Keeping something like that secret requires forethought and impulse control, that already filters out like 99 out of 100 voters, let alone Trump fans.

Either hilarious troll or major facepalm.

I would think the closet Trump voters, if they exist, are easily cancelled out by women who publicly support Trump because their husband/BF does, but will vote Hillary when alone in that booth on Election Day

This seems like a completely flawed analysis. Of course the Trump supporters in the primary had zero fear of being outted, they were and still are probably his most vocal support. The general election is a different race and my fear of closet Trump support are the people who didn't vote for him in the primary.

Why? It's bad. What I said is not the only reason. Also, if you are allowed to include dead people, why not say "the same people who supported slavery." If you're not bound by reality, why not equate your opponent with even scarier people?

You are a very literal person. The "they" is conservatives. Not actual individuals.

Mayo,

I believe in you. You should believe in yourself. Ohio is locked up. I believe you have the power to flip Kentucky.

Fair enough to call me literal (I'm a math guy, but let's not dredge up that horrible derail again). But if the "they" merely refers to conservatives, then I still don't like it, since then it would have almost nothing to do with Trump as a uniquely terrible candidate. It would apply better to a generic Republican than Trump.

Go spend 5 minutes on twitter and get back to me on this.

Trump fans CANNOT shut up about how they're the SILENT majority.

He is the candidate that 'they' (the party), nominated and support. Thus, he is they.

Think it can be individuals too if you look at it as history judging them. They are going to make that list and history will judge them.


Trump voters will be look at in a similar light as the Know Nothings and those who supported them. But know one knows about the know nothings so that doesn't work...

Ok, I'm not going to reread the article to see if you're right, but why wouldn't it cut both ways? In pro-Trump social circles, supporting Hillary is ridicule-worthy because Benghazi Emails Pay-to-Play, in addition to the fact that God hates Hillary. Also +1 ChachiArcola's point about women voters.

Worth noting that my model assumes state outcomes are correlated as well. No model that doesn't should be taken seriously.

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/trumps...show-facebook/



http://www.businessinsider.com/tomi-...intons-2016-10

Donald Trump doesn't do acceptance. He may concede in some remarks on election night. The next time he gets a hold of his phone, everything was completely rigged. He's going to throw everyone, with the exception of his progeny, under the bus. He will never stop throwing them under the bus. It'll be glorious.

The GOP must do something about the conservative media industrial complex if it wants to survive

Amazing article. Lol at the idea the Republican party has any leverage against right-wing media.

the Air Force Museum is great though

I'm going to go ahead and guess that you live in a blue State and County and City. Because they are not quiet. As of right now they are just totally defeated. Acceptance kicking in. These people are not Donald Trump, they are (willingly) in his coalition. Maybe you have some idea that they are going to capture local Nature Reserves, and make their last stand. Not at all. They have simply tuned out, accepted defeat. They'll get back on the horse and fight again. First, they have to rebuild the coalition. But it's pretty hard when 20-30% (?) of them are bomb-throwing Trump die hards of the ideological variety. Not to be mistaken for the actual bomb throwers.

Republicans think the storm is subsiding. It hasn't even started. We're talking about heat strikes.

I heard somebody argue yesterday basically that if Fox News and Breitbart were removed from the earth instantly, right-wing media would keep going and rebuild itself just fine through Reddit, imgur and Facebook memes/fake news stories. I don't know what the party can particularly do about it.

Obama is crushing it on behalf of Clinton.

If there were saner right wing media the derplorables might be exposed to other viewpoints. The problem for the GOP is that right wing media is very profitable.

Two things:

1) Some decent number of public polls are either

- automated (e.g., you are listening to pre-recorded options, just mashing telephone buttons and the responses collected by a machine)
or
- online polls

To believe in a Shy Trump Tory effect is to assume these people are lying to machines and stuff. I get that if Gallup goes out and takes live interviews and some old white has to talk to a young minority data collector, they might get their guard up admitting support for Trump. But I doubt that. More below. But we're saying these people realize they aren't talking to humans or are interacting with some kind of online survey and still lying about their true intentions. I mean, maybe that happens, but I'm skeptical.

2) Related, and my observation reeks obviously of confirmation bias but it seems like most of the Trump voters I know are super boisterous and proud of it and have precisely zero self-awareness they should be ashamed about it. Or they're proud they're bothering people.

I think once you reach the level of awareness that you realize most of polite society holds you in ill repute and disrespects you for supporting Trump, and that's something you care about, you're already most of the way off of the Trump bandwagon. The ~40% of Americans are segregated in white people hives and think they're solid, or don't care, or are misanthropic and aggressively refuting dominant social norms (e.g., the alt-right) is their whole motivation.

In sum, just not seeing the people who both have shame and are voting for Trump.

---------

None of that is to say the polls are definitely correct. Obviously there could be systemic under-counting of working class whites who often don't vote but will now. I think that's unlikely but it's a slightly different argument, namely that some populations are hard to reach and their behavior hard to model correctly. Which is different from saying people are actively hiding their Trump support from data collectors and pollsters.

For all those whose cares have been Trump's concern - the hoax goes on, the con endures, the scam still lives, and the grift shall never die.

And, yes, it's nice to see some sharper second-level thinkers finally get around to realizing the epistemic closure on the right has political consequences and rests at the feet of the right-wing media and the long con stuff (e.g., the whole "second and third layer narratives are just covering up for the lies up front" idea expressed in that article).

But then you have to get deep into hand-reading here and get to the next level, realize that the long-con is just the product of huge amounts of gullible idiots freely -- not just freely, HAPPILY handing out their money, time, and attention to complete bull****. There's your end problem. That isn't getting fixed anytime soon.

We love the top-down story model that there's some hucksters in a room somewhere creating this ****, but I think chain mails are the best example of how this stuff originates completely organically and without a profit motive. IMO the more you study it, and the more you realize that if Drudge or Breitbart or Rush got nuked from orbit, nothing would change since someone else would instantly fill the void, you're left to conclude this is entirely bottom-up. In fact there is already a decent amount of churn in the genre. Think of how the right is often migrating from Rush to FNC to Glenn Beck to Breitbart to get their fix, like every few years there's a new hotness on the right-wing derp scene. Huge percentage of Americans just want race war fantasies and paranoia and conspiratarding and whimsical tales of Mexico paying for that wall and refugees menacing their double wides and someone will sell it to them. They love it like some people love Game of Thrones or Star Wars or whatever.

The GOP can't fix that. No political party can. They can either cater to it, leverage them as best they can while trying to hide the fact they're doing it (1970s-2015 GOP), or find new voters. But they aren't going to fix it. It's intractable.

if he's serious about leveraging his post-presidency into correcting inefficiencies at the state level for dems... the long national nightmare that is the Republican relationship with Obama will not end with Clinton being sworn in. I believe him lol.