538 has Clinton 66% and PEC has Clinton 99%. I doubt anything posted in this thread has been that Bold.

What odds are you offering on Florida, now gone for good for HRC, and will you escrow?

Predictit is up to 76-72, it briefly dipped into the high 60s earlier in the week(there is an odd spread between Kaine VP, Hillary POTUS, and Democrat WH because of liquidity issues)

NO

You've got NV and NH backwards

HRC 357. Takes OH, FL, AZ, NC, IA. Too much of Trump's support looks like people who don't vote and Russian trolls. +9 HRC popular vote.

That surely is bold at this stage of the game, since no one anywhere has her winning the popular vote by that margin, or the state of OH period.

HRC 357, that's not Bold, that's downright Crazy

takes a fool to remain sane

I'm a bit more optimistic than this but this is my final 'single best chance to happen' map before the election



GLA

What happened to the striped up Nebraska?

I have not messed around w the map forever and don't feel sharp enough to make a legitimate analysis but I just ran through it and have Clinton at 322.

I think Clinton will be closer to 330 than to 270 so over 300.

I did guess a ~350 win a few weeks ago and still give it a long shot chance.

I thought that polls still had FL as a toss-up?

This is pretty much the election night sweat map here.

your trollfu needs work ikes

If Michigan turns out to be a sweat, Hillary is in trouble.

^^ Judging by how many people are planning to campaign in Michigan Monday, I guess it might be a sweat.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...bb4_story.html

-

You could of said that about Iowa looking at 2012 results but this election is throwing off consistent voting swings across the country being translated into individual states the same.

I wasn't trolling you, and you quoted your "in may" map on October 12th with this comment:

This better be false. I've just made a charity bet with the most obnoxious christian conservatives in my FB feed based on them toting some bull**** GOP funded poll result showing MI to be within a point, and I REALLY want them to be donating $50 to the Clinton Foundation.

My $75 to their $50, someone please reassure me that I got the WAY best of this bet.

Obv. Dem Michigan in the markets is like 5/1, not 3/2.

Just wanted to make sure there wasn't some horrible recent development I overlooked. Like I just read that Trump is apparently convinced he's got some life there as he's dedicating time there before Election, and I think I saw an Ipsos poll showing some scary numbers...

Best charity outside of Clinton foundation to choose? Guy really hates Muslims so think I'd be mistaken to not focus on this.

I just posted about that in the election thread and think Clinton Foundation is perfect, real poetry to it, but Zakat Foundation of America if you really want to go that direction, it's named after an Islamic religious practice and some of the money goes to explicitly Islamic stuff (Ramadan etc).

Trump has to poke a hole in the Firewall somewhere, NH won't be enough given the loss of NV. The problem with campaigning in PA is that what Trump really needs there is simply for Clinton's base to not turn up in Philly. He can't make that happen by campaigning. Colorado is a similar story, plus early voting isn't looking great. Michigan is the next most logical state to try to make something happen. It's a longshot, but thats the nature of all his paths to victory.