At this point maybe. I had a lot of success back in like June-July getting them to bet on Trump v. Hillary at even money though. Gonna be poppin' a couple bottles Nov. 9.

You don't seem to have any shame, so I doubt you're embarrassed.

I mean, you should be for such astounding intellectual dishonesty, but you won't be.

Throughout his life he has been vilified and treated as a joke by a huge number of people and large swathes of the press. What makes you think being president will curtail his ability to surround himself with sycophants?

(Your Roman history could use a little more nuance, the equivalent of Trumps base in Rome were easily swayed with bread and circuses)

Yeah this. Hillary just needs to run out the clock at this point. No domestic terror attacks please!

you keep saying this like it's a proven fact that terror attacks help trump

all they do is highlight how little he knows about anything, his complete lack of experience, and the total lack of humanity he displays when patting himself on the back before the corpses are cold

Something like the Orlando shooting in a church would put the country at a fever pitch against Muslims, which absolutely would help Trump. He can just say "See - I was right!"

Just try to imagine 50 dead Christians - kids, old people. You know, like when Sunnis blow up a Shiite wedding, or the US bombs a funeral. People don't like to feel powerless after something like that. Trump is offering a solution - ban all Muslims. What is Hillary offering?

The reason I feel pretty sure about this, is that I know there would be a part of me which would want to vote for a strongman like Trump after something like that. I wouldn't do it, but I can't deny the emotional pull would be there. Few hate Trump more than me, so if I'm feeling the pull - what's going to happen with these voters who keep flipping every time Hillary has a fainting spell?

OK, so I agree that Trump's policy is prejudiced against Syrian's out of a fear of terrorism. You can all call that racism if you want.

Re deportation, you quoted Trump's web cite saying, "Move criminal aliens out day one." Sounds fine to me. I take "criminal" aliens to mean those with criminal records other than illegal entry. Do you think he means all aliens who entered illegally?

Points numbers 2 and 5 that you quoted appear to me to be talking about enforcement against new (incoming) illegal immigrants. I have no problem with those points. I assume you're not saying enforcement is racism. How many have been deported under Obama, 500,000? (I forget the number.)

Re stop and frisk, I don't know what Trump can do. He's not a Mayor, governor, etc. Are the FBI or ICE going to be doing this stop and frisk? I don't think so. He appoints judges who try and get it to be allowed by cities that implement it? Maybe.

There is certainly a good point here on your side of the issue. I don't want civil rights violated in stop and frisks. That said, there are lots of ways to improve policing (more involvement, more presence) that will help the law abiding people in inner cities. I feel like Trump will move policing in a net beneficial direction if he moves it at all, mostly just by encouraging more police in high violent crime neighborhoods.

The country is at a fever pitch against Muslims, suzzer.

Especially if it was Hillary that did the shooting herself. That would really help Trump.

Thanks.

pokerodox now treating exposure to Trump's policy positions as like, an improv prompt.

"I love Big Daddy."

"But he says he'll do X, Y, and Z"

"Ok, ok. Give me a minute.

Got it.

X is good

Y is good.

and... Z is good"

whats trumps numbers on black voters at this point? I remember it was 2% some time ago...

Yeah and it would get much much worse if something like I described happened. Also the people in the middle who don't pay attention to much would gravitate to Trump.

Yes it's the "thriving free market in children" phenomenon.

it's the same 5% or less it's always been, the only question is turnout %

Hispanic % keeps drifting downwards though. will be hard for him to break 10% outside of Florida

I dont think it's quite quite that simple. When we see a terrorist incident we tend to see a move towards safe hands and the 'we're not going to let them force us to give up our (in this case American) values'. It's when there's a series of attacks (or maybe an extreme enough one) that the authorities look like they are losing control. Then there seems to be a fast gain for the more extreme parties.

There's also the slower impact of repeated bias against Muslims and immigrants but that's pretty much a done deal now as far as the election goes.

Had this exact exchange with Work Trump Supporter (roughly 10 days ago, at peak trump). Work Trump Supporter is also comfortable gambling large amounts.

Him: Trump is winning
Me: No he's not, but if you want I'd bet up to $10k at even money on Clinton
Him: No thanks

Upon further review that Arizona poll is definitely garbage, though that Steiner line made it worth posting.

2016 lol

Why not offer him +500 on Trump? Would be easy money if you have faith in the model. During the 08 and 12 elections I was offering way better than market rates on McCain and Romney just to get the action down, as I had faith in my model and knew I was printing even giving very 'generous' odds.

Because it would be better if he had accepted evens?

How did that printing money work out for you

you can also skip the model part and just put money down on clearly +EV things

It worked fantastically? I spent a month in Hawaii to celebrate.

*edit* also, but he did not accept. Plus personally I think offering bets that you know are extremely far off from the market price is fairly scummy behavior, depending on the exact situation.

who was that other briefly active conservative account who liked to pretend he won lots of money gambling on politics, but was clearly lying?

Seems like he got banned a while ago. Just don't remember who it was.

pipes?