complex question lego05
the key is to have an accurate push chart so you can estimate what pct you are gaining with the tease
lots of debate about how many years you use for data and how you smooth the data out
Wong touches upon it briefly in
Sharp Sports Betting
Yao has a few chapters were he creates push charts in
Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting
of course, there are easy cheats.
SBR tools has some relevant push charts with its half point calculator.
Kdog posted a link in post #150 itt with discussion on it.
there is this recently posted chart at
roughingthepunter
of course, one would like to wait as close to kickoff as possible before placing the teasers as they are based off of gaining a valued range on the closing line. Near kickoff, both pinny and 5d will put up some alternative spreads where one can calculate the no vig price at 7.5 or 3.5 spread. Much easier to just add in the push on the 8 or 3 to those numbers to get an accurate measure of the likely win rate of the teaser leg.
Once you know how often you expect the teaser leg to win, it's a matter of using kelly to determine the best bets for estimated bankroll growth. Peeig put up some good links itt on how to do that.
Yes, this is a lot of work. But knowing how is most the battle. Actually executing it is much easier and just tedious.