed to start high then decay as we get closer to the election, but stop decaying at a certain point because the risk of a polling miss doesn't decay.

It was continuing to decay and has been essentially zero for the last few weeks. My best guess for when the error was introduced is 10/3 or 10/4 because Trump's odds dropped appreciably on that day. I'm sure I was just doing the same thing as today, monkeying with the parameters but neglected to change it back.

Ironically, the current output aligns more closely with my feels for the race, but I'm still pissed as ****.

jules got dat good hair

Namath just likes his white folk pale as new snow and his black folk darker than blue, it's all gravy.

Hope you realize that the 0% in your model was the only thing getting most of us through the day, now alcohol is all that's left. Your predictions seem pretty bullish on Clinton compared to others but I do like how you have Florida pretty strongly in her corner, as that's the impression I'm getting despite 538 turning it red in their polls plus model. There have been a couple of polls favoring Trump but the average has been in Clinton's favor as far as I can tell.

Great quotes from another article on that page Fly linked to. Meet the Secretary of State of Alabama:

"Asked about automatic registration for people who turn 18, Merrill responded, “I don’t think that just because your birthday comes around, that you ought to be registered to vote.” He then listed a litany of voting rights advocates—including Rep. John Lewis, Martin Luther King, and Rosa Parks—and declared:

These people fought—some of them were beaten, some of them were killed—because of their desire to ensure that everybody that wanted to had the right to register to vote and participate in the process. I’m not going to cheapen the work that they did. I’m not going to embarrass them by allowing somebody that’s too sorry to get up off of their rear end to go register to vote … because they think they deserve the right because they’ve turned 18.
(Lewis strongly supports automatic voter registration and is pushing a bill that would institute the initiative throughout the United States. In 1976, Lewis stood next to President Jimmy Carter as Carter unveiled his plan for nationwide automatic voter registration.)*

“To me,” Merrill continued, “that’s no different than giving them a trophy because they’ve played on the ball team.”

You only get a trophy if you win! And if you want to participate in the process, there’s a system for doing that. And we want to make sure that they have the ability to do that. And we’re going to help them have the opportunity to do it. But just because you turned 18 doesn’t give you the right to do anything.
Merrill then said, “I’m not attracted to lazy people or sorry people or people who don’t want to get involved.”

If you’re too sorry or lazy to get up off of your rear and to go register to vote, or to register electronically, and then to go vote, then you don’t deserve that privilege. As long as I’m Secretary of State of Alabama, you’re going to have to show some initiative to become a registered voter in this state."



TL/DR: According to one of the main people responsible for running in elections in Alabamam, if you aren't willing to actually take a beating in order to vote, you're no better than those lazy millennials with the god damn participation trophies.

Maybe more appropriate....

butnahhhh there is an improbable hope in my heart




(voting scene from The Wire LFG)

curt mayfield party itt soda pop and potato chips

The odds are calculated from I think 20,000 sims. 20,000 isn't *that* much. So maybe the *real* odds were 31.4% before and 31.7% after. Clinton ran hot in the first sim, Trump in the latter.

Appropriating civil right leaders in order to do the things they explicitly advocated against since 1964

So, I can vote tomorrow.

Exactly what is on the ballot... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Also, the actual official site for the state literally has 'click here for more information' <404>. Good job, South Carolina.

A week old, but I just saw this linked in a NYT article and don't think it was posted here before - White Trump voters more likely to oppose mortgage relief program when it's presented with a photo of a black person

Inso0 be like "hurr durr dumb liberals seeing race everywhere"

I'd love to have an election forecast model that builds in early voting as it happens. Seems like a huge chunk of data that just goes mostly untouched. We're still relying on polls and assumptions when 20% of the electorate in some states has already voted.

I really dont think there is much of this (I know enough clowns IRL to know there is some). I think poll fluctuations reflect enthusiasm fluctuations and agree with Sam Wang that the race has remained pretty much stable throughout.

That voting purge **** makes me ****ing furious. Every 4 years we go through the same crap and nobody does ****. Suck a dick. Eat my ass you vote purging scum.

The typical dumb right wingery response to these kinds of things (e.g., white people show hostility to things when associated with black people) is that it's black people's fault for committing so many crimes and doing so much thuggery that white people get upset when they see black people doing neutral things.

Screw this, I'm officially freaking out now that goofball isn't 100% any more.

Yes. If Trump wins, the blame is 99% on American people. They will never be called out properly. After the first year, when it becomes super obvious that his presidency is a catastrophe, we will see blame go to the media, Russia, Comey, Clinton for being secretive, Clinton for putting on a bad campaign (she didn't), everyone but the innocent, precious voters. Bull****. These stupid mother ****ers need to be called to the carpet.

The media has been an absolute joke of course, but at this point it is very clear what this man is. Ignorant, narcissistic, bigoted, stupid, petty, volatile, childish, misogynistic, the list goes on. The sad fact is that this country is full of awful people. I mean, I still think he will lose, but the fact that it is even in doubt is an indictment of how ****ed up this country is.

Are you new to politics? In the USA some things are strictly forbidden, like using racial slurs, unless you do it in the right way, like using it against Natives.

Same goes for election rigging. If you prevent 2 or 3 million legitimate voters from getting to the polls that's A-Ok these days. One illegitimate voter making it to the polls who wasn't supposed to though, that's cause for concern.

The article I pulled that link from is worth a read: Trump's Inconvenient Racial Truth

Its thesis is:

Also with lots of stuff about the different ways we talk about the problems of black people vs white people. I'm reversing the order of these two passages but the second really solidifies the first:

It's also important to note that he's senile