I do think that there are some voters who may wait for election day and reluctantly vote for Trump but want to make sure there isn't a November surprise. (for example: a Trump n-word tape).

The 50-80% deals with the fact that they opened just one polling location in various counties. in most counties that didnt do that, turnout was above 2012. In those that did, they opened up more locations last Thursday. And so they have souls to the polls for the first time there last Sunday (note the article is 5 days old).

edit- it was and will be the only "souls to the polls". Early voting ends 11/5 on Sat. Read http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...-voting-230573

The most disturbing part of this article isn't even where a sitting Senator tells gun owners they need to "put a bullseye" on Clinton.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/31/politi...ers/index.html

The WAPO tracking poll has Clinton favorables more negative than Trump and 36 percent of likely voters dislike both. That seems like a poll that is both volatile and skews Trump.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...-voting-230573

more info in NC early voting

The national tracking polls today were great for trump the state polls show him down at huge levels in Pennsylvania, Virginia and others. I'd put them as a wash and say nothings changed. She's maybe lost a point or two at most and it's 3 to 3.5 nationally. Trump is never getting 47% though.

As far as the economics dispute I think the real risk of having interest rates this low for this long is not inflation but a massive increase in overall debt (which has occurred since 2008 both at the individual and government level) and also the fact there are no interest rate decreases available to the Fed for the next economic shock. Both of those things have consequences but you won't see them until the next big economic crisis occurs.

As far as inflation goes, it has largely been balanced out by the QE simply maintaining the pre-2008 level of consumption. As mentioned median household incomes are less than they were 15-20 years ago when adjusted for inflation so the average household has less ability to consume only supplemented currently by cheap debt.

To head off the strawman at the pass the economy is much better than 2008 and the people responsible for that deserve credit. My point is just that the economy, while better, will likely face some significant challenges going forward.

My problem with that poll isn't that it's Trump +1, it's that it started HRC +12.

It's one thing to be the LA Times where it began Trump++ and you can at least follow the trends +/- 4 points or so one direction or the other, but it's totally something else to trend 13 points in one direction in one to two weeks.

nh, a bit ashamed that I got it.

Haven't studied it deeply but it seems like Trump's numberhas went from 39 to 46 in the last week, and Clinton from 48 to 45. Seems just highly sensitive to this enthusiasm question:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump...ry?id=43199459

...and it's feeding into their results.

Also note Romney was +1 in this same poll 1 week out in 2012 and then swung to Obama +3 in its final iteration. Just a swongy poll imo.

I wrote a quick guide to early-reporting states in the election for friends who are following it and know nothing of American politics. I'll repost this in the gameday thread. Knowledgeable people feel free to tell me if I'm wrong:

The three Eastern states to watch are Pennsylvania (PA), New Hampshire (NH) and North Carolina (NC):

- Winning PA + NC means Clinton is 99.9% to win (this is the most likely scenario).
- Winning PA + NH (but not NC) leaves Clinton around 90% to win.
- PA alone reduces Clinton to a slight favourite.
- Losing PA but winning NC is far from ideal but might be OK still.
- Losing PA + NC would make Clinton a huge underdog. This is the scenario where Clinton would need to scrounge up a win in Florida, the problem is that losing PA + NC heavily implies that Florida is also not going to go well.

All that tracking poll shows is that there probably has been somewhat of a shift towards trump in the last week or so. Actual polls like the nbc poll yesterday show a slight shift as well but still have a large HRC lead. I think it is safe to assume she still will win by 3-5 pts in the popular vote and cruise to a fairly easy electoral college win. Nothing about the state polling or early voting numbers I have seen have led me to believe otherwise.

From PA early vote 2012 http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/1...mes-E-DAY-GOTV From Today
Seems to suggest that 60% will vote early. Idk if that is correct or if the above 2012 was the absolute final number. But it seems like Dems up 6.2 in 2012, and 13.5 now.

Regarding the Christian right

Much of the reaction against a significant movement for a constitutional amendment to allow prayer in school in the late 60's was from religious leaders who didn't approve of prayer so shallow and generic (in order to be so non-denomenational) that it was a mockery of religion.

On the other side was a large mix of mountebanks, people mad about civil rights, people terrified of godless communists, and politicians pandering for votes or caving into pressure who insisted on people being vaguely but devoutly religious and how that was American way.

(One Nation Under God by Kevin Kruse)

Are the Obama's scheduled to stop in NC? Seems like they should be. Michelle one day and Barrack the next.

Today I'm going to go into work and tell my boss to **** off when he asks me to do an essential function of my job. I'm sure I shouldnt have any problem keeping my position after that, right?

.

this week is going to be interminable

Thanks Anatta.

6. Trump University fraud case hits courtroom this month

7. Donald J. Trump rape case hits courtroom next month

Bernie is on a 12! state blitz. Started in NH at 2 colleges and a high school in one day.

Trump was in New Mexico, and MI then WI...

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assuming the democrats retake the senate RGB, Breyer, and Kennedy need to retire within the next like 4 months

Giant Meteor 2016.

Those take place after election day fwiw.

Is this what we have to look forward to the next 4 years?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-families.html