Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread - Page 23 - Sports Betting

I know, try to hold off but can't help myself sometimes. Think it was the Falcons -8.5 late Friday night when it was like -9 (-108), or maybe better, on Pinnacle that got me to make those bets. Think I was trying to get as many combinations as possible on that.

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11-09-2010 , 02:06 AM

#552

kordoISback

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,785

this week was really needed,

2nd half of season run, here i come

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11-09-2010 , 06:54 AM

#553

Malekai

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 271

If I have a book offering 6.5 Point teasers @ -120, is this -EV to use when wonging? A win and a push= push.

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11-09-2010 , 11:29 AM

#554

Colms

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 693

I'm having a hard time finding a book that doesn't have 6.5 teasers @ -120

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11-09-2010 , 02:40 PM

#555

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malekai

If I have a book offering 6.5 Point teasers @ -120, is this -EV to use when wonging? A win and a push= push.

Most of the time, not always.
If you're in it for the blind system plays, then yeah it is -EV.

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11-09-2010 , 03:16 PM

#556

MyTurn2Raise

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

hrm... with a Thursday night game, might get on the hook with lots of bad legs this week

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11-09-2010 , 03:41 PM

#557

Malekai

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 271

I know we shouldn't bet early. I am still waiting on my book so please don't kill me here....

So far, are the the lines to look at?

Texans +1.5
Ravens +1.5

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11-09-2010 , 04:51 PM

#558

mulebennett

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,886

There's probably going to end up being 7 Wongable games with all the lines at pk or -1 right now.

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11-09-2010 , 06:37 PM

#559

Peeig

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 894

Quote:

Originally Posted by mulebennett

There's probably going to end up being 7 Wongable games with all the lines at pk or -1 right now.

its gonna be torture sweating all of thems

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11-12-2010 , 02:30 AM

#560

Lego05

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Ravens a good start.

Did other people put in some teasers early to include the Ravens?

Ravens +7.5
Colts -1.5
Dolphins +8
Lions +9
Texans +7

The Texans might not have been a good idea. Looks like the regular line might go to +1.5 at some point though.

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11-12-2010 , 02:42 AM

#561

Iowa!

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Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

Dude, Texans +7 is awful. They may round into a viable option by Sunday (they are already some places), but that does you no good as you're stuck with +7. In fact, you should be rooting for that line to move the other way, LOTS.

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11-12-2010 , 03:11 AM

#562

Lego05

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Yea I dunno what I was thinking. Somehow I got confused at the moment I was making bets. They look like they might go to 7.5 and they will be a good bet then ..... so maybe I'll actually be putting them in more teasers on Sunday morning. But yea I was putting the bets in real quick and I messed up. Maybe I felt like I was gonna run good or something, lol. Gotta hope for that now I guess.

Damn, that was stupid. I was hoping it wasn't too stupid.

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11-12-2010 , 08:44 AM

#563

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

Where did everyone get 1.5 on balt last night?

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11-12-2010 , 11:33 AM

#564

shipitkthx

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

You are drastically overestimating how bad this, in fact its probably not bad at all. The likelihood of Texans closing +1.5 vs. PK is basically an equal chance as far as teasers are concerned. (Since we aren't capping the game and don't have an opinion on what the fair line actually is) +7 isn't that horrible of a bet to be stuck if you need another leg off a Thursday game. In a vacuum teasing off mediocre legs that can be hedged off later to get more down on a game played days in advance is very +EG.

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11-12-2010 , 01:59 PM

#565

MyTurn2Raise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Poogs

Where did everyone get 1.5 on balt last night?

there were a handful of reputable books with it-- BetJamaica, Bookmaker off the top of my head

sweet game to start

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11-12-2010 , 02:24 PM

#566

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by shipitkthx

I must have been miscalculating the edge on Ravens +7.5 last night then because according to my maths they were not strong enough to support a bad leg at standard good payout odds. Thanks for posting this though, it's definitely something I should think more about.

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11-12-2010 , 02:31 PM

#567

Poogs

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Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

Hmm, I was watching the screen for a while last night and never saw it go past -1. Did you bet it earlier in the day/week? Did it steam up to 1.5 right before kickoff? Or is the sbr screen not reliable?

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11-12-2010 , 02:33 PM

#568

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poogs

It was definitely +1.5 at BM about 15 minutes before kickoff. BJAM and The Greek kept switching back and forth.

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11-12-2010 , 03:01 PM

#569

ProfessorBen

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Quote:

Originally Posted by shipitkthx

this. Even if the line moves to +2.5 efficient, having +7 still covers 70.7%. Breakeven in itself, but still worth it to let you get money on legs that are about to disappear in play. Obviously, the opposite result can happen and you can have the nuts with it moving to -1 or greater.

lol @ a semi-line movement freeroll being TURRIBLE.

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11-12-2010 , 03:33 PM

#570

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

Does that 70.7% include pushes? Because the Pinny alternate market for last night's game, which was very close to +2.5 efficient towards the end, was +7.5 -267/235 10 minutes before kick-off, so either that market/that line is not very efficient (very possible) or that cover rate (if pushes aren't included) is overly optimistic.

I'm not trying to be difficult here. You guys obviously have more experience with this than me. I'm just afraid that I'm way under-betting these BS teasers and would like to correct this ASAP if that's the case.

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11-12-2010 , 04:08 PM

#571

ProfessorBen

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alternate line markets(derivatives in general), even at pinny are often not efficient.

i can't tell you for certain without seeing when the last move on the alternate line was, but it's likely that with 10 cents of steam in the last hour on atlanta, if forced i would assume that the alternate line is not efficient. especially when the total is about as normal it can be, there's no reason not to use simple push % for these calculations.

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11-12-2010 , 05:18 PM

#572

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 25,024

Yay, maybe it wasn't that stupid. My only hope was the other legs were strong enough to make up for it.

I didn't really do it on purpose this time but happy it's alright. Hopefully will work out too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poogs

I bet it at BetJamaica a few hours before kickoff and it was +1.5. I think later when I looked right before kickoff it was back to +1.

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11-12-2010 , 05:56 PM

#573

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

there's no reason not to use simple push % for these calculations.

You aren't advocating using the SBR HPC for these are you?

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11-12-2010 , 06:08 PM

#574

MyTurn2Raise

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

roughingthepunter has some good push charts in the first few threads in subforum "the office"

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11-12-2010 , 06:17 PM

#575

Iowa!

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Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

roughingthepunter has some good push charts in the first few threads in subforum "the office"

Thanks. I've got DB but started to doubt my findings after seeing that ALT line last night. I'm probably over thinking things here. I guess there is no reason (except less variance) to lay -267 on something you can easily get for -244.

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